Obama v McCain Polling

[FutureTaoiseach]

West Virginia:
McCain 44%
Obama 39%

MBE points out that 27% of those undecided voters define themselves as Independents. So far, McCain is grabbing a majority of those Independent voters in West Virginia.

The poll shows 45% of likely voters identify themselves as conservative in West Virginia, regardless of Democrat, Republican or Independent registration.

This is a state that voted for Democratic presidential candidates from 1988-1996 inclusive, before defecting to the GOP because of coal (a major source of employment here) and social-conservatism e.g. abortion, gay marriage.

Rasmussen are also saying McCain has now pulled ahead of Obama in New Mexico. Will post the figures when they come out.

[BaudrillardNeverExisted]

Rasmussen are also saying McCain has now pulled ahead of Obama in New Mexico. Will post the figures when they come out.

McCain 49
Obama 47
4% margin of error

I posted earlier that McCain ultimately needs to hold onto one of Colorado or New Mexico. I think this puts McCain ahead in the electoral college at last (if you award him Florida which was tied the other day but leaning McCain in most other polls).

[FutureTaoiseach]

Alaska:
McCain 64%
Obama 33%

Obama can forget about whatever delusions he entertained about having a shot in this state.

Michigan:
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

New Mexico:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%

North Dakota:
McCain 55%
Obama 41%

CNN polls:

Michigan:
Obama 49%
McCain 45%

Missouri:
McCain 50%
Obama 45%

New Hampshire:
Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Virginia:
McCain 50%
Obama 46%

Pennsylvania Strategic Vision(R):
Obama 47%
McCain 45%

This is the second Pennsylvania poll in 2 days to have the gap down to 2%. Worrying for Obama.

Colorado:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%

Colorado (PPP):
Obama 47%
McCain 46%

Ohio:
Obama 49%
McCain 44%

Ohio:
McCain 48%
Obama 47%

Florida:
McCain 50%
Obama 43%

Pennsylvania:
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

Michigan InsiderAdvantage:
McCain 45%
Obama 44%

Georgia:
McCain 56%
Obama 38%

Georgia:
McCain 52%
Obama 39%

Alabama:
McCain 55%
Obama 35%

North Carolina:
McCain 47%
Obama 44%

Wyoming:
McCain 58%
Obama 39%

Idaho:
McCain 68%
Obama 29%

BaudrillardNeverExisted, Obama's lead in the Electoral College vanishes without New Mexico, based on the polling-averages in each state. It seems that yet again, the Democrats have picked someone who is unelectable. When will they learn?

McCain now leads in fivethirtyeight.com's Electoral College:

[seabhcan]

Palin's son ships out to Iraq shortly. Were any unpleasantness to befall him, I imagine Obama wouldn't stand a chance of getting elected.

[Aggressor]

Palin's son ships out to Iraq shortly. Were any unpleasantness to befall him, I imagine Obama wouldn't stand a chance of getting elected.

She's on her way back to Alaska to see him off. McCain will have to campaign on his own for a few days but the reason for her absence(especially at this time of year) will only benefit the ticket.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Nevada:
McCain 46%
Obama 45%

Mississippi:
McCain 55%
Obama 37%

Oklahoma:
McCain 63%
Obama 32%

Not only does the GOP presidential nominee have the backing of 95% of Republicans, but 41% of Oklahoma Democrats support him, too. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Democrats favor Obama. Unaffiliated voters are nearly evenly divided over the two candidates.

Missouri:
McCain 51%
Obama 45%

Maine:
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

Washington:
Obama 49%
McCain 47%

Washington state has voted Democratic for since 1988, so if Obama loses it it will be a very bad sign for his campaign, especially given the redstates (except maybe Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico) are moving beyond his reach in polls.

[FutureTaoiseach]

New Jersey:
*RV
Obama 47%
McCain 40%

*LV
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

Oregon:
Obama 46%
McCain 39%


*LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters.

[Defeated Romanticist]

McCain ain't going to win Washington. He stopped a multibillion dollar fraud at Boeing and they hate him for that up their.

New Jersey though is a state I think might fall for him.

[iago]

I think there is a little too much panic by democrats at the polls right now, and way too much optimism from republicans. The stats are correct, McCain is ahead. But whether its by 1% or 5% is frankly irrelevant at this early juncture. What we are seeing is the result of the post convention bounce McCain got from an over-excitement within the media at the nomination of Palin, a mystery, a woman, blah blah blah. However, its 55 days to polling, there are three Pres debates and ONE vp debate to come and these will radically shift the polls again,at a time which is closer to polling day and long after the Palin mania has grown stale.
We can see from the mock indignation and issue-dodging from McCain's campaign that they are genuinely terrified of debating the issues and the inevitable comparisons that will be drawn with Bush. The facts are that McCain does not differ from Bush on any major issue and this will become apparent when he has no option but to debate those issues at the official debates. Obama is a slick debater, he'll pick McCain apart on the 'differences' McCain is suggesting exist between himself and Bush. The McCain Change will be exposed for the spin it is.
As an Obama supporter I actually take heart from the polls. Even now, at the height of Palin's popularity/sympathy wave, the polls are tight and McCain really doesnt have another gear. This is it for his camapaign, its the last throw of the dice. When, (and not if), Hillary comes out and attacks Palin (which will be far more palatable to viewers than Biden doing it), she will ebb support from Palin but I think the Obama campaign are right to hold her back for a couple of weeks. This will let the Palin hoop-la calm down and Hillary will be seen to be clinically dissecting the differences between herself and Palin rather than jumping on the 'Palin-bashing' bandwagon that the GOP would spin it as.
Richardson is a very popular governor of New Mexico, he will turn it for Obama here. Obama is even now still ahead of McCain in Ohio and Kaine will seal it there and I think Obama will get Pennsylvania and Michigan too, where he is neck and neck with McCain even now at the height of Palin fever. Bill is right. It'll be comfortable in the end.

[Advent]

As an Irish/American i hope that POLICIES are put before personal life i believe the U.S.A can be a beckon of hope for the rest of the world in these troubled times.