• German Federal Election 2013

    A dedicated thread to the German Federal Election September 22nd 2013:

    While Angela Merkel has become a figure of hate in many European states struggling under austerity, the Christian democratic union and it's Bavarian sister party the Christian socialist union look set to stay the largest party in the Bundestag possibly makings gains of over 5%, while voters potentially fleeing their coalition partners the liberal party (FDP/yellow).

    The CDU/CSU (black) have been polling from high 30% to low 40% while main rivals the socialist party (SPD/red) are languishing in the mid 20% range. The main shifts will be amongst smaller parties, the greens who made large gains in the federal state elections including becoming the largest party in the CDU heartland of Baden-Württemberg are only polling small gains of about 3 - 5% (They got 10% of the vote in 2009 election) while the FDP could possibly be knocked out of the Bundestag as they're hovering about the 5% mark. It looks like a meltdown for the FDP after a record of 14.6% in the 2009 election. The left (red) could drop a few % from 11% in 2009 election.
    The main electoral issues at the moment are the NSA/Snowden, the economy, Europe, ...

    The election hasn't begun in earnest yet, so upsets are possible but unlikely. Merkel is personally popular in Germany while the SPD candidate Peer Steinbruck is not and has already been through a few scandals since being announced as SPD Kanzlerkandidat (Chancellor candidate).

    Going from current polling a grand coalition (black/red) is the most likely outcome even if both parties are against it publicly. There is potential for more exotic mixes such as a black/green coalition, black/yellow/green. The preferred coalition partner of the SPD is the greens but they don't have the numbers according to current polling and the preferred coalition partner of CDU/CSU is FDP but they might not even make it into the Bundestag. SPD could also consider red/red/green but the SPD are reluctant to associate with the more left wing "die Linke" on the national stage. While the greens wouldn't work with the FDP.

    The pirate party and alternative for Germany (AFD) are languishing below the 5% margin both about 3% and thus unlikely to enter the Bundestag.

    It's difficult to speculate what affect the most likely outcome will have on German foreign or EU policy or what affect it will have on Ireland. Steinbruck as vice-chancellor/finance minister comes from the conservative wing of the SPD, he has criticised stimulus before and public debt.

    The German government after the election might be a bit more lenient but it's entirely speculative.

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    This article was originally published in forum thread: German Federal Election 2013 started by kvran. You can leave a comment on this article by visiting the original post.