McCain pips Obama - 274 : 264

[hiding behind a poster]

That's not much of an answer, DR - I've gone through my point in some detail, so if you disagree you might at least point out where and why.

[Squire Allworthy]

He could equally galvanise a lot of people to go out and vote against him. All those hicks, bible thumping, gun owning, xenophobes in swing states. Or perhaps those who think that children should not be shelved or that the presidency really is above his pay grade.

The problem is the media love affair with him has ended and a lot of them are now asking questions they should have 6 months ago.

[smitchy2]

The basis of these polls first establishes an appropriate sample of people who will vote.
Talk of massive youth vote is hopeful but the pollsters are tracking this and it does not seem to be showing up massively so far.

McCain has definitely received a bounce since Obamas trip to Europe which although impressive here did not seem to resonate too well in the US.
McCain’s quick response to the Georgia crisis was also received well. Obama’s unfortunate timing on holiday has been perceived negatively and as another weakness on the commander in chief side.

It is unreal that McCain is on a par or just edging Obama in comparison with the Republican senate and congress polls.

The VP and conventions will be the 1st signs of mass interest by the general US public and by mid September the polls should be fairly accurate.

[Defeated Romanticist]

That's not much of an answer, DR - I've gone through my point in some detail, so if you disagree you might at least point out where and why.

Fair enough.

That's absolutely correct - and it perhaps applies even more significantly to the black vote, which also historically turns out in low numbers.

Not much lower than most other groups, concentrated in either safe democratic states or safe republican states.

This is one of the interesting things about American elections compared to those in other countries. The European average turnout is traditionally around the 65% mark

Turnout in 2004 was 61%. Not far off European standard.

- and when you take out all those who are unable to vote by virtue of being on holidays, working elsewhere on the day, being sick, having died since the final register was published etc, you're left with a relatively small percentage (about 15%, given that a full turnout is considered to be about 80% for the reasons stated above), that generally don't vote. In America you only get about a 50% turnout - which means there's a much larger grouping (about 30% of the electorate), who almost never vote. So if a candidate has a unique selling point among historic non-voters, he only has to dip into that pool to a small extent to completely change the electoral arithmetic.

We had that candidate. His name was George W Bush. He brought out the millions for their virgin vote.

And this is where Obama has a massive advantage. Firstly, he's black - so straightaway he has a unique selling point for a group (blacks) who are very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category.

Not really.

Secondly, he has massive appeal to students and other young voters - who are again very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Now he doesn't have to get those voters out to the same extent as other voter groups turn out, but if for example 30% of blacks vote this time, compared to 20% normally, then straightaway every national opinion poll, all of which are based on historic voter trends among different age groups, gender groups, income groups, ethnic groups etc, will substantially underestimate his vote. The same applies to young voters.

Where are you getting this "20% of blacks vote" figure, the youth vote won't turn out for Obama, he is soooo 5 minutes ago.

Then, turning to McCain, what are his unique selling points? One, he's old - but older people vote anyway, in a greater proportion than the national average, so there's fewer of them within that 30% who don't normally vote. Secondly, he's a decorated war veteran - but again, war veterans ALWAYS vote - being civic-minded, they see it as something that you should do.

He's old, and while the old always vote, they don't always vote for the Republicans, this time they will. He's pro-Israel, that's the Jewish (hence his strength in Florida and New Jersey) vote thank you very much. He likes America (apparently if you do and your opponant doesn't that an advatage for you, what would you expect from stupid yanks).

So again, there won't be many non-voting vets who will this time distort the national sample by voting for McCain because they identify with him. All the advantages are with Obama in this respect, and as such if polls were to show a dead heat by polling day, Obama would probably win by a relatively comfortable margin.

Except the polls actually overstated Obama in the primaries so the reverse is true. Unless Hussein is at least 7-10% ahead, he is toast.

That's what I meant by grasping at straws HBAP.

[smitchy2]

[/quote]Except the polls actually overstated Obama in the primaries so the reverse is true. Unless Hussein is at least 7-10% ahead, he is toast.

DR, while I agree with much of your analysis.
Calling Obama his middle name is obviously an attempt by the GOP to ramp up the Arab hate wing.
Not sure McCain would like to be called "Sidney" too much.

Anyway just looking forward to an interesting couple of weeks in the polls.

[Defeated Romanticist]

Except the polls actually overstated Obama in the primaries so the reverse is true. Unless Hussein is at least 7-10% ahead, he is toast.

DR, while I agree with much of your analysis.
Calling Obama his middle name is obviously an attempt by the GOP to ramp up the Arab hate wing.
Not sure McCain would like to be called "Sidney" too much.

Anyway just looking forward to an interesting couple of weeks in the polls.[/quote]
No that's not the reason I called him Hussein at all. I called him Hussein to demonstrate the childish and churlish reactions of the Obama supporters. No one cares that his middle name is Hussein. No one except the Obama supporters.

[smitchy2]

No that's not the reason I called him Hussein at all. I called him Hussein to demonstrate the childish and churlish reactions of the Obama supporters. No one cares that his middle name is Hussein. No one except the Obama supporters.

[Zyklon B]

Amazingly. despite leading McCain 5.8% (realclearpolitics.com), all that lies between them is Colorado: McCain 265 & Obama 273.

Electoral-vote.com sees Obama pulling away from McCain (still enjoying his post-convention bounce and what a modest bounce it was too). We'll see that true state of play in a fortnight's time.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Amazingly. despite leading McCain 5.8% (realclearpolitics.com), all that lies between them is Colorado: McCain 265 & Obama 273.

Electoral-vote.com sees Obama pulling away from McCain (still enjoying his post-convention bounce and what a modest bounce it was too). We'll see that true state of play in a fortnight's time.

It reflects the fact that all states, no matter how tiny their populations, have at least 3 EVs.

[junketman]

Well all these polls show that US democracy is flawed in that if you appeal enough to the loonies in society such as the fundamentalists, the war mongers, the mad, the gun toters, etc, you get elected as president.

Perhaps President Bush as a person isn't that bad after all and it's the US electorate (or rather the rednecks) that created Bush and shaped his policies. I am beginning to believe that myself now.