Ohio Texas Dem Predictions

[Squire Allworthy]

TX (C) 5%
Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

If it stays anything like this Clinton will have survived and closed the gap a little. Much depends how the press start to react to Obama on the various news stories coming up. Rezko not good; NAFTA folly and now a few loses.

[Squire Allworthy]

CNN declaring Texas Primary for Clinton

TX (C) 13%
Obama 54%
Clinton 46%

[TradCat]

If the delegate count is very tight and if the super-delegates decide that they want Hillary to win they don't have to go against the voters. They just have to support the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations

[Tmesis]

If the delegate count is very tight and if the super-delegates decide that they want Hillary to win they don't have to go against the voters. They just have to support the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations

Circular logic here.

[Anorakphobia]

think ure bein a tad optimistic there KN.
she looks goosed to me in texas and let's face it that's endgame for her.

Dan not for the 1st time spotted that Huckerbee would poll v strong in Tex and he has.

All yours as I have an early start as usual.
Nite to all enjoy.

Ol Anarok is in for a rude awakening in the morning .

Indeed

He will probably start shaking his radio to get it working as it must be broken if it is telling him that Hillary won in Texas!

Lads

Will ye cool down.
Delegates, delegates delegates.....
In yer rush to gloat ye are missing the big picture which hasn't materially changed (and I'm not the one holding Clinton at 4/6, she kept the life support machine turned on KN, hardly a reason to do a jig).

I am not an Obama fan, when are ye going to get that but I dislike him far less than Clinton.
This is great fun and we now should see if Obama is as vacuous as some on here believe.

[Silvio Dante]

So Anorak. How much money did you lose following the Bettng exchanges and ignoring the good people of the Democratic Party who stuck by their girl...

[BaudrillardNeverExisted]

If the delegate count is very tight and if the super-delegates decide that they want Hillary to win they don't have to go against the voters. They just have to support the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations

This is a critical point which seems to be overlooked quite often. Hillary won big in these states and would likely do so again if there was to be a re-run (MI is industrial like OH, FL is heavy with older voters). By giving the nomination to Hillary, the superdelegates may not necessarily be going against the will of the people. One thing is certain, by not counting MI and FL, the democrats are practically giving away two swing-states in November.

Does anyone know the delegate totals if MI and FL were to be included?

[Anorakphobia]

So Anorak. How much money did you lose following the Bettng exchanges and ignoring the good people of the Democratic Party who stuck by their girl...

Very little in fact, I'd guess about the equivalent of 3 weeks of your allowance.

[Tmesis]

If the delegate count is very tight and if the super-delegates decide that they want Hillary to win they don't have to go against the voters. They just have to support the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations

This is a critical point which seems to be overlooked quite often. Hillary won big in these states and would likely do so again if there was to be a re-run (MI is industrial like OH, FL is heavy with older voters). By giving the nomination to Hillary, the superdelegates may not necessarily be going against the will of the people. One thing is certain, by not counting MI and FL, the democrats are practically giving away two swing-states in November.

Does anyone know the delegate totals if MI and FL were to be included?

The states were not in play and they won't be put back in play. Obama knew that they weren't in play and didn't campaign there. It would be grossly unfair to add them in now just to suit one candidate.

[Limerick Lad]

If the delegate count is very tight and if the super-delegates decide that they want Hillary to win they don't have to go against the voters. They just have to support the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations

This is a critical point which seems to be overlooked quite often. Hillary won big in these states and would likely do so again if there was to be a re-run (MI is industrial like OH, FL is heavy with older voters). By giving the nomination to Hillary, the superdelegates may not necessarily be going against the will of the people. One thing is certain, by not counting MI and FL, the democrats are practically giving away two swing-states in November.

Does anyone know the delegate totals if MI and FL were to be included?

From AP excluding MI and FL

Obama 1187(pledged) 196(super) 1383(total)
Clinton 1035(pledged) 240(super) 1275(total)

From AP including MI and FL

Clinton 1213(pledged) 255(super) 1468(total)
Obama 1254(pledged) 201(super) 1455(total)

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02 ... acker.html

Obama's 40+ pledged delegate lead much more assailable for Clinton if FL and MI included given that there are still well over 1,000 pledged delegates to play for.

The states were not in play and they won't be put back in play. Obama knew that they weren't in play and didn't campaign there. It would be grossly unfair to add them in now just to suit one candidate.

Both candidates stuck to the agreement not to campaign in both states but Obama did run his national campaign TV ads in Florida in the run up to it's primary.