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Thread: Obama v McCain Polling

  1. #781
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    Quote Originally Posted by jfk2008 View Post
    Believe me, if this election is stolen by Republican chicanery, there will be riots.

    African-Americans will express their anger 'by any means necessary'.
    Expect to hear more of this blackmail in the coming weeks. James Carville was at it on CNN last night when in reply to comments by David Gergen that there was still doubt about Obama winning because of race he said:

    "Now let me be clear here, if Obama goes in this race with a 5-point lead and losing this election, the consequences are -- bull, man. I mean I don't think that's going to happen, but I think David it's a point to bring up. But you stop and contemplate this country if Obama goes in and he has a consistent five point lead and loses the election, it would be very, very, very dramatic out there."
    [COLOR="Red"]A CHILD OF FIVE WOULD UNDERSTAND THIS. SEND SOMEONE TO FETCH A CHILD OF FIVE.[/COLOR]


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  2. #782
    Politics.ie Regular Utopian Hermit Monk's Avatar
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    - biggest gap yet

  3. #783
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    Quote Originally Posted by Utopian Hermit Monk View Post



    - biggest gap yet
    Yeeha! The gap is getting wider. Except for a brief recovery at the very end of September, the trend shows McCain falling even further behind day by day.

  4. #784
    Politics.ie Regular Kerrygold's Avatar
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    I'm not sure about that Gallup poll. It would be fantastic if he was that far ahead, but I doubt it. The Rasmussen ones would seem to be a bit more realistic, where Obama has been between 50-52% and McCain 44 and 45% for the past 2 weeks.

    He currently leads by 5% on their daily tracking poll.

  5. #785
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    Fair point: let's say split the difference between Gallup and Rasmussen.

    That would put Obama eight points ahead overall.

  6. #786
    Politics.ie Regular President Bartlet's Avatar
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    CNN's poll of pols has Obama 4 points ahead 48-44

  7. #787
    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    Some examples of trying to steal the election:

    Quote Originally Posted by Realclearpolitics Blog
    The Obama campaign and Democratic National Committee filed a lawsuit in federal court today, alleging that the Michigan Republican Party is engaging an illegal effort to disenfranchise voters.
    Speaking to reporters on a conference call, Obama general counsel Bob Bauer said they filed the injunction after evidence surfaced that the Michigan GOP planned to use home foreclosure lists to keep voters still using the address of their foreclosed home from voting. Such voters could be challenged at voting precincts and forced to answer questions or risk being denied voting rights.
    Bauer referred to the practice as "caging," which he said had been "standard operating procedure" in the GOP for the last three decades. "It is an absolute attack on the right to vote," Bauer said. "The challenge activity that the Republicans would engage in using these foreclosure lists would have a deadly effect on the voting process." One in 285 homes in Macomb County are in foreclosure, Bauer said.
    One piece of evidence the plaintiffs will cite is an article published by [COLOR=#cc0000]Michigan Messenger[/COLOR], a reportedly left-leaning, political news website, which interviewed Macomb County GOP chairman James Carabelli and quoted him saying: "We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren't voting from those addresses."
    In an interview with the [COLOR=#cc0000]Detroit News[/COLOR] the day after that quote was published, Carabelli denied the accuracy of the quote. "I never said anything even close to that," he told the newspaper. "We won't be doing voter challenges on foreclosures, and we've never had a plan to do it."
    "They can tell it to the judge," Bauer said, when asked about Republican denials of the charge. Michigan Messenger has also [COLOR=#cc0000]refused to retract[/COLOR] the story.
    Tens of thousands purged from electoral-rolls:

    Purges of voter rolls in some U.S. states appear illegal




    Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times.


    The actions do not seem to be coordinated by one party or the other, nor do they appear to be the result of election officials intentionally breaking rules, but are apparently the result of mistakes in the handling of the registrations and voter files as the states tried to comply with a 2002 federal law, intended to overhaul the way elections are run.
    Still, because Democrats have been more aggressive at registering new voters this year, according to state election officials, any heightened screening of new applications may affect their party's supporters disproportionately. The screening and trimming of voter registration lists in the six states — Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina — could also result in problems at the polls on Election Day: people who have been removed from the rolls are likely to show up only to be challenged by political party officials or election workers, resulting in confusion, long lines and heated tempers.
    Some states allow such voters to cast provisional ballots. But they are often not counted because they require added verification.
    Although much attention this year has been focused on the millions of new voters being added to the rolls by the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama, there has been far less notice given to the number of voters being dropped from those same rolls.
    States have been trying to follow the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and remove the names of voters who should no longer be listed; but for every voter added to the rolls in the past two months in some states, election officials have removed two, a review of the records shows.
    The six states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Some are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote.
    Some of the states are improperly using Social Security data to verify registration applications for new voters.
    In addition to the six swing states, three more states appear to be violating federal law. Alabama and Georgia seem to be improperly using Social Security information to screen registration applications from new voters. And Louisiana appears to have removed thousands of voters after the federal deadline for taking such action.
    Under federal law, election officials are supposed to use the Social Security database to check a registration application only as a last resort, if no record of the applicant is found on state databases, like those for driver's licenses or identification cards.
    The requirement exists because using the federal database is less reliable than the state lists, and is more likely to incorrectly flag applications as invalid. Many state officials seem to be using the Social Security lists first.
    In the year ending Sept. 30, election officials in Nevada, for example, used the Social Security database more than 740,000 times to check voter files or registration applications and found more than 715,000 nonmatches, federal records show. Election officials in Georgia ran more than 1.9 million checks on voter files or voter registration applications and found more than 260,000 nonmatches.
    Officials of the Social Security Administration, presented with those numbers, said they were far too high to be cases where names were not in state databases. They said the data seem to represent a violation of federal law and the contract the states signed with the agency to use the database.
    Last week, after the inquiry by The Times, Michael J. Astrue, the commissioner of the Social Security Administration, alerted the Justice Department to the problem and sent letters to election officials in Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. The letters, which express concern that voters will be blocked from voting because of the inappropriate use of Social Security information, ask the officials to ensure they are complying with federal law.
    In three states — Colorado, Louisiana and Michigan — the number of people purged from the election rolls since Aug. 1 far exceeds the number who may have died or relocated during that period.
    States may be improperly removing voters who have moved within the state, election experts said, or who are considered inactive because they have failed to vote in two consecutive federal elections. For example, major voter registration drives have been held this year in Colorado, which has also had a significant population increase since the last presidential election, but the state has recorded a net loss of nearly 100,000 voters from its rolls since 2004.
    Last edited by FutureTaoiseach; 9th October 2008 at 02:48 PM.

  8. #788
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    Scary stuff. There should be an independent federal agency to oversee voter registrations along with standard federal voting method regulations.

    Back to the polls:

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. The race remains quite stable--for the past fourteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% every day while McCain has been at 44% of 45%.
    Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

  9. #789
    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    Today's polls, including the first to give Obama a lead in West Virginia (which no Democrat has become president without winning since 1916). It also gives McCain a lead in Missouri while confirming leads in Virginia and North Carolina. Bear in mind though that ARG gave Hillary a 20% lead in Pennsylvania and that fivethirtyeight.com regard it as one of the less accurate pollsters (hence the fairly low weighting given to the ARG polls in the site's weighted-basket):



    BTW, more demographic info on the Rasmussen poll referenced by jfk2008:

    Obama now leads by 13 points among women but trails by two among men. Among White Women, its McCain 48% Obama 47%. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Obama leads by seven.
    How does this compare to 2004? Bush beat Kerry among men 55-44, while Kerry beat Bush by just 51-48. among women.
    Last edited by FutureTaoiseach; 10th October 2008 at 12:50 PM.

  10. #790
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    More bad news for McCain. Obama's lead in the women's vote has increased. He even has more support among families with a member in the military.

    Democrat Barack Obama has opened a five-point lead over Republican rival John McCain in the White House race and expanded his support among women voters, according to a poll released today.

    The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows Mr Obama leading Mr McCain by 48 per cent to 43 per cent among likely US voters in the national poll.

    This is a one per cent increase since the last such poll. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

    Mr Obama's edge among women, an important swing voting block in the November 4th election, grew from 9 to 12 points. He also gained among Hispanics and young voters and leads by 10 points among independents.

    Mr Obama's edge has expanded amid intensifying economic fears as financial markets have tumbled this week.

    Half of the polling, conducted this week, was done after Tuesday's second presidential debate.

    "Obama is benefiting from the terrible economic news and what was seen to be a relatively poor debate performance by McCain," pollster John Zogby said.

    Mr McCain (72), a former Navy fighter pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war, fell behind Mr Obama among voters with a member of the military in their family. The Arizona senator runs even with Mr Obama among voters older than 65.
    Poll shows Obama opening five-point lead - The Irish Times - Fri, Oct 10, 2008

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