So Clinton supporters bleeding off to McCain? Though in general Clinton supporters were coming around to Obama, so perhaps a short-term emotional reaction that will reverse again. Going to make the convention, especially Clinton's speeches interesting.CNN
DENVER, Colorado (CNN) — It’s a dead heat in the race for the White House. The first national poll conducted entirely after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and Republican rival John McCain is all tied up.
In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama with an equal amount supporting the Arizona senator.
“This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
So what’s the difference now?
It may be supporters of Hillary Clinton, who still would prefer the Senator from New York as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee.
Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters, registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee, are now backing Obama. That’s down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they’ll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.
cYp
"Yawn , am I alive yet ?"
Florida is interesting with Biden on the ticket. Apparently he's a favourite with many of the little old ladies who retire to the state.Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
If McCain picks a female running mate it may get very interesting. Agree both the Clintons' speeches will be very interesting. My view is that they are realists more than connivers. They will do what is expected and urge party unity, but I don't think that will make much difference to the hardcore of her support. A lot of people just do not like Obama, race and all the bitterness in the Primaries has nothing to do with it. This has little to do with the Clintons. The problem is Obama. If the candidate was say Gore this problem would not arise. What the liberal wing of the party seem to refuse to accept is that a segment of their support base really do not like the candidate for whatever reason.
Not sure if there is much point of putting much detail into the polls of the next 2 weeks.
Obama is going to get a bounce this week from the convention and something for the Biden nomination. It is a shame McCain did not make his houses gaffe at a different time so the effect of this could be analysed.
Mccain will come back strongly next weekend with his VEEP choice and the Republican convention.
I reckon that the 1st real polls will be mid-September after intense national coverage.
Some interesting numbers here from the latest Zogby report last Friday.
Bob Barr seems to have surged up to double digits in some states.
This could be a big factor against McCain in these key states.
This might also explain why the RNC are trying to get Barr off the ballot in Penns http://www.foxreno.com/politics/17258065/detail.html. (which is a disgrace).
I do know that these 3rd party candidates will fall off without the money and press of the others but impressive numbers.
Battleground States Obama McCain Barr Nader Not Sure/Other
Colorado (purple) 44% 38% 8% 2% 8%
Florida (red) 40% 43% 5% 1% 12%
Michigan (blue) 46% 37% 5% 1% 12%
Nevada (purple) 39% 38% 10% 3% 10%
New Hampshire (purple) 38% 42% 11% 1% 9%
New Mexico (blue) 46% 37% 5% 1% 11%
North Carolina (purple) 47% 39% 3% 2% 9%
Ohio (purple) 41% 36% 8% 1% 13%
Pennsylvania (blue) 46% 37% 5% 3% 8%
Virginia (purple) 43% 41% 5% 1% 10%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1543
But his point is that Obama's campaign's working of the under-30 group, plus his greater appeal to that group compared to previous candidates, and his campaign's organising of that group, will increase the turnout among that group. In that case, why is 23% so unrealistic?
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
When it comes polling Gallup is the only one worth a damn. The rest are spoofers.
Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.
True, but while both candidates will get a bounce, it'll be interesting to see which gets the bigger bounce. Also, the convention fortnight gives Obama an advantage, because one of his assets over McCain (his far superior public-speaking) will be seen in sharper focus. Americans will get to see both candidates make major speeches within about a week of each other, and will, concsiously or otherwise, make a comparison based on that.
"Elite - a small superior group; esp one that has a power out of proportion to its size." (Oxford English Dictionary)
The majority cannot therefore be the elite.
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