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Thread: Ohio Texas Dem Predictions

  1. #1
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    Ohio Texas Dem Predictions

    I'll start and go for Clinton to get back into the race by winning both states.
    Ohio:
    Clinton %52
    Obama %46

    Texas:
    Clinton %50
    Obama %47

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Regular JCSkinner's Avatar
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    God bless optimism. I reckon she'll take Ohio but will lose Texas, handing Obama the nomination.

    Edit: We have to offer numbers? Okay

    Ohio: Clinton 53, Obama 44.
    Texas: Clinton 47, Obama 50.
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  3. #3
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    Ohio % Clinton 57 Obama 43

    Texas % Clinton 51 Obama 48

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Regular Defeated Romanticist's Avatar
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    I have a feeling Clinton will pull it out.

    Ohio:
    Clinton=60
    Obama=37

    Texas:
    Clinton=55
    Obama=43
    She'll win Rhode Island too.
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  5. #5
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    Ohio:
    Obama %62
    Clinton %38

    Texas:
    Obama %57
    Clinton %43

  6. #6
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    Im hoping for another 'no clear winner' after tonight.

    Lets drag this one out.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Regular The Trinity Politick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Defeated Romanticist
    I have a feeling Clinton will pull it out.

    Ohio:
    Clinton=60
    Obama=37

    Texas:
    Clinton=55
    Obama=43
    She'll win Rhode Island too.
    There is a shift to Hillary the past few days. I suspect she win obviously win Ohio and Rhode Island. Texas is tight. If it isn't and one of them wins by more than 5%:

    For Clinton- two words, momentum and comeback
    For Obama- one word- bollocks

    Nothing is set in stone. I don't see this Resko trial helping Obama cruise to victory in later states. If Clinton can win big, or big-ish, then who knows
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  8. #8
    Politics.ie Regular The Trinity Politick's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hedger
    Ohio:
    Obama %62
    Clinton %38

    Texas:
    Obama %57
    Clinton %43
    Theres an interesting Ohio prediction there....
    “If you elect a matinee idol mayor, you’re going to have a musical comedy administration.” -Robert Moses

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    How is winning defined? If you win the popular vote in Texas, you can still lose in delegates. The Dem rules allow you to vote twice - first in the primary and then again in a caucus held after polls close. They also weight the votes in different countries according to what % voted for the Dems in Senate and state legislative elections. This almost guarantees that if its close, Obama will win the most delegates by favouring places like Houston and Dallas with heavy African-American populations. I would also point out a wildcard in today's primary, namely an ice-storm in Northern Ohio which could depress turnout there and close many polling-stations according to Foxnews.

    At present I'm forecasting it as follows:

    Ohio: Clinton 55-45
    Texas: Obama 51-49

  10. #10
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    John Zogby said on CNN last night that there is a big swing towards Hillary in recent days, due to Rezko, and Clinton's effective highlighting of Obama's incompetence on foreign affairs/national security.

    I reckon she'll take Ohio handily enough, and win Texas by a 2-3% margin

    Some of the predicitons above are wildly optimistic. 60% v 38% ?? What are you guys basing this on?

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