Obama v McCain Polling

[Leftfemme22]

Fox are all over this and they nearly destroyed Obama's campaign last March over Rev Wright. They have 54% of the primetime cable audience. So don't underestimate how much damage this could do. A lot of non-coal workers in coal-states who don't work in the coal-industry will be concerned about the future of their state economies under an Obama/Democratic admin. That's one of the reason West Virginia went Republican for president since 2000. In close states this could be enough to swing them to McCain.

Mark my words, on Wednesday morning the US will wake up to a McCain victory. I am increasingly certain. Paddypower.com will soon reward my intuition with a €500 payout, methinks.

You honestly think that Fox are that persuasive? You utterly fail to acknowledge that those who take their opinion from Fox news made their mind up long ago. Fox as a great persuader is an utterly laughable concept.

I wouldn’t be surprise if the GOP try to engineer a fraud to secure election, but the size of that fraud in this case would be so huge that it would cause untold unrest amongst the plebiscite at large.

I think you're grasping FT, I think you are fuelled by spite at this stage and simply can’t accept your worldview is now a minority one.

I'd get used to it if I were you. This is only the beginning.

[DaveM]

Fox are all over this and they nearly destroyed Obama's campaign last March over Rev Wright. They have 54% of the primetime cable audience. So don't underestimate how much damage this could do. A lot of non-coal workers in coal-states who don't work in the coal-industry will be concerned about the future of their state economies under an Obama/Democratic admin. That's one of the reason West Virginia went Republican for president since 2000. In close states this could be enough to swing them to McCain.

Mark my words, on Wednesday morning the US will wake up to a McCain victory. I am increasingly certain. Paddypower.com will soon reward my intuition with a €500 payout, methinks.

Not too bad for Obama.... it could be worse. Palin believing that the crank call was actually Sarkozy was priceless. The impersonation was no better than a bad Pepe le Pew and that dozy hick still fell for it!

That the Republican's love her so much is something that should terrify the rest of the world.

[gnash1970]

If I'm wrong I will admit it. But I won't be. If you're wrong will you apologise for ridiculing my predictions?

If the Republicans commit wholesale electoral fraud that costs Obama the election I'll happily admit you were right.

[FutureTaoiseach]

You honestly think that Fox are that persuasive? You utterly fail to acknowledge that those who take their opinion from Fox news made their mind up long ago. Fox as a great persuader is an utterly laughable concept.

I wouldn’t be surprise if the GOP try to engineer a fraud to secure election, but the size of that fraud in this case would be so huge that it would cause untold unrest amongst the plebiscite at large.

I think you're grasping FT, I think you are fuelled by spite at this stage and simply can’t accept your worldview is now a minority one.

I'd get used to it if I were you. This is only the beginning.

And what is my "world view"? I want Obama to win because both parties are centre-right on economic policy by Irish standards, but I oppose the Iraq War and the influence of the Religious Right. But I expect the GOP to win and my winnings from paddypower.com will sweeten the pill.

[The Red Rose of Cork]

Obama ahead by 8% in final NBC/WSJ poll.

This compares with a Bush lead of 1% over Kerry in the same poll four years ago

Poll: Obama holds significant lead - Decision '08

[FutureTaoiseach]

We need to see a poll taken after the coal controversy. I think that could potentially help flip Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado to McCain.

[The Red Rose of Cork]

We need to see a poll taken after the coal controversy. I think that could potentially help flip Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado to McCain.

thats called the election !

[Partizan]

We need to see a poll taken after the coal controversy. I think that could potentially help flip Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado to McCain.

I think you're grasping at straws there FT. Obama is too far ahead in the polls at 7% at this stage for McCain to claw back any support. What will kill McCain's campaign is Sarah Palin. Had he got someone better than that gom, we would be talking about McCain winning.

Still I think its Obama's to lose and I think only a monumental fvck up of monumental proportions would swing it. Didnt Harry Truman pull it out of the bag to win in '52 to beat Dewey at the post?

The result will be close no doubt.

[President Bartlet]

CNN's new Electoral College map, updated Sunday morning, moves Montana from "leaning John McCain" to "tossup."

The move is partially based on the new CNN poll of polls in Montana, compiled Friday, which suggests that McCain has a 1-point lead over his Democratic rival, Barack Obama, 46 percent to 45 percent. Nine percent of voters are undecided.

"The fact that Montana is up for grabs has to be extremely unsettling for the McCain campaign," said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib.

"Montana's usually a reliably Republican state in presidential campaigns. It's been won by the Democrats only twice in the past half century. If you're a Republican and you're fighting for Montana in the last few days of the campaign, you're not in good shape."

Three electoral votes are at stake in Montana, a state Obama visited in late August. McCain, the Republican nominee, has not campaigned in Montana during the general election.

With Montana moving to "tossup," CNN estimates that if the election were held today, Obama would win states with 291 electoral votes -- more than enough to capture the White House.

Also Palin is now seen as a hinderance rather than a help to McCain:

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Sunday indicates McCain's running mate is growing less popular among voters and may be costing him a few crucial percentage points in the race for the White House.

Fifty-seven percent of likely voters questioned in the poll said Palin does not have the personal qualities a president should have. That's up 8 points since September.

Fifty-three percent say she does not agree with them on important issues. That's also higher than September.

"Just after the GOP convention in early September, 53 percent said they would vote for Palin over Joe Biden if there were a separate vote for vice president. Now, Biden would beat Palin by 12 points if the running mates were chosen in a separate vote," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

And what if voters were allowed to vote for president separately?

"It would be a 4-point edge for Barack Obama, 52 percent to 48 percent. Since the McCain-Palin ticket is currently getting 46 percent in a match-up against the Obama-Biden ticket, it looks like Palin's presence on the GOP ballot is taking 2 percentage points away from McCain. In a close race, that might represent the margin of victory," Holland said.

The unfavorable numbers for Palin, Alaska's governor, also have been growing. They are 8 points higher in the current poll than in early October, and they're twice as high as they were when McCain announced

So is a landslide for Obama possible?

[FutureTaoiseach]

I think you're grasping at straws there FT. Obama is too far ahead in the polls at 7% at this stage for McCain to claw back any support. What will kill McCain's campaign is Sarah Palin. Had he got someone better than that gom, we would be talking about McCain winning.

Still I think its Obama's to lose and I think only a monumental fvck up of monumental proportions would swing it. Didnt Harry Truman pull it out of the bag to win in '52 to beat Dewey at the post?

The result will be close no doubt.

1948 actually.

I still say that it's never too late for an October/November Surprise to affect the election. Remember in 2000 when George W Bush lost the popular vote following a last-minute revelation of DUI.

You have to remember that while only 174,000 people are employed in the US coal-industry, the industry provides 43% of American electricity.