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About LinkBacksRemember that Fox are pro-Republican, which underlines the credibility of the report as they are hardly the liberal media that support Democrats. In any case i have also linked to a site above talking about the caging.Originally Posted by Kerrygold
Remember that Fox are pro-Republican, which underlines the credibility of the report as they are hardly the liberal media that support Democrats. In any case i have also linked to a site above talking about the caging.
Please don't tell me that you're using a single source of information.
The enemy of my enemy is the enemy of my enemy. There are lies, damn lies and Fine Gael confusions. "I don't understand." Alan "it's only 79 punts" Shatter
LA Times poll is pretty good for Obama
At this stage, we can declare McCain dead unlessVoters see the economy as the chief issue and Obama as the best man to handle it, according to a Times/Bloomberg poll. Obama leads in Ohio, 49% to 40%; in Florida, 50% to 43%.
cYp
- There really is a 5% undecided that will break all his way
- Osama, Saakashvili or another member of the GOP extended family helps out
- The Dow goes back above 10,000 and people feel happy
"Yawn , am I alive yet ?"
On the Rasmussen poll I mentioned earlier showing McCain more trusted than Obama on the economy, I was asked to post a link to it so here you go:
Also, a Mason-Dixon poll today has McCain only 4% behind in Pennsylvania and Obama just 4% behind in Arizona (McCain's state). Also 23% of Texans think Obama is a Muslim.McCain Trusted More on Taxes and Economy
After several weeks of John McCain’scampaign attacks on Barack Obama’s tax plan and idea of “spreading the wealth around”, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds voters trust McCain more than Obama on taxes, 47% to 45%.
Two weeks ago, Obama had a one point-advantage on the issue of taxes and a month ago, he had a three-point edge. The last time McCain had the advantage on this issue was September 14, just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers started the meltdown on Wall Street (see [COLOR=#0066cc]trends[/COLOR]).
Men favor McCain by a 51% to 43% margin when it comes to taxes, while women still trust Obama more, 48% to 43% (see [COLOR=#0066cc]crosstabs[/COLOR]).
Voters now trust Obama overall on six out of ten electoral issues tracked by Rasmussen Reports. Two weeks ago, the Democrat holding the edge on seven issues. A month ago, Obama had the advantage on every issue.
McCain also has gained ground as the candidate to trust on [COLOR=#0066cc]economic issues[/COLOR]. Forty-eight percent (48%) now trust the Republican hopeful more than the Democrat while 47% hold the opposite view. This is the first time McCain has led on the issue that has hurt his campaign since September 17. One month ago, Obama held a nine-point advantage when it came to economic issues.
The candidates are now tied on the issue of the War in Iraq, with each man trusted more than the other by 47% of voters. Earlier in the year, McCain held solid leads on the issue. However, two-weeks ago, Obama had a one-point edge. Men trust McCain more than Obama when it comes to Iraq, while women trust Obama.
Obama continues to hold solid advantages on his party’s strong points, such as education, health care and environmental issues.
A summary of these results and other key stats can be found on the [COLOR=#0066cc]By the Numbers[/COLOR] page which is updated daily.
McCain also passed Obama on Social Security for the first time since early August. Voters now trust the GOP candidate more by a 45% to 44% margin. In the last poll, Obama outperformed the Republican 46% to 43%.
McCain holds the advantage on abortion for the second straight poll. Voters trust the Republican more, 46% to 40%. Men favor McCain more by 11 percentage points, while women are fairly evenly divided, favoring McCain by a 44% to 43% margin.
Texans Confused About Obama's Religion
[COLOR=#b60b03]Texas Politics Project[/COLOR]: "When asked to identify Obama's religion, 45 percent of respondents accurately identified him as Protestant; however 23 percent erroneously identified him as Muslim."
Last edited by FutureTaoiseach; 30th October 2008 at 04:35 PM.
And a CNN poll has Obama 12 points clear in Pennsylvania. Why cherry pick FT?
CNN have to be questioned given their tendency, like the NYT/CBS ones, to give Obama larger than average leads. I trust Rasmussen the most. BTW, Fox has just come out with an Opinion Dynamics poll showing Obama leading 47-44. Unlike the Rasmussen poll today, Obama still leads on the economy 50-42, compared to 50-35 in the last OD poll. On national security, McCain leads 50-39.
Last edited by FutureTaoiseach; 30th October 2008 at 05:08 PM.
Would also seem fair to quote this from fivethirteight.com:Polls 29th Oct:
Would seem fair to say that McCain is coming back in Missouri.
A very good summary of where things stand with less than a week to go.Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.
Number two, John McCain is NOT gaining ground in the states that matter the most. The top tier of states in this election are Virginia, Colorado and Pennsylvania. There is lots of lots of polling in these states, particularly in Virgnia and Pennsylvania, and it's all coming up in roughly the same range, showing Obama leads in the high single digits (in VA and CO) or the low double digits (in PA). The second tier of states is probably Ohio, Florida and Nevada. McCain seems to be getting a bit stronger in Florida; Obama seems to be getting a bit stronger in Ohio and Nevada. McCain does seem to have halted Obama's progress in some of the third-tier states, particularly Missouri and North Carolina. On the other hand, some other third-tier states, like New Mexico and particularly New Hampshire (where Obama is getting some insane numbers lately), now appear to be off the table.
My feeling is that John McCain still needs some sort of external contingency to win the presidency. Even if some of the more conservative turnout models are correct AND even if he were to win large majorities of the undecided vote, he is probably a little bit too far behind to catch up.
Seriously FT, would you EVER cop on to yourself.
It's a fair comment. In 2000 and 2004, some Democratic Electors didn't vote for Gore/Kerry when the Electoral College met.
In terms of the popular-vote, this campaign is starting to look more like the Carter-Ford campaign in 1976. Bit by bit, Obama's lead is being shrunk to the margin-of-error. Anything could happen.
The key word here is gradually. As circumstances change and new information emerges, it is entirely reasonable for a person's position to shift. It was the long, slow grind of the Iraq war, coupled with the realisation that the justification used for the invasion was false that caused many in the US to turn against it.
But that's really not what happened in your case, FT. You did a complete 180 degree turn in a matter of days. Two weeks ago you were dismissing claims that Diebold machines might be dodgy, saying things like "I don't here pro-Obama posters complaining about victories he won in states using Diebold." You expressed the certainty - certainty, mind- that McCain would win because of his performance in the third debate, saying that the polls would narrow sharply and that McCain would move into the lead within days. But anyway America would never vote for Obama because it was, you said, a "deeply conservative" country.
What happened? Why did McCain's debate performance not affect the polls the way that you predicted? Did America stop being "deeply conservative" in the last two weeks or was your analysis of the situation overly simplistic and far too black-and-white? Would you say that your earlier interpretation of how this election would pan out (just 12 days ago) was completely wrong?
I can understand somebody gradually moving from one deeply-held belief to the centre in the light of new information, then on from there to embrace a different reality. But to move overnight from one position of certainty to its polar opposite is suspicious, especially when, Eoghan Harris-like, you have insisted at all stages that you are 100% correct. It's become laughable.
A few months ago you were saying that the PC press were going easy on Obama because he was black. Now you're saying that the print media, much of it run by GOP partisans, are either not inclined to investigate Republican dirty tricks or are just complacent about what's going on. My read of this situation is that by making a huge song and dance about Republican chicanery (which you know is highly unlikely to affect the overall result) you are hoping to distract long-time observers from your latest, and possibly biggest, flip-flop. Remember when John McCain was your avatar? I do. I'll be thinking of it next week when you're high-fiving people, telling them you know all along that Obama could do it.
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