Obama v McCain Polling

[FutureTaoiseach]

Early voting info from Nevada shows that 300,000 out of approx 1.2 million people registered to vote are expected to vote by Nov 4th. Registered Democrats taking part exceeded registered Republicans more than by 2-1 in Washoe county and nearly 2-1 in Clark county. There are currently 111,617 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, compared to a Republican lead of 4,431 in 2004. Note that party-registration doesn't tell you for certain how they voted. Nevada voted for Bush 51-49 in 2004.

Yesterday's polls:



Remember that in Pennsylvania, almost all the counting - including in Philadelphia where polls have Obama leading 2-1 - is by touchscreen voting-machines with no audit trail and no VVPR (Voter Verified Paper Record). Is that why the Republicans are pinning their hopes on that state.

[jfk2008]

Early voting info from Nevada shows that 300,000 out of approx 1.2 million people registered to vote are expected to vote by Nov 4th. Registered Democrats taking part exceeded registered Republicans more than by 2-1 in Washoe county and nearly 2-1 in Clark county. There are currently 111,617 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, compared to a Republican lead of 4,431 in 2004. Note that party-registration doesn't tell you for certain how they voted. Nevada voted for Bush 51-49 in 2004.

Yesterday's polls:



Remember that in Pennsylvania, almost all the counting - including in Philadelphia where polls have Obama leading 2-1 - is by touchscreen voting-machines with no audit trail and no VVPR (Voter Verified Paper Record). Is that why the Republicans are pinning their hopes on that state.

Or maybe you're pinning your hopes on that state.

CBS News has reported that Hispanic voters in western states like Nevada, Colorada and New Mexico, who supported Bush in 04, are now overwhelmingly breaking for Obama rather than McCain. See near the end of this clip:

Obama Back On Campaign Trail Video - CBSNews.com

[jfk2008]

Arizona President McCain 44-40 Obama Myers Research [D]
Is McCain going to pull an Al Gore and lose his home state?

President McCain?

Maybe he'll get to be president of his local HOA one day.

[FutureTaoiseach]

Or maybe you're pinning your hopes on that state.

CBS News has reported that Hispanic voters in western states like Nevada, Colorada and New Mexico, who supported Bush in 04, are now overwhelmingly breaking for Obama rather than McCain. See near the end of this clip:

Obama Back On Campaign Trail Video - CBSNews.com

It won't matter who they support if the election is rigged, which I firmly believe it will be, based on my research. In the 3,000 American counties, most are using either electronic voting or electronic counting of paper ballots. This industry is dominated by companies tied to the Bush admin, including Diebold and ES+S (the company at the heart of the vote-flipping phenomenon in West Virginia and now Tennessee and Texas). In fact it turns out that the former VP of Diebold, Jeff Dean, was previously convicted on 23 felonies before being kept as a consultant by Diebold, and in 2004, [FONT=Arial]the Urosevich brothers, Bob and Todd, were President and VP of Diebold and ES+S, respectively. It now emerges that even the optical-scanners counting paper-ballots, provided mostly by Diebold and ES+S, can be rigged too. I am increasingly sure an upset will occur on Nov 4th, and while that will make me 400-500 richer from betting on McCain, it will also cause me contempt for the Mugabe-style election that is about to be rigged by the Jesus-freaks of the GOP in what was once the most democratic country on earth. [/FONT]

[cyberianpan]

Karl Rove has crunched some numbers:

Fox
Based on nationwide polling, the Real Clear Politics average of electoral votes gives Obama 306 electoral votes while McCain has 157 votes. 75 electoral votes are listed as toss-ups.
Former Deputy White House Chief of Staff Karl Rove, who runs his own analysis and lists Obama with 317 electoral votes, McCain with 157 and 64 toss-ups, said McCain has a very difficult task ahead of him.
"He's got to win all of the toss-up states, 64 electoral votes, all the yellow-shaded states on the map. Then he needs to strip away Ohio and Indiana with 31 electoral votes to get him to 252. And then he needs to either win Colorado and Virginia, which gets him to 274, or win one of them plus Pennsylvania, which would get him to 282 or 286. It's a steep uphill climb," Rove told "FOX News Sunday."

I remain suspicious of Real Clear Politics, but news here is that even Rove is showing Obama as way ahead... will the race tighten to under 5 points by Wed?

Even then what states:

RCP McCain's Miserable Map

To appreciate the dominant position Obama currently holds in the Electoral College, consider the following map. I've taken the 2004 Electoral College results, and colored "gray" all the red states that are in play this year.


Obama has locked up every Kerry state from 2004, which gives him a starting point of 252 Electoral votes.
So of the 12 states currently in play which total 129 electoral votes, Obama needs to pick up only an additional 18 electoral votes to get to 270. He can do that by winning Ohio, Florida, or any combination of the other states. Even more to the point: Obama leads in the polls in 10 out of 12 of these states, Montana and North Dakota being the only exceptions.
Obama's leads in the RCP Averages in these ten states rank as follows: Iowa +12.2, New Mexico +8.4, Virginia +7.0, Colorado +6.5, Ohio +6.1, Nevada +3.3, Missouri +2.7, Florida +2.2, North Carolina +1.0, and Indiana +0.5.
As has been noted, McCain's most likely route to 270 is an inside straight that wins every one of these states but Iowa and New Mexico for a 274-264 win:
[continued]

No path to victory for McCain is obvious yet...

cYp

[hiding behind a poster]

It won't matter who they support if the election is rigged, which I firmly believe it will be, based on my research. In the 3,000 American counties, most are using either electronic voting or electronic counting of paper ballots. This industry is dominated by companies tied to the Bush admin, including Diebold and ES+S (the company at the heart of the vote-flipping phenomenon in West Virginia and now Tennessee and Texas). In fact it turns out that the former VP of Diebold, Jeff Dean, was previously convicted on 23 felonies before being kept as a consultant by Diebold, and in 2004, [FONT=Arial]the Urosevich brothers, Bob and Todd, were President and VP of Diebold and ES+S, respectively. It now emerges that even the optical-scanners counting paper-ballots, provided mostly by Diebold and ES+S, can be rigged too. I am increasingly sure an upset will occur on Nov 4th, and while that will make me 400-500 richer from betting on McCain, it will also cause me contempt for the Mugabe-style election that is about to be rigged by the Jesus-freaks of the GOP in what was once the most democratic country on earth. [/FONT]

I've told you already, FT - they're not gonna try and rig a blowout. If you're gonna rig elections, you rig tight ones, where you can plausibly get away with it.

[Clareman]

Another poll Zimmerman this time has Obama within margin of error in Arizona. McCain 44-42 Obama. There is an independent poll due out there on Tuesday.
If election were held in next couple of days Obama could potentially hit 400 electoral votes.

[stannis]

If election were held in next couple of days Obama could potentially hit 400 electoral votes.

Really? What are you basing that on? While it's clear that The One is well ahead of McCain, 400 votes seems like a very long shot.

[Vega1447]

Really? What are you basing that on? While it's clear that The One is well ahead of McCain, 400 votes seems like a very long shot.

If Obama is the One does that mean McCain is the Zero?

[Clareman]

I don't think it will happen but if Obama takes Indiana, ND, Montana, Georgia and Arizona and there is a wave election. This could happen particularly if the networks call Virginia and North Carolina for Obama shortly after 7pm on election night and it is clear Obama has won overall then Republicans in the Midwest and West might well decide to stay home and drown their sorrows hence Obama takes the likes of Arizona and Montana.