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  1. #81
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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  2. #82
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  3. #83
    valamhic valamhic is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Those who love conspiracy theories may like this one, my own personal deduction.

    It is clear from Trump's posturing and foreign policy visits that he loves these countries above all others - Russia and Saudi Arabia, a surrogate for a plethora of gulf states. With Russia as a "grey area", the fact is that if Cruz, Rubio or Bush had won the Presidency, their policy in relation to fossil fuel would not be much different.

    Both Russia and Saudi Arabia are brutal authoritarian regimes, enough to provoke disgust among most, but they all have something else in common - oil, or more accurately fossil fuel. Both are petro-states with a command of the world's greatest natural resource.

    OTOH, other US allies from the Cold War era, are fossil fuel consumers rather than producers, and this are less important in Trumptopia.

    So, let us say that a wealthy and powerful elite have decided that command of the world's oil and gas resources is the key to global power in the 21st century and have elected Trump to make sure command of those resources are kept in the "right" (our) hands?

    An alliance of petro-states with command of 75% of fossil fuel resources could pretty much dominate the planet. It is going to take decades for alternative sources to be sufficiently available to the displace what are now "traditional" fuel sources. They pollute and alter the climate, but if you are wealthy enough, you probably would not consider that a problem.

    At worst, there is a "window" in which fossil fuels are extremely important - the next generation of alternative power sources will have be made with energy generated by fossil fuels. In that window, you can make a pile of money.

    So forget about the "clash of civilisations" and "terrorism" (just a word to throw that those who stand in your way): follow the fossil fuel. Oh, terrorists do exist, but remember both Saudi Arabia and Russia funded a lot of them.

    But why Iran as an enemy? There are complications over Israel, which has influence in Washington, and of course Saudi Arabia see Iran as its main rival. So the Mullah's are not at the Top Table - yet. They could make it via Russia, which is there ally, and a brokered Israel-Palestine agreement.

    Outside the Pale, as we saw, are the 6 states left G7 states and the Paris Accord, along with China, and the majority of the world's states, who signed up to an Agreement that virtually guaranteed the death of fossil fuel as an industry, committed the world to leaving most of its fossil fuel reserves in the ground. An Agreement that would strand $trillions in assets of Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA.

    So when Trump withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement, I expect the petro-states to follow. Not only that, they will make a strong attempt to destroy the Accord completely. Even if they stay the agreement, they can still destroy it from the inside. Time will tell.

    So I am putting it out there as the conspiracy theory du jour. An interesting one to watch over the coming months and years.

    PS Just off on a a 6-week vacation, where I intend to not follow news or sports. Ok, maybe a little.
    The most brutal state in the world is China. It leaves girl babies to die of hunger and thirst. Can't get mush more brutal than that.

    There is no alternative to fossil fuel except nuclear.
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  4. #84
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by owedtojoy View Post
    Those who love conspiracy theories may like this one, my own personal deduction.

    It is clear from Trump's posturing and foreign policy visits that he loves these countries above all others - Russia and Saudi Arabia, a surrogate for a plethora of gulf states. With Russia as a "grey area", the fact is that if Cruz, Rubio or Bush had won the Presidency, their policy in relation to fossil fuel would not be much different.

    Both Russia and Saudi Arabia are brutal authoritarian regimes, enough to provoke disgust among most, but they all have something else in common - oil, or more accurately fossil fuel. Both are petro-states with a command of the world's greatest natural resource.

    OTOH, other US allies from the Cold War era, are fossil fuel consumers rather than producers, and this are less important in Trumptopia.

    So, let us say that a wealthy and powerful elite have decided that command of the world's oil and gas resources is the key to global power in the 21st century and have elected Trump to make sure command of those resources are kept in the "right" (our) hands?

    An alliance of petro-states with command of 75% of fossil fuel resources could pretty much dominate the planet. It is going to take decades for alternative sources to be sufficiently available to the displace what are now "traditional" fuel sources. They pollute and alter the climate, but if you are wealthy enough, you probably would not consider that a problem.

    At worst, there is a "window" in which fossil fuels are extremely important - the next generation of alternative power sources will have be made with energy generated by fossil fuels. In that window, you can make a pile of money.

    So forget about the "clash of civilisations" and "terrorism" (just a word to throw that those who stand in your way): follow the fossil fuel. Oh, terrorists do exist, but remember both Saudi Arabia and Russia funded a lot of them.

    But why Iran as an enemy? There are complications over Israel, which has influence in Washington, and of course Saudi Arabia see Iran as its main rival. So the Mullah's are not at the Top Table - yet. They could make it via Russia, which is there ally, and a brokered Israel-Palestine agreement.

    Outside the Pale, as we saw, are the 6 states left G7 states and the Paris Accord, along with China, and the majority of the world's states, who signed up to an Agreement that virtually guaranteed the death of fossil fuel as an industry, committed the world to leaving most of its fossil fuel reserves in the ground. An Agreement that would strand $trillions in assets of Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA.

    So when Trump withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement, I expect the petro-states to follow. Not only that, they will make a strong attempt to destroy the Accord completely. Even if they stay the agreement, they can still destroy it from the inside. Time will tell.

    So I am putting it out there as the conspiracy theory du jour. An interesting one to watch over the coming months and years.

    PS Just off on a a 6-week vacation, where I intend to not follow news or sports. Ok, maybe a little.
    Wrote the above 6 months ago. Contrary to what I expected, no other state pulled out of the Paris Accord, or has not done so yet.

    Here is a book that agrees with some of the points above - that the coming decade is all about the US dominating a scarce resource, or a resource that is about to become unusable in decades - fossil fuel, especially gas and oil.

    If Trump's plan works out, then the US will be the major petro-state on the face of the earth, dominating world production as it has not since the 1930s. There will be a huge cost in environmental damage, to the climate and to the wholesale corruption of the American political system, but Trump and his backers regard that as a price worth paying.

    "Donald Trump and his administration of climate-change deniers are quite literally living in the wrong century. The militarization of energy policy at this late date and the lodging of fossil fuels at the heart of national security policy may seem appealing to them, but it’s an approach that’s obviously doomed. On arrival, it is, in fact, already the definition of obsolescence."

    https://www.juancole.com/2018/02/tru...-dominate.html
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