Obama v McCain Polling

[myksav]

I do see that as significant yes. But it's not just them, but also IBD. It's also astonishing that in a poll that BOR says it coming out on Rasmussen today, 52% say they trust McCain more on the economy. Now given the leanings of Fox, this may carry a health-warning but if true, it would be worrying for Obama so late in a race about the economy, even assuming the count was fair. At the same time, bear in mind both camps already have a certain % of the votes locked up in early voting. And it's the Electoral College that matters, and looking at the state polls, they are not really reflecting the tight race in the popular vote. If the election is free and fair, I think Obama would likely win the EC unless there's a change in the coming days. I don't think an Obama sweep would be on the scale of Johnson-Goldwater but perhaps closer to Carter-Ford in the EV stakes, except with different states (Carter won all the Southern states but Virginia after all).

FT, what is BOR? An abbreviation of what?

[FutureTaoiseach]

FT, what is BOR? An abbreviation of what?

Bill O'Reilly.

[H.R. Haldeman]

Tightening schmitening.

RCP still have BHO with 259 "solid" EV's, with 52 "leaning" and 85 a "toss-up".

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

My simple maths say this:

> Even if BO losess 10% of his "solid" EVs = 234
> And even if he only wins 20% of the "toss-up" EVs = 17
> And even if he only wins 20% of the "leaning" EVs = 10
> Total = 270

And that is being pessimistic in the extreme wrt Obama's chances.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Tightening schmitening.

RCP still have BHO with 259 "solid" EV's, with 52 "leaning" and 85 a "toss-up".

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

My simple maths say this:

> Even if BO losess 10% of his "solid" EVs = 234
> And even if he only wins 20% of the "toss-up" EVs = 17
> And even if he only wins 20% of the "leaning" EVs = 10
> Total = 270

And that is being pessimistic in the extreme wrt Obama's chances.

But given the Democratic party's historical commitment to the popular-vote and abolishing the EC, it is debatable whether, if Obama won the EC but not the popular-vote (as Bush did in 2000), whether Democrat electors on the EC would be prepared to ditch this principle just to get one of their own in the WH.

[myksav]

Bill O'Reilly.

Oh, really?
When it comes out, post it.

[H.R. Haldeman]

But given the Democratic party's historical commitment to the popular-vote and abolishing the EC, it is debatable whether, if Obama won the EC but not the popular-vote (as Bush did in 2000), whether Democrat electors on the EC would be prepared to ditch this principle just to get one of their own in the WH.

lol.

Seriously.

[FutureTaoiseach]

The poll was just mentioned on Fox News now. McCain is trusted on economic policy and taxes over Obama 47-45.

[Defeated Romanticist]

FT, the American print media are far more pro-Democrat than the TV stations.

FFS, The NY Times endorsed Mondale against Reagan and what's his face against Nixon!!!

[FutureTaoiseach]

The stealing of Florida by the GOP has started, including the use of foreclosure (repossession) address-lists to disenfranchise Democrats:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist [FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2][COLOR=#0066cc]declares a voting emergency[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2] and extends early voting hours because of record turnout and [/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2][COLOR=#0066cc]widespread machine malfunctions[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2], a hodge-podge of election suppression activity has been brewing for the past week in Florida.[/SIZE][/FONT] [/FONT]

[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva]Chief among them a[/FONT][/FONT][FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva]re voters, such as Marilyn Fielding featured in[/FONT][FONT=verdana,geneva][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2][COLOR=#0066cc]this Naples Daily News[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2] story, who was forced to cast a provisional ballot because she applied for an absentee ballot in Connecticut, even though the voter says she never made such a request.[/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]Could this be the aim of the [COLOR=#0066cc]misleading McCain mailers[/COLOR] sent out in September across the country and [COLOR=#0066cc]Florida[/COLOR]?[/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]"We are receiving many, many reports from poll watchers that provisional ballots are given out much too often to our voters in Lee County," said Nancy Troy, a Democratic Party activist. "The poll watchers in Lee County are telling us it's hard to keep up with all of them."[/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]Other issues include a [COLOR=#0066cc]vigilante sheriff[/COLOR] candidate who marks the first story of GOP caging in the state; a dispute over amending registration records at the polls; and blocked (temporarily) federal poll watchers.[/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]In Glades County, it's sheriff candidate Robert Wilson who broke the ice for the GOP caging effort. But Wilson says he took it upon himself to crunch voter registration records against things such as home foreclosures to form the basis for a challenge. As the [COLOR=#0066cc]Miami Herald notes today[/COLOR], the list is almost all Democrats, "save a dead Republican or two."[/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]The dispute over provisional balloting pertains to a legal opinion in a letter by the lead attorney for the Florida Association of Supervisors of Elections. In a [COLOR=#0066cc]letter last week[/COLOR] Robert Labasky basically told every election supervisor in the state to ignore Florida Secretary of State Kurt Browning's directions for how to handle new voters unverified due to the state's controversial "no-match" law. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]Labasky said election supervisors could allow voters to amend their registration records at the polls. This just in: [COLOR=#0066cc]Broward County announced[/COLOR] it will follow Labasky's advice. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]Browning said voters have to cast a provisional ballot regardless what they could show an election judge at the polls, forcing voters to return to an election office within 48 hours. He even [/SIZE][SIZE=2][COLOR=#0066cc]threatened legal action[/COLOR][/SIZE][SIZE=2] against the election supervisor in Pinellas County who wanted to actually (bless her heart) make voting easier. The opinion by Labasky did, however, give discretion to election [/SIZE][FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva]supervisors if they chose to follow Browning's advise.[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]More than 12,000 voter registrations were "unverified," according to the [COLOR=#0066cc]St. Pete Times today[/COLOR]. The matches are done against the Social Security Administration database, which has an acknowledged error rating of 28.5 percent.[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial][FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2]Last week Browning showed a soft side in another matter when he came[/SIZE] [SIZE=2]around and decided to [/SIZE][/FONT][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2][COLOR=#0066cc]"encourage"[/COLOR][/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=georgia][FONT=verdana,geneva][SIZE=2] four county election supervisors to allow a team of federal observers at polling sites.[/SIZE][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

According to Fox, the Pew Centre is saying that in 2004, only 36% of Provisional Ballots were even counted. If PBs are issued at around 3-4%, then you can expect that might be enough to swing the state (and others) to McCain. Florida is notorious for disenfranchising African-Americans, and historically, they and Democrats are disproportionate among those use PBs. Florida has a "no match-no vote" law, under which unless the electoral-register have an exact match on your details - right down to being John Smith rather than John A Smith - you are denied your vote. They also remove people for inactivity due to not voting in the last 2 elections. I predict that unless Obama has a big lead, the GOP will hold this state.

[Kerrygold]

Jaysus FT, do you get all your US news from Faux News?