Obama v McCain Polling

[youngdan]

What does it say of a candidate that is afraid to debate McCain who has a wavering understanding of reality himself.

[Defeated Romanticist]

[quote=NotDevsSon][quote=Defeated Romanticist]

McCain could now be looking at a blowout.

DR, even by your standards, that's an astonishing statement.

If McCain picks Pawlenty or Romney will win the Great Lakes region; Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin(a state lost by bush by 6000 votes), that's his blowout.[/quote:17kj1chv]

DR, it has been shown over and over again that presidential elections don't work like that. It is simply a media myth repeated ad nausaum come each election. When you look through the stats you find election after election and election where the VP nominee does not even win their own state let alone a region. Even the supposed 'great example', LBJ with JFK, actually doesn't hold water. With LBJ on the ticket JFK's support went up in Texas by less than the national average, and the Republicans got 48%. In election after election after election, if the VP nominee's state was won, the evidence shows it was going to be win anyway. If it was lost it was going to be lost anyway.

VPs may largely be an irrelevance - John Nance Garner said that the VP "isn't worth a pitcher of warm piss" (it has later been cleaned up to say "spit" (how can spit be warm?) and others credited with it, but it was actually said by Garner, FDR's 1st VP). The only electoral benefit that comes from VPs is that it allows a second person to travel to other parts of the country on behalf of the candidate, so allowing twice the bang for the candidate's buck. But is it worthless in electoral college terms - that's why Obama picked someone from the electorally irrelevant Delaware. He isn't aiming to win a state or a region. He is aiming to win the sort of Catholic blue-collar workers that identify with Biden. The 'winning a state/region' is just an old wives' tale trotted out by journalists who know little more than what they read their colleagues writing and just rehash each other's myths. Politicians stopped believing in the 'VP winning a state/region' mallarkey decades ago when they found it to be demonstrably untrue.[/quote:17kj1chv]
2 words NDS, Spiro Agnew.

He won it for Nixon.

[Squire Allworthy]

NDS

I agree it is weird, with Bush in office and McCain you would think easy, but consider also the poll rating of the Congress it is even lower than Bush's.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107242/congr ... cords.aspx

Nancy Pelosi can take a fair whack of that responsibility.

The Democrats are starting to talk like a party defeated. Apparently a fair number of senior people and funders will be heading home before Obama's speech. If there is any real substance in this then it is a bad sign.

If Obama loses he it will have little to do with Clinton or race and an awful lot to do with himself. Some really bad judgement calls. Pride only breeds quarrels, but you never know he may pull through.

Starting the blame game is so stupid it can become self fulfilling.

What does it say of a candidate that is afraid to debate McCain who has a wavering understanding of reality himself.

The job is perhaps above his pay grade?

Perhaps time to invest in property in Switzerland. They take nuclear war seriously there! Chalet with fall out shelter please.



EDIT

Came across this it is total bias, but the imagery it conjured up appealed to my sense of humour.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpa ... inionsbox1

[hiding behind a poster]

Lads, will ye ever take it easy. All the McCainiacs here are having wet dreams over this so-called "Obama tanking" story, and I'd remind you of a few things -

Firstly, no polls carried out yet have factored in any effect from the convention. Secondly, Obama has actually been, relatively speaking, out of the news for much of the last couple of weeks - but when he's in the news, his ratings go up - more than McCain's do. Look back through the primaries and you'll see what I mean. Thirdly, look at the electoral map on www.electoral-vote.com - then flick back and forth from "this day in 2004" to today. Notice how much less "Solid Red" there is on the map this year. McCain is having to spend money in states that he should stroll home in, and that's stretching his resources, and taking them away from key swing states. That will tell come November.

[hiding behind a poster]

(Double Post)

[hiding behind a poster]

Incidentally, Evan Bayh has just rattled through a speech like he had a train to catch..... Anyway, Bill's up now.

[youngdan]

As can be predicted I am not a fan of Slick Willie but in all honesty does he not put Bush, Gore, Kerry McCain and Obama to shame.

I saw a poll from Nevada but the link did not work for me but it had both at 41%. However it had Barr at 5 Nader at 6 and McKinney at 3%. This 9% is largely anti-war who see through Obama and Barr's 5 are what I would call conservatives. This was a CNN poll.

Now Kerry is on. Listening to him is more torture than even the Viet Cong could inflict.

This is what I consider a speach.
javascript:NVF_toggleBox('429496729501', 'http://www.youtube.com/v/CvzcLgx14G0','u-AFQjCNH-HViDYK6rrj9V4nn6D-eXPImeNw:v-0-1_1240068039', 'n');

Wake Up America

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... tion&vt=lf

[Squire Allworthy]

Did someone pop a few pills in Kucinich's coffee before he went on? Is it true he went on to party the night away to the sound of 9 inch nails?

[youngdan]

Judging by his hot hot wife, he has got to have a nine inch nail himself.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Florida:
Obama 45%
McCain 44%

Florida:
McCain 49%
Obama 42%

Pennsylvania:
Obama 48%
McCain 43%

Colorado:
McCain 47%
Obama 46%

New Mexico:
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

Nevada:
Obama 49%
McCain 44%

Rhode Island:
Obama 51%
McCain 30%

Also, some intriguing electoral history of all the US states since the 1948 presidential elections. r/d denotes the state was won by the GOP/Democrats and the number beside it is by how much. Green denotes an independent won.