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  1. #21
    NYCKY NYCKY is offline
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    Montana has a strong libertarian streak like most of the frontier states. Gary Johnson performed respectably here in 2016, Clinton won the state in 92 and even Obama came very close in 2008. Until 2014 the state had two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor, that changed when the GOP picked up a Senate seat in 2014.

    It's not inconceivable that the Democrats could pick up a House seat here, especially with a good candidate.


    McConnell wasn't happy that Zinke was chosen as Trumps Interior Secretary as he viewed Zinke as a likely candidate for the Senate seat held by Democrat Jon Tester. Of course Tester supported Zinke's nomination. Nothing like getting rid of a potential opponent, in the national interest of course.
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  2. #22
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    The Kansas special election is tomorrow and the first round of the Georgia one is Tuesday week.
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  3. #23
    O'Sullivan Bere O'Sullivan Bere is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCKY View Post
    Montana has a strong libertarian streak like most of the frontier states. Gary Johnson performed respectably here in 2016, Clinton won the state in 92 and even Obama came very close in 2008. Until 2014 the state had two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor, that changed when the GOP picked up a Senate seat in 2014.

    It's not inconceivable that the Democrats could pick up a House seat here, especially with a good candidate.


    McConnell wasn't happy that Zinke was chosen as Trumps Interior Secretary as he viewed Zinke as a likely candidate for the Senate seat held by Democrat Jon Tester. Of course Tester supported Zinke's nomination. Nothing like getting rid of a potential opponent, in the national interest of course.
    LOL...yeah, they're men (and women) of the people when conflicts like that occur, aren't they?
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  4. #24
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Huffpost have some graphs on how special-elections (by-elections) so far have been going compared to the Clinton/Trump vote last November. Includes many state legislature special elections. Helps get idea of whether theres a swing against Republicans. My impression from below is that the Trump/Clinton voten shares look a lot like the special election vote shares - which are sometimes very different from the case last November eg Tom Price in Georgia 6th district last November (who later resigned to become HHS Secretary) won 61% of the vote but Trump only vote by 1% and the 2nd round polls there are around 42-43 each.



    Virginia State Senate District 9 - ELECTION DATE: JANUARY 10, 2017



    Virginia State Senate District 22 - ELECTION DATE: JANUARY 10, 2017



    Virginia House of Delegates District 85 - ELECTION DATE: JANUARY 10, 2017



    Virginia House of Delegates District 71 - ELECTION DATE: FEBRUARY 7, 2017



    Iowa Senate District 45 - ELECTION DATE: DECEMBER 21, 2017



    Iowa House of Representatives District 89 - ELECTION DATE: JANUARY 31, 2017



    Minnesota House of Representatives District 32B - ELECTION DATE: FEBRUARY 14, 2017



    Delaware State Senate District 10 - ELECTION DATE: FEBRUARY 25, 2017



    Connecticut State Senate District 2 - ELECTION DATE: FEBRUARY 28, 2017



    Connecticut State Senate District 32 - ELECTION DATE: FEBRUARY 28, 2017



    Connecticut House of Representatives District 115 - ELECTION DATE: FEBRUARY 28, 2017



    Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 197 - ELECTION DATE: MARCH 21, 2017



    Louisiana House of Representatives District 8 - ELECTION DATE: MARCH 25, 2017



    Louisiana House of Representatives District 42 - ELECTION DATE: MARCH 25, 2017



    Louisiana House of Representatives District 92 - ELECTION DATE: MARCH 25, 2017

    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 11th April 2017 at 06:48 AM.
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  5. #25
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    GOP sounding more confident about Kansas 4th District Special Election which is happening today. GOP sources previously thought it was close. Trump won the district by 30%, but yesterday rumours of internal GOP poll putting it within 1% sparked fears/hopes it could flip. The only poll was in March and had over 20% GOP lead.

    Results will come in about 1.5 hours. Nate Silver on 538 says that if the GOP wins by less than 20%, its a sign the GOP could lose the House next year. He says that if the Dems win the Congressional popular vote by 9% next year they have a good chance at retaking the House.

    http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 11th April 2017 at 11:28 PM.
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  6. #26
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    From twitter:

    Sedgwick County early vote for #KS04 race was 45% Democrats, 42% Republicans, 13% Independents ... (1/2)

    Looks like Thompson (D) is winning the Sedgwick early vote 62% to 37%. This suggests substantial crossover vote for Thompson... (2/3) #KS04

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    In Edwards County, where 9/16 precincts are counted, Thompson running *behind* Davis. Would be bad for Ds if it holds

    ----

    Early days yet but Trump won the state by 30% or so. The governor Sam Brownback is very unpopular partly for refusing Medicaid expansion so perhaps if it goes badly the WH can blame that.
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 12th April 2017 at 01:59 AM.
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  7. #27
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Estes starting to pull away with half the vote in on 50-48. Just under half the remaining vote is in largely Democratic Sedgwick County. 2017 Unofficial Kansas Election Results
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  8. #28
    NYCKY NYCKY is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    From twitter:

    Sedgwick County early vote for #KS04 race was 45% Democrats, 42% Republicans, 13% Independents ... (1/2)

    Looks like Thompson (D) is winning the Sedgwick early vote 62% to 37%. This suggests substantial crossover vote for Thompson... (2/3) #KS04

    -----
    Nate Cohn‏Verified account
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    In Edwards County, where 9/16 precincts are counted, Thompson running *behind* Davis. Would be bad for Ds if it holds

    ----

    Early days yet but Trump won the state by 30% or so. The governor Sam Brownback is very unpopular partly for refusing Medicaid expansion so perhaps if it goes badly the WH can blame that.
    Is Nate Silver still prognosticating on this stuff?

    Baseball has started up, I thought he might be busy!
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  9. #29
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Interestingly, the GOP did 27% better with polling-day voters than early voters in #KS04.

    Meanwhile latest early vote party ID figures from #GA06.

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  10. #30
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Update: Estes (R) ahead 52-46 with 73% of precincts in. But Trump won this district by 30%. Its also where the Koch brothers live and reportedly they preferred a different candidate in the GOP Congressional primary there.

    Live Results: G.O.P. Looks to Defend House Seat in Kansas Special Election

    According to Tom Bonier (who predicted a quarter of Florida Republicans would vote Clinton last year), 100 GOP seats would be lost on a swing like that in Kansas district 04. However this was an open seat as Pompeo left to head the CIA so the personal votes will be an issue next year that may shield some.
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