Interesting. The average spread in favour of Obama in the national polls is 7.33%. The average spread in favour of Obama in the national polls with a weighting of 1.0 or more is 8%.Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
Yesterday's polls:
That compares to an average spread in favour of Obama in the national polls from last week of 4.5%, with an average spread in national polls from last week with a weighting of 1.0 or more of 7%.
The gap is widening.
Last edited by jfk2008; 14th October 2008 at 01:37 AM.
Judge: Mich. can't reject voters with bad address.
Note that the Secretary of State in Michigan is a Republican. Typical.A judge has ordered Michigan election officials to stop automatically canceling a voter's registration if the card is returned as undeliverable.
Federal Judge Stephen Murphy in Detroit ruled Monday in a lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union and a group representing college students.
More than 1,400 voters in that category have been disqualified so far in 2008. The judge says it's unclear how many cancelations actually are wrong but it's a violation of federal law.
Murphy says those people shouldn't be prevented from voting if they can produce more proof of residency at the polls.
Obama's landslide likelihood at Five Thirty Eight is now 53.67% - that's teh highest we've ever seen. I'd started a thread on that here but content enough to stay discussing this matter on this thread for a while more ?
cYp
"Yawn , am I alive yet ?"
Don't forget that Reagan overcame this sort of gap in 1980 between around this time and polling-day (47-39) against Carter. It aint over till the fat lady sings.
It could of course swing the other way, especially if the economy levels off a bit and the debate returns to other issues. Your comparison isn't really appropriate though. Carter was suffering the same problems of incumbency (directly) that McCain is suffering. Reagan was the candidate of change. Also McCain is absolutely nothing like Reagan.
Carter was the incumbent in charge of a country with a poor economy and presiding over the humiliation of the Iranian hostage situation.
Obama has successfully linked McCain to Bush. Voters trust Obama more on the economy (the number one issue) and McCain wants to continue an unpopular war indefinitely.
Very different situations.
Obama is gaining significant ground among Hispanic voters:
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/According to Public Policy Polling, Hispanics are shifting towards Obama in large numbers.
"Most of Obama’s gains over the last three weeks can be traced to the Hispanic vote. Where his lead among those voters was previously 57-36, he has now upped it to 71-21. The breakdown of white voters is exactly the same as it was previously, a 48-47 lead for Obama." says the report.
So the major Western battleground states of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are going to go to Obama if he can keep their support.
McCain differs from the Republican base on immigration policy but he has done a horrible job in reminding Hispanics how he appeals to them. He has also done a horrible job in distancing himself from the failed administration of George Bush.
By trying not to offend the Republican base, he has alienated some voters that may have ordinarily voted for him...
Last edited by jfk2008; 14th October 2008 at 09:13 AM.
Reagan and Carter had only one televised debate, which hadn't yet happened at the time of that poll. And, like Obama, Reagan was a relative newcomer to national politics, meaning that many voters waited to see him debate before making up their minds. He beat Carter in that debate, seemed plausibly presidential in it, and the undecideds swung his way. In Obama's case, two debates have already happened, and he's got a bounce from them for roughly the same reasons, while you also have to remember that McCain is NOT a newcomer to national politics, so the possibility of a late Reagan-style bounce for that reason doesn't exist.
FT, you're right: It ain't over until the Fat Lady warbles.
However, Carter and Reagan had one debate closer to election day which helped Reagan to make a significant jump in the polls. McCain has already had two debates which, once could argue, have left him a tad bit more in the doo-doo.
I don't see how he wins this.
"Who is Obama anyway?" is a ridiculous ploy: Obama and Ayers is old news that Clinton brought up - it didn't work for her - and it smacks of desperation. He's already regretting the divisiveness of that, I suspect.
The "I'm the scrappy underdog, Obama is measuring the drapes, he's going to have too much power (with the two houses under Strong Demo. control)" rhetoric that he's coming up will be as unbelievable and unconvincing as his "change" rhetoric.
His debate performances so far have left the undecideds cold, so it's hard to see how he could improve quickly enough for the last one.
Palin is an utter f*ckup, so he can't really her push her forward. (Man, I bet he regrets picking her now)
He could still win; I mean, anything's possible, but I think he needs some sort of major intervention
EDIT: So, how much did you put on McCain anyway?
Tmesis2008 it was 180 euro some months ago, before McCain had the nomination sewn up. I have a soft spot for underdogs. And jfk2008, PPP are a Democratic party outfit which is why realclearpolitics has just decided to exclude their and others like Strategic Vision (Republican) from being included in their polling averages as of 11th October, and their findings of a national tie among Whites is contradicted by pretty much everyone else.
Last edited by FutureTaoiseach; 14th October 2008 at 10:04 AM.
PPP may be a Democrat polling organisation but the huge lead among Hispanic voters in key western swing states can't be dismissed on that basis.
71-21 is too big a difference to be discounted.
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