Obama v McCain Polling

[East Coast Elitist]

If it's some kind of big GOP plot, why are state officials going on television before the election demonstrating the problems for everyone to see?

ES&S Voting Machines in Tennessee Flip Votes
By Kim Zetter EmailOctober 23, 2008 | 2:10:55 PMCategories: E-Voting, Election '08
Touch-screen voting machines used in Decatur County, Tennessee, have been giving early voters problems this week by registering their votes for Republican presidential candidate John McCain as votes for Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

At least three voters complained of the problem while casting their ballot in early voting last Saturday.

It's the same problem early voters in several West Virginia counties reported having this week when they tried to vote, except their votes for Obama and other Democratic candidates were switched to McCain and other Republican candidates.

http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/200...ting-mach.html

[macdarawhitfield]

Oh FT what an old cynic you are. E E E has pointed out some of the machines are flipping votes to Obama.But wait - maybe this just means the GOP are unfit for office : they can't even rig the elections anymore!

[FutureTaoiseach]

If it's some kind of big GOP plot, why are state officials going on television before the election demonstrating the problems for everyone to see?

ES&S Voting Machines in Tennessee Flip Votes
By Kim Zetter EmailOctober 23, 2008 | 2:10:55 PMCategories: E-Voting, Election '08
Touch-screen voting machines used in Decatur County, Tennessee, have been giving early voters problems this week by registering their votes for Republican presidential candidate John McCain as votes for Democratic candidate Barack Obama.

At least three voters complained of the problem while casting their ballot in early voting last Saturday.

It's the same problem early voters in several West Virginia counties reported having this week when they tried to vote, except their votes for Obama and other Democratic candidates were switched to McCain and other Republican candidates.

ES&S Voting Machines in Tennessee Flip Votes | Threat Level from Wired.com

That is the only report so far of votes being switched to Obama. A string of reports have the opposite happening in WV, TN, TX, MO and CO. I suspect that other case was just propaganda by the GOP as a diversionary tactic.

[hiding behind a poster]

Electoral-vote.com has a dreadful record of predicting presidential winners. RCP got 49 states right in 2004, and assuming the absence of substantial fraud this time, they are likely to be closer to the mark again.

FT, electoral-vote were within the margin of error in 2004 - and anyway, the point in the piece I posted was not about the site's predictions, but a simple statistical exposition of the improbable sequence of results McCain needs to win, and the statistical probability of ALL those results occurring together. If you disagree with the maths, then explain why. Its not a question about the overall election, its a statistical point.

[Al.]

The fact that the SoS in Ohio is now a Democrat should limit the GOP's ability to rig the state this time

What do people fail to understand about a Kerry concession in 2004? Is the history-rewriting that pervasive in here?

Other than Michigan--where Obama quickly moved in an filed a lawsuit--where has it been suggested that people who are in foreclosure might have a problem?

Nowhere. That's why I called it propaganda. Besides, McCain isn't even on the ballot in Michigan.

[FutureTaoiseach]

FT, electoral-vote were within the margin of error in 2004 - and anyway, the point in the piece I posted was not about the site's predictions, but a simple statistical exposition of the improbable sequence of results McCain needs to win, and the statistical probability of ALL those results occurring together. If you disagree with the maths, then explain why. Its not a question about the overall election, its a statistical point.

I believe that pundits are usually wrong, like with Lisbon.

[FutureChiefJustice]

Professor Gary Murphy of DCU, along with every other pundit on Newstalks Talking History, have predicted an Obama win. Professor Murphy correctly predicted that FG would win big at the expense of the PDs about eight months before the last general election. He's a name I trust, despite being a Corkonian secessionist.

[hiding behind a poster]

I believe that pundits are usually wrong, like with Lisbon.

Look, I don't care about your cockeyed view of "pundits". I'm asking you if you agree with the statistical premise stated on electoral-vote.com, as quoted in my earlier post. If you disagree with the maths, then explain why.

[dotski_w_]

Besides, McCain isn't even on the ballot in Michigan.

Wot???????????????

He's stopped campaigning there, and is 16 points down there in a poll released today, but not on the ballot?

the level of contributions on this site is sinking deeper and deeper ..............

[jfk2008]

More polls from fivethirtyeight.com. Here's their commentary on the results:

Polls conducted since our update last evening suggest some tightening toward John McCain, but he sits well behind both nationwide and in many key battleground states and remains a long-shot to win the election.

The good news for McCain? SurveyUSA has become the latest pollster to show the race tightening in Pennslyvania, now giving Barack Obama a 7-point lead after he'd been in the mid-double digits at various points in October. The Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker has also continued to tighten, also settling on that 7-point number.

SurveyUSA also has Virginia tightening a bit to 4 points. And McCain gained incrementally in the Research 2000, Gallup, and Diageo/Hotline trackers, although this comes after a couple of days when Obama had been moving up. (Rasmussen held steady, whereas Obama ticked up in Zogby).

Overall, our model shows McCain closing Obama's gap in the national popular vote to about 5.4 points. His win percentage has increased to 6.3 percent, from 3.8 percent last night.

However, several cautions about reading too much into these numbers:

Firstly, I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polling conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.

Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.