Obama v McCain Polling

[FutureTaoiseach]

A good few national and state poll below:


ABC:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%

CBS:
McCain 46%
Obama 44%

Hotline:
Obama 44%
McCain 44%

CNN:
Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Rasmussen poll:
McCain 48%
Obama 47%

USA Today/Gallup poll:
McCain 54%
Obama 44%

(Likely voters)

McCain 50%
Obama 46%

(registered voters)

More good news for the GOP is that they are now more trusted on National Security and Iraq:

This month, the GOP pulled ahead on the issues of Iraq and National Security. Last month, the Democrats held a nine-point lead on the issue, which is considered very important for 61% of voters. Now, the GOP leads 47% to 43%. The Republicans enjoy the biggest advantage on National Security, an issue very important to 69% of voters. On this issue, the Republicans have a 50% to 40% advantage.

Michigan:
Obama 47%
McCain 46%

Key finding: "The movement in McCain's direction is coming largely from whites and men. He has moved his lead from 10 points in the last poll to 16 among white voters, and has turned a four point deficit among male voters into a three point advantage."

In addition, the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate "is a much bigger hit" than Obama's pick of Sen. Joe Biden. 45% of respondents say her choice makes them more likely to vote for McCain while just 30% say having Biden on the ticket makes them more likely to support Obama.

This should worry Obama as Democrats have always carried this state since 1992 - and PPP are actually Democrat pollsters.

Virginia SurveyUSA poll:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%

On the Virginia poll:

Key finding: "There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote."

[anitmonson]

During the GOP convention that this Presidential race is very much a race about White American power. As I looked over the sea of white republicans (with a few strategically placed token blacks) that the entire Republican format is actually all about maintaining the upper white class male domination of America. Christianity, Corporations, Energy. 5% of all the wealth in America is owned by a small group of Deep South White Males. Woman are not equal, Blacks are not equal, gays are not equal, jews are not equal Asians, South Americans, Arabs, Indians you name it...we are all a step down from the white catholic male. America is diverse. Break the domination. Spread the wealth. All men and woman are created equal. Only Obama can save America.

Furthermore, I stumble a clash yesterday and overlook to post it but anyway this clash video is entitled Obama v. McCain on Iraq & Afghanistan. US Presidential candidates have clashed sharply in recent days on Iraq, Afghanistan and the War on Terror. Watch both two statements, who do you think or believed is right? It's in http://clashorama.com/index.php...

[george hale]

During the GOP convention that this Presidential race is very much a race about White American power. As I looked over the sea of white republicans (with a few strategically placed token blacks) that the entire Republican format is actually all about maintaining the upper white class male domination of America. Christianity, Corporations, Energy. 5% of all the wealth in America is owned by a small group of Deep South White Males. Woman are not equal, Blacks are not equal, gays are not equal, jews are not equal Asians, South Americans, Arabs, Indians you name it...we are all a step down from the white catholic male. America is diverse. Break the domination. Spread the wealth. All men and woman are created equal. Only Obama can save America.

Furthermore, I stumble a clash yesterday and overlook to post it but anyway this clash video is entitled Obama v. McCain on Iraq & Afghanistan. US Presidential candidates have clashed sharply in recent days on Iraq, Afghanistan and the War on Terror. Watch both two statements, who do you think or believed is right? It's in http://clashorama.com/index.php...

White Protestant male,no?

[BaudrillardNeverExisted]

What happened to all those posters who claimed back in May that Obama would be winning "lots of states" from "coast to coast" with 400+ electoral votes? Remember how they used to say that all the polls would swing in Obama's favour once Clinton got out of the way. Oh well...

The Obama strategy of going after states like North Carolina and Indiana was never going to fly. He has never looked competitive in the bellweather state Missouri, which should have been an indicator of this. Suddenly the narrow Clinton strategy of Kerry + Ohio/Florida doesn't seem so bad. But I'll save that can of worms for later.

McCain is an awful candidate and gave a horrible speech at his convention. Despite this, he has gained a far greater bounce from his convention than Obama a week previously. I said before Obama's speech that he had to clearly move beyond the "Hope for Change" rhetoric. He failed to do this and now looks like the weak candidate I always thought he would be. Come back back Mitt and Hillary - all is forgiven!

[FutureTaoiseach]

Lots of new Rasmussen swing-state polls:

Colorado:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%

Methinks it is arguable that the decision to hold the convention in Denver may have helped the Obama vote here.

Florida:
Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Ohio:
McCain 51%
Obama 44%

Pennsylvania:
Obama 47%
McCain 45%

Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%

The Virginia figures are interesting in that they are identical to yesterday's Virginia SurveyUSA poll.

Washington state SurveyUSA poll:
Obama 49%
McCain 45%

Obama led by 17 points in June, led by 16 points in July, led 8 points in August, leads 4 points today.

[hiding behind a poster]

Lots of new Rasmussen swing-state polls:

Colorado:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%

Florida:
Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Ohio:
McCain 51%
Obama 44%

Pennsylvania:
Obama 47%
McCain 45%

Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%

The Virginia figures are interesting in that they are identical to yesterday's Virginia SurveyUSA poll.

It would seem from those figures that the McCain post-convention bounce is more of a national thing than a major swing in the swing states. So it could be that he's boosted his appeal among conservatives in the deep Red states, and gained a bit in some of the blue-collar states - but he's still only tied in Florida, and still trailing in Pennsylvania and Colorado. And that's with the benefit of a post-convention bounce. This election is gonna be close, there's no doubt about that. But in marked contrast to 2004, there's virtually never been a day this time where McCain had the electoral college based on the most recent state polls. In 2004 the college traded back and forth on a regular basis.

[Icemancometh]

Lots of new Rasmussen swing-state polls:

Colorado:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%

Florida:
Obama 48%
McCain 48%

Ohio:
McCain 51%
Obama 44%

Pennsylvania:
Obama 47%
McCain 45%

Virginia:
McCain 49%
Obama 47%

The Virginia figures are interesting in that they are identical to yesterday's Virginia SurveyUSA poll.

Oh Lordy, please don't let it come down to Florida again. 8 years ago was too bad for a repeat.

[hiding behind a poster]

Interesting that for all the hysterics from McCain supporters on here about his post-convention bounce, at NO POINT since Obama won the nomination has McCain been ahead in the electoral college projections. And, even with his surge in national polls, he seems to have only gained a small amount in a couple of blue-collar states like Ohio and Virginia - which suggests that the bulk of his gains are coming in solid red states, where he has the electoral college votes locked up anyway. See below:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/P ... -2008.html

[Defeated Romanticist]

Interesting that for all the hysterics from McCain supporters on here about his post-convention bounce, at NO POINT since Obama won the nomination has McCain been ahead in the electoral college projections. And, even with his surge in national polls, he seems to have only gained a small amount in a couple of blue-collar states like Ohio and Virginia - which suggests that the bulk of his gains are coming in solid red states, where he has the electoral college votes locked up anyway. See below:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/P ... -2008.html

HBAP, McCain has not started seriously spending in Florida, Obama has. Most observers concede that Florida will likely vote GOP this year. It has only gotten more and more Republican since 2000 and would likely vote Democratic in a big win for them, this is refleced in most of the polls on Florida. If Obama wins it will be because he wins Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia and holds off McCain in New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

But he can forget Florida. The only reason he does anything down their is to tap its rich doner base.

[FutureTaoiseach]

ARG:
Obama 47%
McCain 46%

Key findings: Obama leads McCain 78% to 13% among self-described Democrats. Last week, Obama held a 88% to 5% lead over McCain among Democrats. McCain leads 85% to 5% among self-described Republicans and Obama leads 48% to 43% among self-described independents likely to vote on November 4.

Also, McCain leads among white voters 53% to 40%, up from a McCain lead of 49% to 43% last week.

On the above, I would point out that in 2004, Kerry won just 41% of the white vote.

NBC:
Obama 46%
McCain 45%

PPP(D) Florida:
McCain 50%
Obama 45%

Key finding: "A troubling trend for Obama is that as white voters move away from being undecided it seems they are almost all moving into the McCain column. Over PPP's three Florida polls the percentage of undecided white voters has gone from 11% down to 9% and now to 5% and not coincidentally McCain's share of those votes has gone from 53% to 55% to 61%. Obama will need to reverse that trend to have a chance at winning the state."

Wisconsin Strategic-Vision(R) poll:
Obama 46%
McCain 43%

Michigan:
Obama 45%
McCain 44%

The former is interesting because for months now it seemed Obama would carry Wisconsin handily, whereas now it seems to be returning to the tossup state it was in 2000 and 2004 when Gore/Kerry only just squeaked through (by around 0.1% in 2004).

Maryland:
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

New Jersey:
Obama 47%
McCain 41%

North Carolina:
McCain 58%
Obama 38%

The above is especially worrying for Obama, given for months he had only trailed McCain by single-digits and it was a state he had hoped to put in play.

Oklahoma SurveyUSA poll:
McCain 65%
Obama 32%

Montana Rasmussen poll:
McCain 53%
Obama 42%

Also, Ron Paul will be on the ballot in Montana, as the Constitution Party nominee, even though he isn't officially running.