Obama v McCain Polling

[Defeated Romanticist]

Polls showed Fianna Fáíl winning 34% of the vote before th last election...

[myksav]

Polls showed Fianna Fáíl winning 34% of the vote before th last election...

And that is apropro what exactly?

[Clareman]

And most polls 2 weeks before the election showed Kerry, Gore, Dole, Bush, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter, Ford etc etc losing their elections all the way back to Harry Truman. Guess how many won, not a good strike rate 1 for 15

[FutureTaoiseach]

Latest polls - some from after the debate:



A few interesting points about the above polling. Note how the post-debate Florida poll has McCain retaking the lead, albeit narrowly (he was ahead 1% in the previous SurveyUSA poll too but even so, the passage of time makes this an interesting poll). The Colorado and Nevada polls were also after the debate and as such suggest the Joe the Plumber phenomenon has not (yet) swayed voters there. Unfortunately, we will need to see more post-debate state polls to assess which of these 2 trends is more important - a slight recovery by McCain or Obama holding onto states he leads in. Especially interesting will be Pennsylvania whose western residents local Congressmen John Murtha has just called his Congressional district 'a racist area'. The North Dakota poll is also most interesting given the Obama campaign has pulled out of there and this is a second poll showing the race close there.

[hiding behind a poster]

Polls showed Fianna Fáíl winning 34% of the vote before th last election...

Yes, and we'll never know if those polls were right or not. But the polls closest to the election showed FF at between 39% and 41%, and they polled 41%. Which kinda proves how accurate credible polls tend to be. I'm not sure what your point is though.

[Aggressor]

Rasmussen:

Obama 50%

McCain 45%


Zogby:

Obama 48.3%

McCain 44.4%

[FutureTaoiseach]

Today's polls. The state ones are not since the debate though. The national ones are consequently more relevant, nut bear in mind the Gallup poll is via the "expanded" form of the likely-voter poll, assuming a higher turnout among groups that normally don't vote, whereas their "traditional" model says Obama only has a 2% lead:

[jfk2008]

A few more recent poll results (all polls carried out between 15th to 17th October inclusive; LV = Likely Voters; results for Barr/Nader excluded):

Pollster: Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby
Dates: 10/15-17/08
N/Pop: 1209 LV
McCain: 44
Obama: 48
Undecided: 7
Margin: +4D

Pollster: DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000
Dates: 10/15-17/08
N/Pop: 1100 LV
McCain: 43
Obama: 50
Undecided: 2
Margin: +7D

Pollster: Rasmussen
Dates: 10/15-17/08
N/Pop: 3000 LV
McCain: 45
Obama: 50
Undecided: n/a
Margin: +5D

Pollster: Diageo/Hotline
Dates: 10/15-17/08
N/Pop: 797 LV
McCain: 42
Obama: 49
Undecided: 7
Margin: +7D

Pollster: Gallup
Dates: 10/15-17/08
N/Pop: 2263 LV
McCain: 46
Obama: 50
Undecided: 3
Margin: +4D

And a nice graph:

[Aggressor]

Rasmussen:

Obama 51%

McCain 45%


Zogby:

Obama 47.8%

McCain 45.1%

[FutureTaoiseach]

Democrats Favor Spreading Wealth Around, GOP Disagrees:

John McCain now says it's socialism, but Barack Obama insists, "When you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody."
Forty-four percent (44%) of voters agree with Obama’s statement while 42% disagree in a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Democrats think their candidate is right, but 78% of Republicans disagree.
While Obama was campaigning recently, a plumber’s assistant named Joe Wurzelbacher asked the Democratic presidential nominee a critical question about his tax policy. Obama defended the policy, saying in part, "When you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” McCain brought the incident up in the final presidential debate last Wednesday, and "Joe the Plumber" suddenly was a central figure in the closing days of the presidential campaign.
A majority of those who earn less than $40,000 a year agree with Obama about spreading the wealth around, while most of those who earn more than that disagree. Entrepreneurs are strongly opposed while a slight plurality of government employees agree.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters under 30 agree with Obama’s statement while 33% disagree. A plurality of those over 30 take the opposite view.
Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters have been following news stories of Joe the Plumber somewhat or very closely. Among those following the news story, just 40% agree with Obama’s statement, and 47% disagree.
Forty-four percent (44%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Joe the Plumber, while another 41% have an unfavorable opinion and 15% are not sure. Among those following the story, the numbers for Joe are 58% favorable and 37% unfavorable.
As with just about everything touched by the presidential campaign, the responses divide sharply along partisan lines. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Joe while 64% of Democrats express an unfavorable view.
The surprising star of the Presidential debate is a hit with middle income voters. Among those earning $40,000 a year to $100,000, 52% have a favorable opinion of Joe the Plumber while 33% offer an unfavorable assessment.
Those who earn less than $40,000 a year are less impressed—just 39% have a favorable opinion of him while 44% provide an unfavorable review.
Those with a higher income have an even lower opinion of Joe—35% favorable, 52% Unfavorable.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of entrepreneurs have a favorable opinion of the man who wants to someday buy his own business.
Given a choice between the two presidential candidates and Joe, 44% say Obama is the one who best understands the economic realities they face. Twenty-nine percent (29%) named McCain and 19% Joe the Plumber.
Some, including former Arkansas governor and unsuccessful GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, have suggested that if McCain wins, he’ll have Wurzelbacher to thank for it.
McCain is currently trailing Obama in the Rasmussen Reports daily [COLOR=#800080]Presidential Tracking Poll[/COLOR].
McCain has clearly been hurt by the nation’s economic problems and his inability to articulate a solid response over the past month. It is possible that coverage of Wurzelbacher’s exchange with Obama, spread nationally by YouTube, has helped in that regard: A plurality of voters (48%) believes that McCain or Joe the Plumber better understand their situation better than Obama does.
Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republicans say either McCain or Joe the Plumber best understands the realities they face. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats say Obama does. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 50% pick McCain or Joe while 38% name Obama.
Among voters who earn less than $40,000 annually, 50% say Obama understands their reality better than the others. Fifty-two percent (52%) of those who earn more than $100,000 a year say the same. But, among middle-income Americans, those earning $40,000 to $100,000 annually, 58% say that either McCain or Joe the Plumber best understands their situation. Just 35% say Obama does.