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About LinkBacksWhy then do they like Obama so much?Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
Why then do they like Obama so much?
I beg to differ.
Is that why Republicans have won 7 out of the last 10 presidential elections?
Expect a return to a 50-50 race when polls taken fully after the final debate come out, with an eventual McCain lead in the popular vote and the Electoral College. Paddypower will have a second Lisbon-moment soon, and I will consequently be 600 euro better off.
Last edited by FutureTaoiseach; 17th October 2008 at 04:54 AM.
What do you base this smug assurity on?
'Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.'
Inigo Montoya.
Presumably you're piling money onto McCain with Paddy Power who have him at 5/1. Given your absolute certainty that he will win, you'd be a mug not to.
The latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll shows Obama with a 5-point lead over McCain. Only a quarter of the sample were polled after the final debate:
Say it ain't so Joe! Or should that be Samuel?Obama holds poll lead after final debate
Democrat Barack Obama holds a five-point lead over Republican John McCain, indicating that their final public debate did much to sway the US presidential race, a Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll showed today.
Mr Obama's edge over his rival held steady at 49 per cent to 44 per cent among likely US voters in the four-day tracking poll, unchanged from results before the two men met on Wednesday for their third and last debate before the November 4th election.
The poll of 1,210 likely voters had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby said the latest results - in which the most recent day's results are added and the oldest day's results are dropped in an effort to measure changing momentum - may not reflect the full impact of the debate.
"Only one-quarter of this sample is post-debate, so we'll have to wait a few more days to see," he said. "We'll have to look tomorrow to see if there was any McCain boost at all."
Quick polls taken after Wednesday's debate judged Mr Obama the victor, joining a string of surveys that show him ahead both in national polls and in most of the battleground states where the presidential election will be decided.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>
Mr McCain (72) has sought to deliver his own economic message, along with aggressive attacks on Obama, but has failed to gain traction among crucial independent voters.
The Democratic senator held a 19-point lead in this group on Friday, up five points from Thursday's figures.
"It would seem the independents are solidifying around Obama, which would be important," Mr Zogby said.
Other national polls have given Mr Obama a double-digit overall lead, although most have him in a range of two to nine points ahead.
Both candidates continue to do well with their core supporters, with Mr Obama winning nine of every 10 black voters and a holding a 10-point lead among women voters. Mr McCain held a narrow 1-point lead among male voters and a larger 12-point lead among whites.
Obama holds poll lead after final debate - The Irish Times - Fri, Oct 17, 2008Elsewhere, it turns out that the most famous plumber in America is not a qualified plumber and is not called Joe.
Joe Wurzelbacher has become a darling of conservatives for attacking Mr Obama's tax policies during a walkabout by the Illinois senator.
But the morning after he emerged as the unexpected star of Wednesday evening's US presidential debate, it emerged that his real name is Samuel "Joe" Wurzelbacher.
The Association of Plumbers, Steamfitters and Service Mechanics has also revealed that Mr Wurzelbacher was not a licensed member of their trade.
A 5 point lead is definitely not insurmountable in 3 weeks. Zolby even said the full effect of the debate (including Joe the plumber) will not be known until the weekend.
Considering Obama built up his led in a relatively short time since the end of September it is not out of the question to suggest that this could be reversed in a similar space of time.
The economic factor has been the key in swinging this to Obama and that situation is not going to change.
McCain is on the defence in a lot of Bush states and he needs to retain these to stay competitive as well as nicking a big blue state.
I can see it tightening up now and anyone thinking that a landslide will happen may be disappointed.
The 5 point lead does not matter*. What matters is the electoral collage. A candidate could lose by 95%/5% in a majority of US states and still be POTUS.
And reports show that in the states key to the electoral vote BO is well ahead and likely to remain so. I think there has been an over-emphasis on the polling of the popular vote in this thread.
* Ed: Sorry, this is wrong - of course it matters. I meant it is not the key element.
I've never understood the logic of this system. Granted that they want to give greater weight to the voters in smaller states - but winner takes all system is anti-democratic. If McCain gets 49% of the Florida vote, he should get 49% of Florida's electral collage votes.
"Who will bailout the IMF after FF is finished with them?"
I have spoken of the electoral college many times on this post.
I was responding to the earlier post. The national polls will give an indication of where trends are going in the individual states.
On current averages Obama is leading in enough states to give him 286 votes.
McCain needs to take all of the 8 toss up states (7 of which are in the margin of error). He will then need to take 2 of Colorado, New Mexico, Virgina and Minnesota.
It’s a massive task to push Obama back under the 270 but I would not be surprised if McCain takes most of the toss up states to make it a 50-60 college vote win rather than 100-150 win for Obama.
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