Quote:
Originally Posted by apkavanagh Only for the fact that Sinn Fein haven't contested Emo in recent local elections, Aidan Mullins would be very well placed to make a gain this time around. But, that said, given the change in the socio-demographic make-up of the electoral area (especially in Port), the current economic climate, his longer experience in community activities in Port relative to some of the other candidates, it would still be worth putting a few bob on him to win the seat here in June, possibly even at the expense of Cribbin?
It also begs the question as to why SF in Laois are so conservative in their candidate selection strategies. It may well be a case of managing their limited financial and personnel resources, but in retrospect the decision to contest so few electoral areas in 2004 looks like having been a bad decision; as well as building up more of a support base for Stanley in 2007 it would also have given their LE candidates more of a base to fight these elections on. This time SF are contesting 4 of the 5 electoral areas: I think they are missing an opportunity in not competing in Borris in Ossory and in only running Brian Stanley in Portlaoise (he will easily top the poll with a significant surplus...which might be good news for someone like Jim O'Brien...)
BTW, Portarlington is getting very 'crowded' at the moment in terms of the amount of Port candidates now in the race: surely this will mean that Deegan will top the poll in Emo this time around? |
Interesting points.Just a small correction. Stanley in Portlaoise has a running mate in the town council area, Alan Hand. Proper vote management fo the shinners there will see him in with a good chance. I have made this point already that this is one reason that will see o Brien not do very well in the town council area.
Im not sure about there resources but i have said before that Sinn Fein in Laois have been to insular in their thinking and lacking in confidence. They may perform well in June but still only return 1 candidate. They have to take risks and think outside of that conservative box. if they are to make significamt gains.
The circumstances at present could not be better for them.
In relation to Deegan he may well top the poll, but who in Port has the ability to take votes right around the rest of the Emo electoral area? this may well decide the faith of the port based candiddate. I heard someone in the council say privately that mullins would take around 700 first preferences. Who else Port based would match this ?
Before I get shot down, please dont shoot the messenger. This came from someone who knows the area and its politics well.And its only a prediction