Obama v McCain Polling

[Aggressor]

Some interesting data from Rasmussen. Republicans are much less likely to take part in exit polls. What if Republicans and conservatives in general are less likely to talk to pollsters at any time?

The data suggests an ongoing challenge for Exit Polling this year. In every state but one, a majority of Democrats say they’d be very likely to take the time to fill out an Exit Poll questionnaire if asked. In every state but one, the number of Republicans willing to do the same is below 40%.

The number of Democrats who say they’re Very Likely to participate in an Exit Poll ranges from a low of 47% in Missouri to a high of 54% in Ohio. The range of Republicans that willing to take part in the Exit Poll goes from a low of 33% in Missouri to a high of 43% in Ohio.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Interesting findings from the Rasmussen swingstate polls today on early votingin Colorado and Ohio. In Colorado, Obama leads among those who have already voted 57-42, while McCain leads 11pts among those yet to vote. Overall the state supports Obama 50-46. In Ohio, those who have already voted supported Obama 62-37. In Florida, Obama leads 51-47, while he leads 48-47 in Missouri and McCain leads in North Carolina 49-48. In Virginia Obama leads 51-47.

[cyberianpan]

RCP are more reliable than electoral-vote.com, as the former got 49 states right in 2004 while the latter had Kerry winning. Arizona may be close, but if even Goldwater won it, McCain will too.

Would agree that RCP somewhat better than EV.com but still there is some movement in Arizona.

Also McCain pulling out of Minnesota now, the GOP seems to have made dumb decisions about spend.

cYp

[FutureTaoiseach]

All of today's polls. Note the tightening in New Hampshire and Colorado:

[H.R. Haldeman]

RCP have BO on 255 "solid" EV's, Slate (via pollster.com) have him on 268 "safe Dem" EV's.

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
Slate Magazine

That is an absolute shed load whichever way you cut it considering these totals don't include any EV's that are still a toss-up.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Pay close attention to Pennsylvania on Nov 4th. It is the swing state most vulnerable to a rigged count, as almost all its counties don't even have an audit-trail and are using DREs. Even Philadelphia, where Obama is supposedly leading 2-1, is using them. Only about 2 counties use DREs that have VVPAT (voter-verified paper audit trails) and about one uses optical-scanners to count paper-ballots. A cause of concern is that probably most of the optical-scanners being used next week are manufactured by Diebold/Premier Election Systems and ES+S (which is owned by Diebold). What's especially weird about this is that the official in charge of elections in Pennsylvania is actually a Democrat and yet he has also issued an edict that paper-ballots cannot be used in counties with DREs unless they break down. Local Democrats are challenging this in the courts.

[hiding behind a poster]

All of today's polls. Note the tightening in New Hampshire and Colorado:

Ah, tightening schmightening, FT - deep down you know its all over.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Ah, tightening schmightening, FT - deep down you know its all over.

We may yet see fraud on the day, leading to a rigged result. There is plenty of evidence of this. I still say McCain may win.

[tmesis2008]

We may yet see fraud on the day, leading to a rigged result. There is plenty of evidence of this. I still say McCain may win.

Okay, I know your current theory is that some states will be rigged by the more election-savvy GOP.

Can you please tell us then which states McCain will win on merit (presumably all the ones in which is either solid or leaning on RCP), and which ones you think he will win because that state is rigged and show how this will win him the 2008 election?

[gnash1970]

Okay, I know your current theory is that some states will be rigged by the more election-savvy GOP.

Can you please tell us then which states McCain will win on merit (presumably all the ones in which is either solid or leaning on RCP), and which ones you think he will win because that state is rigged and show how this will win him the 2008 election?

And please, FT, I've been waiting patiently - who are these "GOP partisans" that you say own and control the press in America? Can you name even one of them? Or did you maybe make it up?