McCain pips Obama - 274 : 264

[Squire Allworthy]

Can't say I'm an expert on closeted homosexuals.

[ManOfReason]

No need to go all Drama Queen...I wasn't looking for an apology. Just making an observation.

Actually you made accusations not an observation. Namely of people being hateful, almost hysterical, and having relentless contempt for Obama. They are strong words and as Obama likes to say 'words do matter.'

As for people finding the election painful, well I find it more than a coincidence that your little hissy fit in defence of your idol comes at the time that his lead in the polls is evaporating. :mrgreen:

[kerrynorth]

I'm sorry, but all of you Obama-haters are beginning to sound like closeted homosexuals obsessed with slamming the gays. Disinterest is the opposite of love (or Obamamania), not hate. Yet here you all are, day after day, almost hysterical in your relentless contempt. It must be so painful for you guys, watching this election.

Not at all. But what is painful is the general assumption in Ireland that McCain supporters here must surely be warmongering racists.

Somebody calling me?

[hiding behind a poster]

You know, the thing to remember about these polls is that they're likely to be underestimating the youth vote. I know they rarely turn out, but given the obsession with Obama on college campuses this year, i reckon they might this year, which would affect the results in a manner not reflected in these polls.

That's absolutely correct - and it perhaps applies even more significantly to the black vote, which also historically turns out in low numbers. This is one of the interesting things about American elections compared to those in other countries. The European average turnout is traditionally around the 65% mark - and when you take out all those who are unable to vote by virtue of being on holidays, working elsewhere on the day, being sick, having died since the final register was published etc, you're left with a relatively small percentage (about 15%, given that a full turnout is considered to be about 80% for the reasons stated above), that generally don't vote. In America you only get about a 50% turnout - which means there's a much larger grouping (about 30% of the electorate), who almost never vote. So if a candidate has a unique selling point among historic non-voters, he only has to dip into that pool to a small extent to completely change the electoral arithmetic. And this is where Obama has a massive advantage. Firstly, he's black - so straightaway he has a unique selling point for a group (blacks) who are very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Secondly, he has massive appeal to students and other young voters - who are again very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Now he doesn't have to get those voters out to the same extent as other voter groups turn out, but if for example 30% of blacks vote this time, compared to 20% normally, then straightaway every national opinion poll, all of which are based on historic voter trends among different age groups, gender groups, income groups, ethnic groups etc, will substantially underestimate his vote. The same applies to young voters.

Then, turning to McCain, what are his unique selling points? One, he's old - but older people vote anyway, in a greater proportion than the national average, so there's fewer of them within that 30% who don't normally vote. Secondly, he's a decorated war veteran - but again, war veterans ALWAYS vote - being civic-minded, they see it as something that you should do. So again, there won't be many non-voting vets who will this time distort the national sample by voting for McCain because they identify with him. All the advantages are with Obama in this respect, and as such if polls were to show a dead heat by polling day, Obama would probably win by a relatively comfortable margin.

[generick]

You know, the thing to remember about these polls is that they're likely to be underestimating the youth vote. I know they rarely turn out, but given the obsession with Obama on college campuses this year, i reckon they might this year, which would affect the results in a manner not reflected in these polls.

And OMG, if Obama loses to McCain then its all over, America wont last another twenty years....

Mind you, if the media were to stop group hugging McCain all the time, we might actually see more reflective polling. I mean he makes mistakes like confusing sunni and shia, the whole anbar awakening thing and continually referring to a non existent eastern european country and he gets away with it. Meanwhile, Obama says people may be bitter and its front page news for a week. Its bloody depressing is what it is.

Media love McCain ?

Wow so thats why news stories about Obama get front page week after week and McCain gets page 5.

Obama is being found wanting and the dumb assumption that its all over in July will come back to haunt him.

Yes indeed the media do love McCain. As evidence, i produce the following:

http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny- ... 4517.story

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/ar ... 16282.html

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stum ... g-dom.aspx

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/colu ... 032.column

And yes, Obama gets more coverage (in the past year), but McCain is the most popular politician on TV, he's been on more shows in the past ten years than every other republican combined.

Thats mostly because the Republican campaign have focused on him to a huge extent. Hes been the subject of almost all their ads and press releases. They have made this election about him, and now they complain about it?

McCain gets better coverage though, especially from the WaPo and the networks. They never mention his goofs or his flip flops, but they do for Obama.

[Defeated Romanticist]

You know, the thing to remember about these polls is that they're likely to be underestimating the youth vote. I know they rarely turn out, but given the obsession with Obama on college campuses this year, i reckon they might this year, which would affect the results in a manner not reflected in these polls.

That's absolutely correct - and it perhaps applies even more significantly to the black vote, which also historically turns out in low numbers. This is one of the interesting things about American elections compared to those in other countries. The European average turnout is traditionally around the 65% mark - and when you take out all those who are unable to vote by virtue of being on holidays, working elsewhere on the day, being sick, having died since the final register was published etc, you're left with a relatively small percentage (about 15%, given that a full turnout is considered to be about 80% for the reasons stated above), that generally don't vote. In America you only get about a 50% turnout - which means there's a much larger grouping (about 30% of the electorate), who almost never vote. So if a candidate has a unique selling point among historic non-voters, he only has to dip into that pool to a small extent to completely change the electoral arithmetic. And this is where Obama has a massive advantage. Firstly, he's black - so straightaway he has a unique selling point for a group (blacks) who are very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Secondly, he has massive appeal to students and other young voters - who are again very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Now he doesn't have to get those voters out to the same extent as other voter groups turn out, but if for example 30% of blacks vote this time, compared to 20% normally, then straightaway every national opinion poll, all of which are based on historic voter trends among different age groups, gender groups, income groups, ethnic groups etc, will substantially underestimate his vote. The same applies to young voters.

Then, turning to McCain, what are his unique selling points? One, he's old - but older people vote anyway, in a greater proportion than the national average, so there's fewer of them within that 30% who don't normally vote. Secondly, he's a decorated war veteran - but again, war veterans ALWAYS vote - being civic-minded, they see it as something that you should do. So again, there won't be many non-voting vets who will this time distort the national sample by voting for McCain because they identify with him. All the advantages are with Obama in this respect, and as such if polls were to show a dead heat by polling day, Obama would probably win by a relatively comfortable margin.

[FutureTaoiseach]

You know, the thing to remember about these polls is that they're likely to be underestimating the youth vote. I know they rarely turn out, but given the obsession with Obama on college campuses this year, i reckon they might this year, which would affect the results in a manner not reflected in these polls.

That's absolutely correct - and it perhaps applies even more significantly to the black vote, which also historically turns out in low numbers. This is one of the interesting things about American elections compared to those in other countries. The European average turnout is traditionally around the 65% mark - and when you take out all those who are unable to vote by virtue of being on holidays, working elsewhere on the day, being sick, having died since the final register was published etc, you're left with a relatively small percentage (about 15%, given that a full turnout is considered to be about 80% for the reasons stated above), that generally don't vote. In America you only get about a 50% turnout - which means there's a much larger grouping (about 30% of the electorate), who almost never vote. So if a candidate has a unique selling point among historic non-voters, he only has to dip into that pool to a small extent to completely change the electoral arithmetic. And this is where Obama has a massive advantage. Firstly, he's black - so straightaway he has a unique selling point for a group (blacks) who are very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Secondly, he has massive appeal to students and other young voters - who are again very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Now he doesn't have to get those voters out to the same extent as other voter groups turn out, but if for example 30% of blacks vote this time, compared to 20% normally, then straightaway every national opinion poll, all of which are based on historic voter trends among different age groups, gender groups, income groups, ethnic groups etc, will substantially underestimate his vote. The same applies to young voters.

Then, turning to McCain, what are his unique selling points? One, he's old - but older people vote anyway, in a greater proportion than the national average, so there's fewer of them within that 30% who don't normally vote. Secondly, he's a decorated war veteran - but again, war veterans ALWAYS vote - being civic-minded, they see it as something that you should do. So again, there won't be many non-voting vets who will this time distort the national sample by voting for McCain because they identify with him. All the advantages are with Obama in this respect, and as such if polls were to show a dead heat by polling day, Obama would probably win by a relatively comfortable margin.

I wouldn't be putting too much stock in the youth-vote if I were you, given a recent CNN poll showing a huge drop in 18-29 year olds saying they are certain to vote from 68% to 46%. I believe they will vote Obama but not turn out by enough for it to put him over the top. On African-Americans - yes they are likely to turn out more but remember that in 2004, they constituted 11% of the actual voting-electorate, compared to 12% of the population. It's debatable then whether even on a bigger turnout it will be enough to outweigh the White support for McCain. Regarding Hispanics - yes they will vote for Obama but remember in 2004 they were just 3% of the voting-electorate. Most of them are either illegals who don't have US citizenship, or people who haven't been naturalised yet. So while they are 13% of the population, only a small minority of them will be able to vote. I think that in the long-run, the demographic projections of Hispanics eventually comprising 30% of the population and Blacks 15% has the potential for a dramatic realignment of the electoral-map to the advantage of the Democrats, but that could take decades.

[BaudrillardNeverExisted]

Remember back in 2004 when young people, energised by a new style of politics, flocked to the polls in huge numbers and elected President Dean?

[hiding behind a poster]

On African-Americans - yes they are likely to turn out more but remember that in 2004, they constituted 11% of the actual voting-electorate, compared to 12% of the population. It's debatable then whether even on a bigger turnout it will be enough to outweigh the White support for McCain.

Try this for size - go to the 2004 figures, and increase the black turnout, and the youth turnout, by just 1% in every state. Assign the votes of that 1% proportionate to the black voters and youth voters that DID vote, go across all the states, and see who becomes President. Then repeat the trick for 2000.

[hiding behind a poster]

[quote=Defeated Romanticist]

You know, the thing to remember about these polls is that they're likely to be underestimating the youth vote. I know they rarely turn out, but given the obsession with Obama on college campuses this year, i reckon they might this year, which would affect the results in a manner not reflected in these polls.

That's absolutely correct - and it perhaps applies even more significantly to the black vote, which also historically turns out in low numbers. This is one of the interesting things about American elections compared to those in other countries. The European average turnout is traditionally around the 65% mark - and when you take out all those who are unable to vote by virtue of being on holidays, working elsewhere on the day, being sick, having died since the final register was published etc, you're left with a relatively small percentage (about 15%, given that a full turnout is considered to be about 80% for the reasons stated above), that generally don't vote. In America you only get about a 50% turnout - which means there's a much larger grouping (about 30% of the electorate), who almost never vote. So if a candidate has a unique selling point among historic non-voters, he only has to dip into that pool to a small extent to completely change the electoral arithmetic. And this is where Obama has a massive advantage. Firstly, he's black - so straightaway he has a unique selling point for a group (blacks) who are very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Secondly, he has massive appeal to students and other young voters - who are again very heavily represented in the "don't vote" category. Now he doesn't have to get those voters out to the same extent as other voter groups turn out, but if for example 30% of blacks vote this time, compared to 20% normally, then straightaway every national opinion poll, all of which are based on historic voter trends among different age groups, gender groups, income groups, ethnic groups etc, will substantially underestimate his vote. The same applies to young voters.

Then, turning to McCain, what are his unique selling points? One, he's old - but older people vote anyway, in a greater proportion than the national average, so there's fewer of them within that 30% who don't normally vote. Secondly, he's a decorated war veteran - but again, war veterans ALWAYS vote - being civic-minded, they see it as something that you should do. So again, there won't be many non-voting vets who will this time distort the national sample by voting for McCain because they identify with him. All the advantages are with Obama in this respect, and as such if polls were to show a dead heat by polling day, Obama would probably win by a relatively comfortable margin.

[/quote:29pwstj3]


DR, if you disagree with the analysis, I'd be grateful if you'd actually explain why.