Obama v McCain Polling

[FutureTaoiseach]

The fact that the SoS in Ohio is now a Democrat should limit the GOP's ability to rig the state this time. If like last time the numbers of voters in GOP counties are suspiciously high, then she might be able to order an audit of the paper trails for comparison purposes. Who is SoS in each state will be critical in determining the outcomes there. All the Kerry states except Washington and Michigan have Dem SoS's as do Iowa, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas and Tennessee. Virginia's is an Independent chosen by the legislature with bipartisan support.

[jfk2008]

More poll results from fivethirtyeight.com:



Obama's average lead in national opinion polls is just over 7%.

Some comments from fivethirtyeight.com on battleground states:

We can probably assume, however, that IF the national polls tighten significantly (and to reiterate, the likelihood is that they will NOT), McCain will edge out a victory in North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Missouri; put those states in the McCain column for the time being. Likewise, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa all appear safe for Obama, even in the case of significant tightening. Put those in the Obama column.

That leaves our five states in play. The victory conditions for Obama involving these five states proceed something as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania and ANY ONE of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, or Nevada*
2. Win Ohio and EITHER Colorado OR Virginia.
3. Win Colorado AND Virginia AND Nevada.

(* Nevada produces a 269-269 tie, which would probably be resolved for Obama in the House of Represenatives.)

Now, suppose you think that Colorado is already in the bag for Obama because of his large edge in early voting there. We can then simplify the victory conditions as follows:

1. Win Pennsylvania
2. Win Ohio
3. Win Virginia AND Nevada

That's basically what it comes down to, although I'm sure each campaign would claim that there are a larger number of states in play.

[jfk2008]

The Zogby poll shown above has been overtaken by a more recent poll which now gives Obama a 6% lead:

Marginal increase in Obama support
Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain firmed marginally to 6 points with support for both candidates steady before Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released today.

Obama leads McCain by 50 per cent to 44 per cent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, up from a 5-point advantage yesterday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

"There are two full days to go before Election Day and obviously anything can happen, but it is hard to see where McCain goes from here," pollster John Zogby said.

He said the polling data over the weekend showed that both candidates appeared to be consolidating support among their core supporters - women and independents for Obama, older voters and conservatives for McCain.

National opinion polls all give the lead to Obama, who also appears to be outflanking McCain in a number of the battleground states that will end up deciding the election.

[wombat]

Does anyone know how undecided voters are distributed. RTE had someone on the news who said 7% are undecided. If they just distribute undecideds proportionally, the result may be inaccurate as if you're not convinced by Obama at this stage, its unlikely that you will be.

[Andrew49]

The Gallup Poll Tracking, Obama has taken a 10 percentage point lead against McCain -- 52 per cent to 42 per cent -- in the category of traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters.

Poll shows Obama maintains large lead in Iowa - By The Associated Press

THE POLL: Des Moines Register poll of likely voters in Iowa (7 electoral votes)

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama, 54 percent, John McCain, 37 percent.

OF INTEREST: The poll indicates Democrat Obama has widened his lead in Iowa in the past month despite several recent visits to the state by Republican McCain and running mate Sarah Palin to the state. Palin is scheduled to campaign Monday in Dubuque.

DETAILS: Conducted Oct. 28-31 by Selzer & Co. including telephone interviews with 814 likely voters. Sampling error plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Obama increases his lead over McCain in Michigan - When it comes to balancing the budget, lowering taxes and achieving American independence from foreign oil, Michigan voters have a healthy skepticism whether Barack Obama would fulfill his campaign promises in his first term. But it hasn't cost him their support. Obama leads Republican John McCain among Michiganders who say they are certain to vote, 53%-37%, with two days left in the campaign, according to The Detroit Free Press/Local 4 Michigan Poll.

Minnesota Poll: Obama's big lead solid at the stretch - The Democrat's 11 percentage-point lead over Republican John McCain is unchanged from two weeks ago. Continued anxiety over the economy may be a factor.

After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7-point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52 percent to 42 percent. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base.

He leads among
Hispanics by38 points,
African-Americans by 88,
18- to 24-year-olds by 36,
18- to 29-year-olds by 25,
25- to 34-year-olds by 16,
women by 8,
and men by 3.

He has a 17-point lead among those who have already voted,
22 by those who have registered to vote in the past six months, moderates by 34,
Catholics by 10.
He even receives 21 percent support among conservatives.

[FutureTaoiseach]

A few Mason-Dixon polls have come out today showing McCain ahead 2% in Ohio, 3% in Missouri and North Carolina and Obama just 3% ahead in Virginia. The race is indeed tightening in some of the swing-states, but I would also caution that Mason-Dixon traditionally have better findings for Republicans for some reason, and the Columbus dispatch has a poll (including data from one day later) with Obama 6% ahead. The problem for Obama is that these are states where the results should be known early on on Tuesday morning and if he loses Ohio and Virginia people will say it's a McCain comeback and that could demoralise his supporters in the rest of the country and depress turnout. He will need to hope that Mason-Dixon are just true to form with findings better for the GOP than other pollsters. Excluding tossups, the RCP average has Obama's tally down to 291 (19 more than needed for victory). The minimum Obama needs to win is to hold onto the Kerry states, and win Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico or else maybe win the Kerry states plus New Mexico and Colorado. The latter would give him a 269-269 tie, which - assuming the EC can't muster 270 for either candidate when it meets - would leave it up to the House of Representatives to choose the president (not clear if it's the existing House or the new one meeting in January), and the Senate would choose the VP. Based on early voter-registration (52-32 Democrat) in Nevada, the fact that 60% of the 2004 turnout there have already voted, that the state has a Democrat Secretary of State, and the fact that they don't have ES+S or Diebold machines and they have a paper-trail, I expect Obama to carry Nevada. 57% of the 2004 turnout in New Mexico have already been cast ballots too, and they use optical-scanners (not touchscreens) and they again have a Democratic SoS, so I expect him to carry that too. If he loses Pennsylvania he needs to make up for it by winning Ohio or Florida.

[hiding behind a poster]

Interesting piece on www.electoral-vote.com today about the odds as they stack up for McCain in the swing states:

The latest national polls put Obama ahead by 7.8 points nationally. The Washington Post [COLOR=#0066cc]notes[/COLOR] that in the most recent 159 national polls, Obama has led them all. He also leads in all the states John Kerry won in 2004, giving him a base of 252 electoral votes. He also has led all year in Iowa and New Mexico, bringing his total to 264. Thus he needs to find five or six electoral votes in states Bush won in 2004. Today's polls suggest Florida, Ohio, and Virginia as good hunting grounds, as he leads in all of them. In addition, he has led for weeks in Colorado and is effectively tied in North Carolina and Indiana. He even has a shot at North Dakota and Montana. McCain has to win all of them. If we assume that all eight of these states are 50-50, then McCain has to flip a coin and get heads eight times in a row. The chances of this are 1 in 256. But it is worse than that since a number of these states, especially Colorado, look a lot worse for McCain than 50-50

[FutureTaoiseach]

Interesting piece on www.electoral-vote.com today about the odds as they stack up for McCain in the swing states:

Electoral-vote.com has a dreadful record of predicting presidential winners. RCP got 49 states right in 2004, and assuming the absence of substantial fraud this time, they are likely to be closer to the mark again. But I would also point out that as Senator Bob Casey(D) said just now on Late Edition on CNN, no Democrat has won over 51% of the vote in that state since 1964. I personally believe that the election will come down to this state, and that the Obama campaign are being reckless in ignoring it relative to McCain.

[East Coast Elitist]

millions of voters are losing their homes. In many states, if you lose your home, you lose your vote!!! In some states you get a 'provisional vote', but in many states you have a greater chance of winning the lottery than having your provisional vote counted.

- many of those most bitterly anti-Republican, and rightly so, are those who have lost their jobs and so their homes. But the system is effectively rigged to ensure those people lose their vote and exercise uncounted provisional ones. It is like FF, before talking medical cards of old people (the first version) took the vote from everyone losing a medical card, so as to ensure they had no power to vote against FF next time.

Then there is the farcical electronic vote system. Despite pressure from the Democrats and a campaign led by Hillary Clinton, states installed voting systems with no paper trails, even though there is overwhelming evidence of errors in recording votes, errors in counting votes, etc.

The US system is one of the least democratic on the planet.

The problem for Obama is that pollsters are polling voters, but an unknown number of those won't actually have their votes counted even if the electronic system even records their votes accurately at the start. There are polling stations where 50% of votes have been cast, but 90% of them are provisional. And who are the people likely not to have their votes counted? The poor. Blacks. Latinos. Working class people who have lost their homes, etc, the people who are most heavily pro-Obama.

Other than Michigan--where Obama quickly moved in an filed a lawsuit--where has it been suggested that people who are in foreclosure might have a problem?

As for the problems with electronic voting, don't go looking for Republican boogeymen under every machine. Most of the problems are with the technology itself, which should be completely abandoned for now. Virginia is going back to paper ballots--after the election. Once again, this isn't a Republican plot, but because there isn't time to shift the huge state system back in time for Tuesday.

The election will be close. There will be problems. But there's no reason to panic and believe there's a widespread connection between "close election" and "problems." Most states are working hard to ensure the results they hand over are accurate and fair. No one wants to be the next Florida.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Oh come now, EEE. How come nearly all the vote-flipping is from Democrat to Republican? If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

500 Florida absentee ballots thrown out:

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. --- Election officials scrutinizing absentee ballots in Duval County have rejected more than 500 ballots out of the 1,600 questionable ballots examined so far.

Most of those were rejected because they lack signatures or the signatures don't match the voter's signature on file.
Lisa Rigg was worried her signature didn't match and contacted the Supervisor of Elections office.
"It's that important to me. I want my vote to absolutely count for this election. It is very important," Rigg said.
She was right. Her absentee vote is one of those that was rejected.
"I was a little shocked," Rigg said. "But then again, my signature does not always match, from day to day. I said, 'What can I do to fix this? Can I come down and prove to you that I am who I am and I signed that ballot.'"
Unfortunately, the answer was no. Once a ballot is cast, it cannot be changed or replaced by a new ballot.

Of course it wouldn't be just a coincidence that the county is heavily Black. Oh no!