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  1. #1
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Countdown to midterms

    He Congressional midterm elections are in November 2018. Will history repeat itself with the usual losses for the ruling party?

    Some straws in the wind this year with 6 special elections to fill vacant House seats. None have yet flipped red to blue, but in all but one of those held this year, the Dem vote was way up. In one blue State the Dem vote was 30% higher than Hillary's vote.

    Particularly interesting will be GA-6 which was won by Trump by 1% but by now Health Secretary Tom Price with around 61%.
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  2. #2
    odie1kanobe odie1kanobe is offline

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    Despite what FakeNews media is saying Trump is popular, they will continue to abuse but MSM has lost the voters in small town America.

    In 2018 I do not see Democrats flipping many House seats, likely they will win some but not enough to change it.

    Additionally no chance of Senate flipping.
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  3. #3
    NYCKY NYCKY is online now
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    The incumbent party in the White House typically loses seats in the House and Senate in the midterm elections.

    It has only happened three times that they haven't, the most recent one in 2002 when Bush was President and it was just over a year after 9/11. The second one was in 1998 when voters felt that the GOP had over reached on the impeachment of Clinton although the Dems stayed even in the Senate that year. The first time was 1934 in Roosevelts first term and in the middle of the great depression.

    The GOP is probably near their peak of what they could win in the House now so they should lose some seats. Right now the GOP has a 19 seat majority but that excludes four vacancies from Cabinet appointments. That number should go up a bit when the by-elections are held. If there is something of a wave, then the House could be lost but it would take a wave.

    The Senate however is looking like an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats. They have 25 seats compared to the GOPs 8 seats.

    The GOP are defending seats in Arizona, Nebraska, Nevada, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. I don't know where the Dems will pull three seats out of that lot as well as hold their own 25. Arizona maybe, Nevada perhaps, but Heller won election in Nevada in 2012 even as Obama carried the state.

    The Dems have five very imperiled incumbents in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia. Trump won some of these states by 30-40 points. Manchin in West Virginia has a huge personal vote and has been amenable to Trumps agenda but the others got really lucky in 2012 often against bad opponents like McCaskill in Missouri against Todd Akin and Joe Donnelly against Richard Mourdock in Indiana and their comments about abortion and gifts from God. Some of these Dems like McCaskill could get primary challenges from the left making it even more difficult to win in the General election.

    There are also five other Democrats running in state won by Trump, albeit more narrowly, Florida, Michigan,Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

    It's still very early days 20 months is a long time in politics but talk of filibuster proof majority is very premature but the GOP should pick up some seats making it easier to hold the majority in 2020.
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  4. #4
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Schwarzenegger mulling Senate run: report | TheHill

    (As an Independent or Third Party this time).
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  5. #5
    comet comet is offline

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    Who cares, same old - same old, one eejit replacing an idiot.
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  6. #6
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Opinion Savvy poll has Ossoff (D) ahead in first and second round against GOP candidates except Judson Hill in the Georgia 6th District special election poll. Interesting Trump approval rating in the district is +7 over the +1 margin he won the district by - but far behind Tom Price's 61-38 win. First round is in April.

    Opinion Savvy joins other polls in finding Ossoff leading the eighteen candidate primary pack with 40%, mainly thanks to near-unity of Democratic voters. Republicans meanwhile remain divided, and that may be impacting the runoff hypotheticals tested. In their latest release, they find Ossoff edging Karen Handel 42.4% to 41%, Bob Gray 44.3% to 42.3%, trailing Judson Hill narrowly 44.2% to Hill’s 44.6%, and besting Dan Moody 45.8% to 43.5%. The upside for Republicans: they will likely consolidate their support post-primary, and President Trump enjoys a larger favorability rating there (+7) than his win margin in the district last fall (+1)
    The Montana special election in May for Ryan Zinke's former seat also looking shaky, with Quist (D) ahead of Gianforte (R) 48-41 in a Google Consumer Surveys poll. Quist supports single payer health insurance and is pro choice. Montana has voted Republican since 1996 but has had Democratic governors since 2004 and a tradition of electing moderate Democrats to the Senate.
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 25th March 2017 at 11:00 AM.
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  7. #7
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Dem NJ Senator charged with corruption offences.
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  8. #8
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    We have some early voter data for #GA06 special election. Graph here of who is voting. Dems tend to vote early. It's round 1 of two round race. GOP problem is too many candidates splitting vote.

    http://twitter.com/ElectProject/stat...83441588174848

    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 28th March 2017 at 05:01 PM.
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  9. #9
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Mad to be talking about the next election already, but the US election cycle is pretty much non-stop. The following are the closest House seats in 2016, i.e within a margin of 10% or so:-

    AL-2:- 55/45 GOP
    AZ-1:- 51/43 Dem
    AZ-2:- 57/43 GOP
    CA-7:- 50/49 Dem
    CA-10:- 52/47 GOP
    CA-25:- 54/46 GOP
    CA-49: 51/49 GOP
    CO-6:- 51/42 GOP
    Fl-7:- 52/48 Dem (gain)
    Fl-13:-52/48 Dem(gain)
    Fl-18:-54/43 GOP(gain)
    FL-27:-55/45 GOP
    IL-10:-52/48 Dem(gain)
    IA-1:- 54/46 GOP
    IA-2:- 54/46 Dem
    KS-3:- 51/41 GOP
    ME-2:- 55/45 GOP
    MA-1:- 50/49 Dem
    MA-2:- 47/45 GOP
    MA-7:- 53/47 Dem
    MA-8:- 51/49 Dem
    NE-2:-49/47 GOP (gain)
    NA-3:- 47/46 Dem (gain)
    NA-4:- 48/44 Dem (gain)
    NH-1:- 44/43 Dem gain
    NH-2:-50/45 Dem
    NJ-5:- 50/47 Dem gain
    NJ-7:- 54/43 GOP
    NY-3:- 52/48 Dem
    NY-18:- 55/45 Dem
    NY-19:- 55/45 GOP
    NY-22:- 47/40 GOP
    NC-13:- 56/44 GOP gain
    OR-5:- 53/43 Dem
    PA-8:- 54/46 GOP
    PA-16:- 53/43 GOP
    PA-17:-54/46 Dem
    TX-7:- 56/44 GOP
    TX-23:- 48/47 GOP
    UT-4:- 53/42 GOP
    VA-4:- 57/43 Dem gain
    VA-10:- 53/47 GOP

    Short of byelection gains, the Dems need 24 for a majority, so they would need to gain literally every single one of their targets above, plus a couple more, and avoid dropping any.

    The Senate has only 2 potential Dem gains (Nevada and Arizona) versus up to 10 possible GOP gains.

    So it's hard to see the Dems taking Congress on current figures, but if things continue to go south for Trump, who knows what might happen.
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  10. #10
    Accidental sock Accidental sock is offline
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    Counting down already?

    CNN haven't even started a clock yet?

    I, like many polito-nerds here, love an election......but this malarky is just getting weird.
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