Obama v McCain Polling

[Defeated Romanticist]

Not sure if there is much point of putting much detail into the polls of the next 2 weeks.

Obama is going to get a bounce this week from the convention and something for the Biden nomination. It is a shame McCain did not make his houses gaffe at a different time so the effect of this could be analysed.
Mccain will come back strongly next weekend with his VEEP choice and the Republican convention.
I reckon that the 1st real polls will be mid-September after intense national coverage.

True, but while both candidates will get a bounce, it'll be interesting to see which gets the bigger bounce. Also, the convention fortnight gives Obama an advantage, because one of his assets over McCain (his far superior public-speaking) will be seen in sharper focus. Americans will get to see both candidates make major speeches within about a week of each other, and will, concsiously or otherwise, make a comparison based on that.

Obama has nothing to say. McCain has something to say. His thunderous denunciation of Michael Moore wa a highlight of the 2004 Convention. McCain is like Beethoven's 6th, always worth Listening to, Obama is like mmmbop, sure we all sung it in ur heads for a few weeks, but now the whole spiel is rather pathetic.

Expect fireworks at the DNC with Bill.

[hiding behind a poster]

[quote=Defeated Romanticist]

Not sure if there is much point of putting much detail into the polls of the next 2 weeks.

Obama is going to get a bounce this week from the convention and something for the Biden nomination. It is a shame McCain did not make his houses gaffe at a different time so the effect of this could be analysed.
Mccain will come back strongly next weekend with his VEEP choice and the Republican convention.
I reckon that the 1st real polls will be mid-September after intense national coverage.

True, but while both candidates will get a bounce, it'll be interesting to see which gets the bigger bounce. Also, the convention fortnight gives Obama an advantage, because one of his assets over McCain (his far superior public-speaking) will be seen in sharper focus. Americans will get to see both candidates make major speeches within about a week of each other, and will, concsiously or otherwise, make a comparison based on that.

Obama has nothing to say. McCain has something to say. His thunderous denunciation of Michael Moore wa a highlight of the 2004 Convention. McCain is like Beethoven's 6th, always worth Listening to, Obama is like mmmbop, sure we all sung it in ur heads for a few weeks, but now the whole spiel is rather pathetic.

[/quote:2tioqfz0]

Seriously DR, would you ever grow up? You don't like Obama, you prefer McCain - fine. But Obama wouldn't be where he is if he had "nothing to say". He will speak about jobs, gas prices, national security, etc. So will McCain. Both will be long on aspiration and short on specifics - because that's what you do when you're speaking to the entire nation. What matters is which one will make the connection with swing voters in swing states. And both will be saying something to those voters.

[FutureTaoiseach]

These are the probabilities fivethirtyeight.com gives to each state being Red or Blue this year.



Ohio:
Obama 44%
McCain 43%

Florida:
McCain 47%
Obama 43%

Florida:
McCain 42%
Obama 39%

Pennsylvania:
Obama 49%
McCain 42%

Texas:
McCain 54%
Obama 44%

Gendjinn I suspect even 23% is unrealistic for under-30s, given it was just 17% in 2004.

But his point is that Obama's campaign's working of the under-30 group, plus his greater appeal to that group compared to previous candidates, and his campaign's organising of that group, will increase the turnout among that group. In that case, why is 23% so unrealistic?

Because the latest CNN polling figures say the number of young people who say they will certianly vote has fallen from 66% to 46% and that suggests enthusiasm is failing. The youth vote are always the great white hope for Democratic presidential contenders, and they were supposed to turn out last time and they didn't in any higher proportions in 2004. We've heard this sort of prediction before and it hardly ever turns out to be true that the youth vote will turn out.

[hiding behind a poster]

Ohio:
Obama 44%
McCain 43%


Pennsylvania:
Obama 49%
McCain 42%

Those two states alone would effectively give Obama the election. Also, an interesting thing to do is go to electoral-vote.com , and when looking at the coloured map, click on the "On this day in 2004" link - then just go back and forth a couple of times. The solidly blue sections are largely unchanged, but note how much less solid red there is - it really jumps out at you. And it tells you just on how many fronts McCain's campaign will have to spread resources to hold areas where they should be comfortable. That will become a major problem as Obama's money advantage starts to take hold.

[NotDevsSon]

The latest Gallop poll, covering the period after Biden's selection as VP nominee, shows McCain ahead and no bounce whatsoever for the Democrats. That will worry the Democrats. They expected a jump among blue collar and Catholic voters. The reverse has happened.

Gallop poll

Other polls show that if he had picked Clinton he would have jumped by 4-6% and more importantly experienced a major swing in the key groups he has to win but isn't. It also nails the myth that Clinton would have 'energised' the conservative voters - they are shown to already be voting against Obama, and her negatives are lower than McCain's and lower than Biden's, and only marginally higher than Obama's own negative ratings. No wonder people across the political spectrum thought the selection of Clinton would be a no-brainer, and the selection of anyone else but Clinton potential suicide. As one Republican figure was reported in the media to have said once the nomination of Biden was announced: 'Obama has just delivered President McCain'.

But then already the Democrats in the organisation of the convention has shown that his people haven't a clue. They forgot to mention Bush at all, other than the more politically astute Ted Kennedy who did with the media. Media commentators, Democratic old hands, GOP strategists, are all bemused by the amateurism shown to date at the convention. But then not even giving the pretence of considering Clinton by the nomination has effectively guaranteed 1/4 of people who backed Clinton will defect of McCain. Talk about political suicide. What sort of amateurs has Obama around him? They should be setting narrative that draws strong contrasts. The Democrats in 2004 blew that campaign by not setting the contrast clearly in the convention. Academics often say that August is the key month for Democrats. They have to establish their control of the public perception of the election narrative. August is the month the Democrats do it. If they fail, then it is the Republican narrative that wins and delivers a victory. All this month the Republicans have defined Obama - as a celebrity, something which has now begun to be attached to his image and something which is a turn-off for many swing voters. The Democrats were confident that before the convention Obama would be 5-8% ahead, with an additional bounce after the convention then leaving McCain too far back to come back. Instead, going into the convention they were neck-and-neck, and now during the convention McCain is ahead.

If Obama loses, and that is looking more and more likely, it will have been, as with past Democratic candidates, the failure to capitalise on August that will have lost the race. That is the month he needed to set his narrative of himself, and leave the Republicans for the rest of the campaign fighting for a comeback. If the McCain-written narrative of Obama cannot be destroyed almost immediately, then it will be how millions see him for the rest of the campaign. With the wrong narrative hitting home, a VP nominee that has failed to deliver a bounce, a convention to date that has failed to set up the contrast sharply enough, and a lot of Clinton supporters for whom Obama's failure even to consider her for VP has caused sufficient offence to prove the last straw with him, Obama is in trouble. It was said some months ago after Obama took the nomination that it was unthinkable for him to be behind McCain by the last week of August. If he was, then he would be in deep deep trouble. The unthinkable is happening, leading experienced Democratic tacticians according to media reports to say privately that something is terribly wrong, with the candidate just not gelling with the electorate the way they were sure he would. For McCain to be ahead at the start of the last week of August, or him even to be tied, means in effect, given Obama's charisma, and speaking ability, that it is McCain who is winning the race so far. McCain is way ahead of where he could have been expected to be, with Obama way behind where he should be at the start of the convention. As a Democratic supporter I'd have to say, that is not good, not good at all.

[Squire Allworthy]

NDS

But Pelosi thinks the polls understate Obama's support. Well if Nancy says it, can it possible be?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12839.html

And on religion and Biden and Peloski

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/26 ... communion/

[youngdan]

Leaving aside Romney and Paul who I liked. Can anyone disagree with the statement that the only reason McCain won was because the rest were so loathsome that only a small percentage would vote for them. Seriously, the Huckster, Rudy, Hunter, Sleepy Fred, the other Thompson and Gilmore.

Now the dems have picked someone that can not beat even McCain. Even with all her baggage who would not say that Clinton would have this wrapped up by now

[Defeated Romanticist]

They are making a hayms of their convention. James Carville said it was shocking that not only as NDS said they havn't mentioned Bush, but not focused on the domestic issues they need to to win. It's a quarter over now and it's looking like it will end in disaster for the Democrats with the stadium acceptance address going like Kinnock's speech in 1992. Being so close together could also dent any bounce for the Democrats too.McCain could now be looking at a blowout.

[hiding behind a poster]

Leaving aside Romney and Paul who I liked. Can anyone disagree with the statement that the only reason McCain won was because the rest were so loathsome that only a small percentage would vote for them. Seriously, the Huckster, Rudy, Hunter, Sleepy Fred, the other Thompson and Gilmore.

That's a very important point - and it tells us that the Republicans know they'll lose this time. As a result any ambitious Republican with a grain of sense is steering well clear of the ticket, and holding back for 2012.

Now the dems have picked someone that can not beat even McCain. Even with all her baggage who would not say that Clinton would have this wrapped up by now

Obama will win. Just about every big event from here on in favours him. The voters will get to contrast his speaking ability with that of McCain, within a week of each other - no contest. Obama's financial advantage will now start to kick in, particularly as McCain is having to stretch his resources by spending in mid-western states that should be secure but aren't. Then there's the debates - not only is Obama a far far better debater, but also McCain's campaign (as always with an unpopular incumbent party) is almost entirely negative. That works in its own ways, but what all those swing voters will see through the three debates is one man being positive, and one man being negative. That will also have its effect.

[hiding behind a poster]

McCain could now be looking at a blowout.

DR, even by your standards, that's an astonishing statement.