Obama v McCain Polling

[Universal_001]

He seems much better at cutting off Republican attacks at the knees than Kerry was, particularly in the recent exchange over Iran and with his race speech in March. if Wright crops up again he may need to give another even more definitive speech particularly as he has had to change his position on the issue and has resigned fron his church.

Actually he is not particularly good (being better than Kerry is a bit like saying Manchester City are better than Walsall!) at ending controversies. He needed to kill of the Wright issue in one go cleanly. He has had to revisit it repeatedly, adding in more and more, and still has not killed off the story decisively, which he could have done if he had faced up to it when it first appeared. A host of lesser issues have arisen in the last 5 months but Obama has not cleanly killed them off either.

In fairnes the people who think hes a super secret anti american muslem are probably not open to logical persuasion, I think we can consider them a lost cause..

[Clareman]

The south will be interesting this year for instance Obama might only have to win 25% of the white vote in Mississippi[?too many s's] to take that state, having said that Kerry took only 14%.

[Universal_001]

The south will be interesting this year for instance Obama might only have to win 25% of the white vote in Mississippi[?too many s's] to take that state, having said that Kerry took only 14%.

Kerry was all over the place on every issue, he didn't deserve to be elected.

[FutureTaoiseach]

West Virginia poll:

McCain 45%
Obama 38%

Neither man is terribly popular in the state. McCain earns favorable reviews from 48% and unfavorable ratings from another 48%. The numbers for Obama are 40% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Those figures include 26% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain and 35% with such a negative view of Obama.

This is one state Obama will not win, and historically, since 1916 no Democrat has become president without winning it.

The south will be interesting this year for instance Obama might only have to win 25% of the white vote in Mississippi[?too many s's] to take that state, having said that Kerry took only 14%.

Realistically, I doubt an African-American man is going to lead to a big increase in the White vote for the Democratic presidential candidate in MS, considering how racially-polarised voting is in this state. Especially when conservative Mississippians find out how liberal Obama is. The recent House election of Travis Childers (D) is misleading - he was espousing essentially traditional Republican positions on abortion, gun control etc. But I agree with you that the South will be an interesting region in this election, especially as historically, no Democratic presidents got in without a Southern state. I feel his prospects will depend on the size of the African-American turnout. It was only 34% in Georgia in 2004 for example. The question is whether he can motivate them to register and turn out on the day. Even if they can, it might not be enough. Only 30% of Southern Whites voted for Kerry in 2004. What evidence is there that Obama would do any better with them? Considering the history of this region, he could actually do worse.

The only Southern states I see him as having a (long) shot in are Florida and Virginia. The recent elections of Virginia Democratic Governors and Senators Warner, Kaine and Webb was driven largely by the growth of more liberal Northern Virginia suburbs of DC. A lot will depend on the turnout there as well as of the 25% African-American population. He will need to attract about 1/3rd of the Virginia White population, which will also mean doing passably in the rural southwest of the state where Kaine was able to do okay in in 2005. This part of the country tends to resemble the Bible Belt in cultural terms, and I am not putting any money on him pulling it off. Regarding Florida, opportunities come from the 18% Hispanic population and the 16% African-American population. The problem is that maybe half the Hispanics are Cuban-Americans who have been sour on the Democrats since the failed Bay of Pigs invasion under Kennedy.

[Universal_001]

The general election campagn just started a few days ago FT...might be a bit early to call the state

[Squire Allworthy]

This should be entertaining.

Mayor Daley's man runs for President. Don't know about clean politics but it will be a change. Chicago instead of Washington, mmm!!!!

[FutureTaoiseach]

Latest Electoral College projections are unchanged except that Virginia moves to leans Republican from Safe Republican, while South Carolina moves back into Safe GOP from leans GOP. Ohio is pretty much deadlocked 50.3-49.7 on hominidviews' averages. Historically the winner nearly always wins this state and Missouri. I don't expect Indiana to be in play in November, and expect it to remain in GOP hands barring a shock.

Obama 277
McCain 261

[Squire Allworthy]

FT

That map has the cold chill of reality about it, you can see where the battle ground will be. It shows how important Ted Strickland would have been. Looks like it is blue collar vote country that will decide the election.

[FutureTaoiseach]

FT

That map has the cold chill of reality about it, you can see where the battle ground will be. It shows how important Ted Strickland would have been. Looks like it is blue collar vote country that will decide the election.

Yes.

[khavakoz]

Obama 277
McCain 261

And yet again the map of Electoral College Votes shows:
Obama 287
McCain 251