Obama v McCain Polling

[hiding behind a poster]

Two interesting points from www.electoral-vote.com today. Firstly, they refer to post-convention bounces:

All candidates get a bounce in the polls after their convention. After all, millions of people have just seen the candidate in the best possible light, with no opposition and no criticism. This year Barack Obama got a solid bounce after the Democratic National Convention and now John McCain is enjoying one after the Republican National Convention. But this story in CQ Politics shows that these bounces usually last a couple of weeks and then dissipate. It examines 1960, 1976, 1988, 1992, and 2000 in detail.

McCain is still comfortably within the period of his post-convention bounce, and can still only get fractionally ahead in the Electoral College projections. Obama's bounce put him comfortably ahead. That suggests that the median is somewhere between a comfortable Obama win and an extremely narrow McCain win - in other words a relatively comfortable win for Obama - maybe by 40-odd EVs.

Then they have a piece about where Sarah Palin's popularity actuall lies:

CNN's pollster and political analyst wrote a piece with a similar theme: the conventions did what they were supposed to do, make sure that Democrats are all revved up over Obama and Republicans are all excited about McCain (and in his case, Palin). He notes that the national polls show a dead heat right now. He also observes that while Palin is wildly popular among Republicans, her choice has changed people's views about which candidate can best unite the country. Before the conventions it was McCain by 15 points. Now it is Obama by 16 points, a stunning reversal.

Stunning reversal that certainly is. And that figure adds further weight to the belief that Palin was brought in to enthuse the GOP base, and turn it into a 2004-style "base election". But in 2008 there are fewer ballots on "Guns, Gays and God" issues to get that GOP base to the polls, and furthermore the Democrats now have a substantially larger voter base than in 2004 - throw in the fact that Obama's campaign is running the biggest and best-funded GOTV operation in history, and again you get the feeling the Democrats will win.

[I'm Neutral]

Could I add a few comments to "hiding behind a posters" remarks.The race is not currently dead level.Daily tracking polls
give McCain an average 2 point lead over Obama and the most recent state polls imply an electoral college lead for McCain also.
A number of states won by the Democrats in 2004 now show a very small Dem lead i.e. Washington , Michigan and Minnesota which fit in with the recent swing to Republicans. I saw a report today from the NBC political editor that Democratic strategists are expecting 70% of "undecideds" in those states will vote Republican based on race factors.
Presumably their polls have told them that these "undecideds" have social characteristics ( white working class males ?)
which suggest that they wont vote for Obama .
A lot can happen in the next 7 weeks , debates , economy coming to the fore etc. but as of now no doubt but that McCain/Palin are slight favourites.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Iowa:
Obama 52%
McCain 40%

Minnesota:
Obama 45%
McCain 45%

I would argue that the latter is deeply worrying as Democratic presidential candidates have carried this state every election since 1976. Even Mondale won here.

[corelli]

I know some may find this a very infantile postition but I cannot, for the life of me, see how adding a complete and utter idiot like Palin to the ticket gives McCain a bounce. I dont have any fixed position as to the outcome of the election and consider McCain a vast improvement over Bush but Palin!!. Even GOP supporters on this board must have doubts about her ability to lead. If McCain does not survice the first term, and statistically that is probable given mortalitity/life expectancy rates in the US, then do the GOP seriously consider her an appropriate person to lead the most powerful nation on earth. It beggers belief.

[FutureTaoiseach]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows John McCain reaching the 50% level of support for the first time since Barack Obama wrapped up the Democratic Presidential Nomination. McCain retains a three-point advantage for the third straight day, 50% to 47% (see recent daily results).

Delaware:
Obama 55%
McCain 43%

I know some may find this a very infantile postition but I cannot, for the life of me, see how adding a complete and utter idiot like Palin to the ticket gives McCain a bounce. I dont have any fixed position as to the outcome of the election and consider McCain a vast improvement over Bush but Palin!!. Even GOP supporters on this board must have doubts about her ability to lead. If McCain does not survice the first term, and statistically that is probable given mortalitity/life expectancy rates in the US, then do the GOP seriously consider her an appropriate person to lead the most powerful nation on earth. It beggers belief.

She plays to the theme of a "maverick" like McCain, because she ousted incumbant GOP Alaska Governor Frank Murkowski in the GOP primary in 2006. She also appeals to voters concerned about corruption in the GOP.

On March 4, 2008, Murkowski's former chief-of-staff, Jim Clark, pleaded guilty to one felony count of conspiracy after federal investigators discovered Clark had asked oil-field company Veco to illegally pay $68,550 on polls for Murkowski's failed 2006 re-election campaign. Murkowski, Clark's indictment noted, was the only candidate who supported an oil tax and gas pipeline plan that Veco backed. Murkowski has not been charged in the Alaska political corruption probe.

[President Bartlet]

Surely with Lehman brothers going belly up and the American economy in the sh1t generally - this will help Obama - its the economy stupid - Bush and the GOP have screwed America - and there can be no way the Americans, especially those in the blue collar crucial swing states could give this failed and discredited party another four years! If they vote for McCain after it was the GOP that f****d the economy then they deserve the economic mess they are in

[meriwether]

The race has narrowed to Florda, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan according to Washington Post. Obama has flipped Iowa, and McCain is trying to flip New Hampshire.

This is going to be won 270+ v 260+, rather than Obama redefining the electoral map with his 400+ rout as some were predicting after his Primary win.

[Squire Allworthy]

Surely with Lehman brothers going belly up and the American economy in the sh1t generally - this will help Obama - its the economy stupid - Bush and the GOP have screwed America - and there can be no way the Americans, especially those in the blue collar crucial swing states could give this failed and discredited party another four years! If they vote for McCain after it was the GOP that f****d the economy then they deserve the economic mess they are in

They are both poor on the economy.

As a matter of interest, you insist that Bush wrecked the US economy, on that I agree, but to what exactly do you attribute the collapse? There is little point in placing hope in anyone unless there is a clear idea as to what went wrong in the first place and why.

[seabhcan]

[quote=Squire Allworthy]

Surely with Lehman brothers going belly up and the American economy in the sh1t generally - this will help Obama - its the economy stupid - Bush and the GOP have screwed America - and there can be no way the Americans, especially those in the blue collar crucial swing states could give this failed and discredited party another four years! If they vote for McCain after it was the GOP that f****d the economy then they deserve the economic mess they are in

They are both poor on the economy.

As a matter of interest, you insist that Bush wrecked the US economy, on that I agree, but to what exactly do you attribute the collapse? There is little point in placing hope in anyone unless there is a clear idea as to what went wrong in the first place and why.[/quote:4fptvord]

Very good point.

[Oldira]

The race has narrowed to Florda, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan according to Washington Post. Obama has flipped Iowa, and McCain is trying to flip New Hampshire.

This is going to be won 270+ v 260+, rather than Obama redefining the electoral map with his 400+ rout as some were predicting after his Primary win.

Certainly the map has narrowed but its still early days after the convention and the pick of Palin has electrified the GOP evangelical wing taking out of play any (slimish) hope Obama had of winning North Carolina and Georgia, two states on which Obama has spent (wasted?) a lot of money. Also the media attacks on Palin have angered women who deem any attack on her as an attack on the 'sisterhood'. However I think many of these will not vote for McCain in the end esoecially when the realise what Palin really represents. Obama has massive organisations on the ground is many states and this will surely pay dividends on election day. Obama now needs to narrow his focus a bit and concentrate on defending 4 states (New Hampshire,Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota) and try to gain Iowa (almost a certainity) New Mexico,Colorado,Nevada,Virginia,Indiana,Missouri,O hio and Florida. He wont win them all but any three should be enough. You will see volunteers that were sent to Texas for instance now being diverted to New Mexico and those in GA and NC being sent to Florida and Virginia.
Obama will sink a little lower in the polls yet but by Novemner I do think he will be back. The debates will tell a lot but it will focus voters on the fact its Obama vs McCain and not Obama vs Palin.