Only 251 Delegates left after May 6th

[mairteenpak]

If Hillary is behind by 150 delegates by the end of May 6th its all over
She would need to do better than 80% to win

Its all over

[riker1969]

Im not sure if it is. What about the Super Delegates? I know people say they could hardly reject the choice of the voters but guess what-thats why they are there! They only came into existence in the 1980s as a safety measure if the party faithful picked someone who could not win in the General Election. Now it does seem many of them have picked for Obama but there is no way of knowing for sure what way they will vote.

Then again what do I know-I didnt think it possible for a black man to be this close to the nomination given race relations in the USA. :P

[mairteenpak]

As we get to the end of the game the 150 delegate lead becomes unasailable

[Thac0man]

As we get to the end of the game the 150 delegate leed becomes unasailable

But as a percentage, it also gets smaller.

[sandar]

The supers have been breakling for Obama recently, he could well win in that regard as well

[twtone]

Then again what do I know-I didnt think it possible for a black man to be this close to the nomination given race relations in the USA. :P

What is the source of your "expertise" on race relations in the US? Did you ever live there? Or did you just read a couple of John Grisham novels?

As to the election, I expect Obama to win big in North Carolina and that will effectively finish it off.

[riker1969]

Then again what do I know-I didnt think it possible for a black man to be this close to the nomination given race relations in the USA. :P

What is the source of your "expertise" on race relations in the US? Did you ever live there? Or did you just read a couple of John Grisham novels?

As to the election, I expect Obama to win big in North Carolina and that will effectively finish it off.

I never claimed to be an expert and yes I did live there for 8 years . I still have family there. I wouldnt read John Grisham but you obviously do! Broaden your horizons!

[NotDevsSon]

If Hillary is behind by 150 delegates by the end of May 6th its all over
She would need to do better than 80% to win

Its all over

Wrong on so many counts.

1. What you mean by 'delegates' is 'pledged delegates' and pledged delegates have the freedom to vote for the person they were elected to support, or break ranks and vote for someone else. That often happens.

2. There are 700 super delegates who have to vote also.

3. There is a likely court case over whether to accept the Michigan and Florida delegates. If Florida is not seated, the state can be written off in November, and with that the Democrats can kiss goodbye to the presidency, especially if Obama is the candidate and so McCain cleans up on Hispanics and with them California and Texas. In addition, if Florida is not seated under state law doners can demand their money back from the national party. As that amounts to $60 million and the national party cannot afford to give it back on the eve of an election, they effectively have no choice but to seat Florida (and so also Florida) if they don't want to be broke and unable nationally to mount a campaign.

4. There is a growing conviction among the Democratic leadership that Obama is dead in the water as a potential White House winner. The Pennsylvania result was dreadful for him. He got 90% of the Black vote. That masked how bad he did under every other category. If a potential nominee cannot capture Catholics, women, blue collar workers and Hispanics they are unelectable. Pennsylvania showed that yet again Obama was carried by Black votes. If it wasn't for the block Black vote, Clinton would be ahead by a considerable margin now. If the Dems used the GOP electoral system, she would have had the nomination by a landslide. The reality is beginning to sink in, which is why four planned endorsements this week didn't go ahead - all four got cold feet looking at the Pennsylvania stats. Clinton had made specific claims about Obama's appeal some weeks ago. They were dismissed but some senior neutrals in the party did some research and found her argument had some validity. What happened in Pennsylvania showed the argument stacked up - Obama is extremely weak as a candidate in terms of covering key bases. potentially the weakest candidate in base support since Mondale.

[hiding behind a poster]

4. There is a growing conviction among the Democratic leadership that Obama is dead in the water as a potential White House winner. The Pennsylvania result was dreadful for him. He got 90% of the Black vote. That masked how bad he did under every other category. If a potential nominee cannot capture Catholics, women, blue collar workers and Hispanics they are unelectable.

I'm really unsure about that argument, NDS. What people have to remember is that just because Clinton beat Obama among Catholics, Women, Blue Collar workers and Hispanics, it does NOT automatically follow that those groups will also lean towards McCain over Obama, should that be the choice put to them. At this point there is no evidence to suggest that. It also has to be remembered that such groups are serious bedrocks of the Democratic party, and as such Clinton has a big advantage over Obama AMONGST THOSE MEMBERS, by virtue of having been at or near the top of the party for the last 16 years, being married to the last Democrat president, etc etc. As such, a great residual loyalty has been built up by the Democrat core vote to the Clinton name - but these voters are CORE voters - they will vote Democrat in November, regardless of who the candidate is, unless Obama does something to seriously, seriously, p*ss them off. Hence you have Obama's steering clear of any obvious negativity towards Clinton.

One other point, not strictly related to this, but worth mentioning anyway - some are now saying that all the exposing of Obama's negatives by Clinton this early could actually work in Obama's favour if he becomes the nominee. Because it leaves McCain with less mud to throw. Stories like the Rev Wright story would've been manna from heaven for the GOP - but they can no longer introduce that story themselves now, and generate any kind of shock from it.

[Limerick Lad]

4. There is a growing conviction among the Democratic leadership that Obama is dead in the water as a potential White House winner. The Pennsylvania result was dreadful for him. He got 90% of the Black vote. That masked how bad he did under every other category. If a potential nominee cannot capture Catholics, women, blue collar workers and Hispanics they are unelectable.

I'm really unsure about that argument, NDS. What people have to remember is that just because Clinton beat Obama among Catholics, Women, Blue Collar workers and Hispanics, it does NOT automatically follow that those groups will also lean towards McCain over Obama, should that be the choice put to them. At this point there is no evidence to suggest that. It also has to be remembered that such groups are serious bedrocks of the Democratic party, and as such Clinton has a big advantage over Obama AMONGST THOSE MEMBERS, by virtue of having been at or near the top of the party for the last 16 years, being married to the last Democrat president, etc etc. As such, a great residual loyalty has been built up by the Democrat core vote to the Clinton name - but these voters are CORE voters - they will vote Democrat in November, regardless of who the candidate is, unless Obama does something to seriously, seriously, p*ss them off. Hence you have Obama's steering clear of any obvious negativity towards Clinton.

One other point, not strictly related to this, but worth mentioning anyway - some are now saying that all the exposing of Obama's negatives by Clinton this early could actually work in Obama's favour if he becomes the nominee. Because it leaves McCain with less mud to throw. Stories like the Rev Wright story would've been manna from heaven for the GOP - but they can no longer introduce that story themselves now, and generate any kind of shock from it.

A lot of those supposedly core Democrats voted Republican when Regan stood for the Presidency, hence the term "Regan Democrats". These older, more conservative voters will see some appeal in McCain if their favoured candidate Clinton isn't the Candidate.