Obama v McCain Polling

[The Red Rose of Cork]

CNN's new Electoral College map, updated Sunday morning, moves Montana from "leaning John McCain" to "tossup."

The move is partially based on the new CNN poll of polls in Montana, compiled Friday, which suggests that McCain has a 1-point lead over his Democratic rival, Barack Obama, 46 percent to 45 percent. Nine percent of voters are undecided.

"The fact that Montana is up for grabs has to be extremely unsettling for the McCain campaign," said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib.

"Montana's usually a reliably Republican state in presidential campaigns. It's been won by the Democrats only twice in the past half century. If you're a Republican and you're fighting for Montana in the last few days of the campaign, you're not in good shape."

Three electoral votes are at stake in Montana, a state Obama visited in late August. McCain, the Republican nominee, has not campaigned in Montana during the general election.

With Montana moving to "tossup," CNN estimates that if the election were held today, Obama would win states with 291 electoral votes -- more than enough to capture the White House.

Also Palin is now seen as a hinderance rather than a help to McCain:

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday indicates McCain's running mate is growing less popular among voters and may be costing him a few crucial percentage points in the race for the White House.

Fifty-seven percent of likely voters questioned in the poll said Palin does not have the personal qualities a president should have. That's up 8 points since September.

Fifty-three percent say she does not agree with them on important issues. That's also higher than September.

"Just after the GOP convention in early September, 53 percent said they would vote for Palin over Joe Biden if there were a separate vote for vice president. Now, Biden would beat Palin by 12 points if the running mates were chosen in a separate vote," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

And what if voters were allowed to vote for president separately?

"It would be a 4-point edge for Barack Obama, 52 percent to 48 percent. Since the McCain-Palin ticket is currently getting 46 percent in a match-up against the Obama-Biden ticket, it looks like Palin's presence on the GOP ballot is taking 2 percentage points away from McCain. In a close race, that might represent the margin of victory," Holland said.

The unfavorable numbers for Palin, Alaska's governor, also have been growing. They are 8 points higher in the current poll than in early October, and they're twice as high as they were when McCain announced

So is a landslide for Obama possible?

If Montana is up for grabs then the same can be said for North Dakota. McCain will be left with the south and the prairie belt

[hiding behind a poster]

Fox are all over this and they nearly destroyed Obama's campaign last March over Rev Wright. They have 54% of the primetime cable audience. So don't underestimate how much damage this could do. A lot of non-coal workers in coal-states who don't work in the coal-industry will be concerned about the future of their state economies under an Obama/Democratic admin. That's one of the reason West Virginia went Republican for president since 2000. In close states this could be enough to swing them to McCain.

Mark my words, on Wednesday morning the US will wake up to a McCain victory. I am increasingly certain. Paddypower.com will soon reward my intuition with a €500 payout, methinks.

Moderators, why don't we have an emoticon for "I'm talking through my Swiss Roll and I know it"?

[myksav]

1948 actually.

I still say that it's never too late for an October/November Surprise to affect the election. Remember in 2000 when George W Bush lost the popular vote following a last-minute revelation of DUI.

You have to remember that while only 174,000 people are employed in the US coal-industry, the industry provides 43% of American electricity.

That reminds me, where's that October Suprise you kept promising?

[hiding behind a poster]

Still I think its Obama's to lose and I think only a monumental fvck up of monumental proportions would swing it. Didnt Harry Truman pull it out of the bag to win in '52 to beat Dewey at the post?

No, it was 1948 - and more significantly Gallup, the only pollster active back then, did no polling in the final week, so the late swing to Truman wasn't picked up.

[hiding behind a poster]

That reminds me, where's that October Suprise you kept promising?

According to FT, it would seem that the surprise about the October Surprise is that it'll come in November.

[East Coast Elitist]

We need to see a poll taken after the coal controversy. I think that could potentially help flip Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado to McCain.

Coal controversy? Ha. If McCain/Palin were going to pull another lie out of their ass to smear Obama, they needed to do it weeks ago for it to have even a chance at working.

Lies, Half Truths and Contradictions: Chronicle ''Hidden'' Audio on Obama

It's not true.

But the Drudge Report, the Republican National Committee and apparently even GOP VP candidate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin fell for completely fabricated news from a shady website called Newsbusters today suggesting the San Francisco Chronicle has ''hidden'' audio with Sen. Barack Obama regarding his statements on coal.
SFGate: Politics Blog : Lies, Half Truths and Contradictions: Chronicle ''Hidden'' Audio on Obama

[The Red Rose of Cork]

Obama 52 - 46 McCain in latest Rasmussen survey. The 52% equals Obama's highest rating in the campaign

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

[The Red Rose of Cork]

if you look at the rasmussen state surveys for 2004 you'll notice how closely they replicate the actual result
RR Presidential Track

[hiding behind a poster]

Isn't the internet a wonderful thing:

Forecast Earth from The Weather Channel

Thought I'd be all day finding forecasts for the key states. Anyway, but for possible showers in Philadelphia, its looking good for turnout.....

[westair]

No, it was 1948 - and more significantly Gallup, the only pollster active back then, did no polling in the final week, so the late swing to Truman wasn't picked up.

Actually did no polling in the final two weeks - and in addition, they did their polling exclusively by telephone. Most working class Americans did not own telephones in 1948 so Gallup's "representative pool" of voters did not accurately reflect the entire electorate.

These are the reasons why a comparison with 1948 and any present day polls is not fully justified.