Kildare North should in theory be easy enough to call. The Fitzpatrick seat will be lost to either Scully or Murphy, I would lean towards Scully who would be better suited for transfers in a General Election scenario. All of the rest should be able to hold on.



Kildare South won't be so cut and dry for Fine Gael as many of you think. Neither of the Fianna Fail Sean's will be easily shifted. Labour to hold the seat no problem.

Fine Gael should run Heydon, but at convention anything can happen and Daly could end up on the ticket again, he hasn't lost the taste for it you know. The other candidate will be a toss up between Nolan or O'Donnell. Both will be aiming to knock out the weaker of the Fianna Fail T.D.'s Sean Power which will be a seriously big ask for any young first timer. Sean O'Fearghell will be safe given his vote the last time and the fact that he concerns himself more with work on the ground than in the Dail. The locals in Newbridge won't turf out Power so hastily either.

On other matters raised. I don't think Paddy Kennedy will run, if he does he'll quickly find out that a General Election is a completely different animal than the locals. Also the government will run it's full term because neither the backbenchers nor the Greens are going anywhere!

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Benjamin Disreali

good analysis Effing Effer....thing to remember is that Power is not from Newbridge he just acts like he is. Nolan is from newbridge and well known in the same circles and among the same demagraphic as power.
I think FG should run Nolan, even if just as a spoiler to take out power.

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Nolan V's O'Donnell???


Nothing like a bit of internal blood letting to entertain the crowds. It will be interesting to see which of them the Fine Gael delegates choose, plus will O'Donnell's actions at the last convention be held against him next time?


Power

Perception is everything! Most Newbridge people see Sean Power as a Newbridge T.D. even if he is from Caragh, and in the words of the great Fr. Fintan Stack "that's all that matters!".

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Benjamin Disreali

I for one do not think that Kildare is as cut and dried as some commentators predict.

Kildare North:
I doubt if Fitzpatrick will run again. Brady will be the FF standard bearer and will probably hold.

Emmet Staag will more than likely splutter on for another term. Might consider a sweeper candidate.

Durkan has for years scraped in and squatted on that FG seat without either giving the local organisation or a half decent successor a chance to groom. Poor local result in Celbridge really hampers his chances of reelection. Yes, Scully did well in the locals, but FG cannot be complacent about their seat in Ke nth.

Kildare South:

2 solid FF's hard to shift. Jack Wall should surely pass on the mantle to the son, as he's of pensionable age himself. FG have currently no seat. Easiest option is to select only one candidate. Yes they did very well in the locals in Kil Sth, but the GE is a different kettle of fish. I would favour Tony O' Donnell personally, but it remains to be said how well the potentials establish themselves in the area in the next 12 months.

FG could and maybe should run two, to take out FF, who are really entrenched because of the geographical balance in the county.
Wall will certainly hand over.
Would Heydon be looking for a GE nomination.
Where is O'Donnell's heartland?

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I would have to agree that Wall will hand over, most likely to his son. Dynasties aren't the preserve of Finna Fail and Fine Gael it seem's

Heydon will definitely be looking for the Dail nomination. Word I have is that he is actively talking about it already and sounding people out. But given the population in his area he could only ever be a sweeper, as I can't see him taking out SO'F.

As for O'Donnell. Don't let the surname distract you. His father is from Donegal, but his mother's family are very much local.. I should remind posters that O'Donnell is originally from Newbridge (unlike Power, as mentioned above) and has also spent many years living in Milltown. Currently he is living in Kildare Town, where he has in fairness, seriously imbedded himself into the local community over the last three years. Not a bad little triangle to have as a heartland! Strong family connections in Newbridge, Kildare Town, Rathangan, Milltown, Allenwood, Monasterevin and Athy that go back generations. On an aside, I got a nice little giggle when I read the Kildare Nationalist in work last week. A lovely photo of young Heydon with Mr's. Wright who is a strong Fine Gael supporter and will be 100 very soon. If my history of Kildare politics serves me correctly at all, her late husband was a member of the Blueshirts and a former Fine Gael councillor, but more importantly she's O'Donnell's Grand Aunt.

As for Spike, word among the Fine Gael heads in Newbridge is that he isn't interested in running for the Dail, despite serious encouragement. Can anyone confirm this as true or denounce it as nonsence?

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Benjamin Disreali

Would Kildare not be a large swing constituency with young and disaffected commuters in so called 'Deckland'. This area, and Meath, supported FF heavily last time out, I can't see them voting as much for them next time out.

FG should kick themselves if they don't pick up two seats in Kildare next time.

Effing Effer you have some local knowledge fair play to you.
Spike senior never went for the Dsail that I know of, so maybe junior wont either.
If O'Donnell is from Newbridge, his profile isnt as high there as might be, and if Im right he has been elected in a different LEA.
But definitely having the Kildare Town and Milltown and Newbridge lick is great, especially if he can highlight the Newbridge side of that triangle soon.
Also probably the demagraphic shift in Kildare with more outsiders coming in might make the geogrpahical bit a little less relevant.
Hetydon would have a good profile in GAA circles, which should not be underestimated. He was secretary I think of his club, which would mean he would be dealing withe people from all over the constituency.
In tersm of the Dail, his base is very much the same as that which Rainsford Hendy had, and Hendy was only ever a sweeper for Dukes, the Kildare ctown candidate, so a pattern emerges. Buts aying that Heydon probably has a better electoral profile that Hendy ever did.
FG have also opened an office in Newbridge, as a first step to establishing its presence in the town.

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Fitzpatrick will run again - no obvious successor and worked hard over so many years to get it to just bow out after one term. Alot of his vote will hold up, so he can't be completely ruled out. Altough I do accept that he is the weaker of the two Fianna Fail T.D.'s

Stagg will hold on, but who's coming after him for Labour?

Agreed on your final comment. Many Fine Gael grassroot's in Kildare North seem to think they have a second seat in the bag. And I've seen first hand in Laois/Offaly what that type of thinking in Fine Gael supporters can have on Polling Day. Ref: Tom Parlon.

Would see Wall's son holding the seat. Can't see any of Fine Gael's young guns taking out either of the Fianna Fail T.D.'s just yet. The core vote was allowed to drop to far due to ridiculous candidate selection in 2007. It will take a good few years putting in serious spadework in the Council and at least one good General Election under the belt before it happens for them.

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Benjamin Disreali

I know martin heydon through the GAA, but what age would odonnell be?

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