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About LinkBacksSomeone just send me a message that said voting goes down 2.5% among Democrats when it rains, according to CNN. What babies. It's supposed to rain tomorrow in the metro DC area, bad for Virginia.Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster
Someone just send me a message that said voting goes down 2.5% among Democrats when it rains, according to CNN. What babies. It's supposed to rain tomorrow in the metro DC area, bad for Virginia.
bye-bye Empire, Empire bye-bye
I'm in the DC weather band and our forecast [accuweather] says overcast on Tuesday with possibly some light rain in the late afternoon. Don't see it really being a problem.
Obama by 7.1% in new Zogby poll
Zogby International
I'm in the DC weather band too. And it's highly possible I'm overthinking this thing. The nerves have set in
bye-bye Empire, Empire bye-bye
I'm honestly at this stage glad it will soon be over.
To be frank though - I can't wait to see a comprehensive list compiled by someone with time to waste on FT's catalogue of predictions. Throughout the Primary campaign and into the general - we have seen time after time FT hang his coat on the nail of some other Controversy, only a few of which I can remember.
First there was Rev. Wright - which meant that noone would vote for Obama. They did.
Then there was Bill Ayers - Likewise, and again, it didn't work.
Then there was the Michelle factor. Then there was the Whitey Tape. Then Bittergate. Then something about Obama not actually being American. Then a Picture of Obama in traditional robes. Then we were told that Obama could never win California as he had lost it in the primaries. Then ACORN, then Palin was literally going to take every white woman voter from Obama. Then McCain blew him away in all three debates. Then the GoP fraud kicked in, the polls tightened and some hitherto unseen GoP GOTV campaign kicked in.
After all that lot, it is amazing that Obama is even in this race at this stage. Instead, FT is pinning his hopes for his 500 quid from Paddy the Plasterer on a last ditch smear by Faux News. One day remains before the Vote and *now* is seemingly a good day to unload this massive faultline in Obama's campaign? If the attack had validity, it would have been used months ago. If the McCain campaign has an ounce of confidence, it would have been.
Instead the final polls from some of the main groups are as follows:
Battlegound O:50 - M:44
Rasmussen O:52 M:45
Gallup O:55 M:44
R2000 O:51 M:45
(sorry - I don;t have linkies to the last three)
Zogby's final poll will be along later in the day, but his last one was O:51 M:44
[hr]
Two more last last trackers -
Marist O:53 M:44
Diageo/Hotline O:50 M:45
Last edited by khavakoz; 3rd November 2008 at 05:29 PM. Reason: two more trakcers
entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem
Won't stop FutureTaoiseach clinging on to it, though.
Actually Fox has played the audio on Obama and coal this morning. I heard it.
You have to hand it to Fox. Only they can run an opinion poll(WSJ) giving Obama an 8% lead the night before an election with the headline "It's Narrowing" !
Everyone's nerves are frayed at this point - just listening to the contradicting comments of the pundits is amazing. Be so glad when it is all over...with the right result.I'm in the DC weather band too. And it's highly possible I'm overthinking this thing. The nerves have set in
This sort of right result?
With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.
The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.
Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.
Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.
It's going to take either a miracle or widespread and large-scale fraud for McCain to win. Let's hope he doesn't pull a Lewis Hamilton.
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