Register to Comment
Page 29 of 39 FirstFirst ... 192728293031 ... LastLast
Results 281 to 290 of 390
Like Tree25Likes
  1. #281
    Jack Walsh Jack Walsh is offline

    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    3,340

    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    My point is its not necessarily a bellwether. The electorate is around 38% with uni degrees not the 58% of this place.
    Fine, but that was the case 6 months ago too, when they romped home by 23%
    Now they are in a razor edge fight, and they can BS all they want about Ossoff spend, but we all know the main reason why that massive gap has been wiped out in just a few months.
    And we all know why 3 other overwhelmingly GOP seats were won (or will be) by skinny margins.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  2. #282
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
    Dame_Enda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    32,344

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    Fine, but that was the case 6 months ago too, when they skated home by 23%
    Now they are in a razor edge fight and they can BS all they want about Ossoff spend but we all know the main reason why that massive gap has been wiped out in just a few months.
    And we all know why 3 other overwhelmingly GOP seats were won (or will be) by skinny margins.
    But Trump only won it by 1% so that might be the better comparison. Plus the swings against the GOP wont be uniform next year. The more white-collar voters the bigger the swing if he remains underwater in the polls. The "Resistance" so far as noted by 538 recently is largely a White white collar phenomenon.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  3. #283
    NYCKY NYCKY is offline
    NYCKY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    12,351

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    House election results in this district since 2002

    2002 GOP by 57% (yes not a misprint, 57%)
    2006 GOP by 43%
    2008 GOP BY 37%
    2012 gop by 30%
    2014 GOP by 32%
    2016 (just 6 months ago!) GOP by 24%

    to lose a house seat that you have won by an average margin of over 35% in the past 15 years and won by 24% just six months ago would be catastrophe.

    You are just spinning wildly as usual, with your "oh this district is a toss up in reality, no big deal" Shtick. .
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    Sorry Enda, won't wash.
    The demographics are certainly more favourable than Kansas, but this district has elected one GOP congressman after another by absolute landslides. for decades.
    There is no getting away from that.

    Jack, from your own quote a few weeks ago. Look at the margins, the GOP was winning by 15 years ago and the trend since then. It's been shrinking every time. Trump won here by 1%, yet Congressman Price won by 24%. Price was a Congressman there for several terms and clearly some of this was a personal vote, that won't be a factor this time.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  4. #284
    Jack Walsh Jack Walsh is offline

    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    3,340

    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    But Trump only won it by 1% so that might be the better comparison. Plus the swings against the GOP wont be uniform next year. The more white-collar voters the bigger the swing if he remains underwater in the polls. The "Resistance" so far as noted by 538 recently is largely a White white collar phenomenon.


    Tom Price won by 23%
    He won by 33% 4 years earlier
    So yes Trump cost him but he still handed over a 23% lead
    That is an absolutely huge lead to blow in 6 months.

    If Trump didn't exist, Jon Ossoff could throw 23 billion at the race and he would still be trounced.
    You know it, I know it, we all know it.

    He is a major liability to the GOP right now, and I believe it will get a lot worse
    Hence why I don't want him impeached any time soon

    He is as big a gift to the Dems right now than Cowen and Bertie were to FG 2008-2011
    Last edited by Jack Walsh; 19th June 2017 at 10:52 PM.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  5. #285
    Jack Walsh Jack Walsh is offline

    Join Date
    Jun 2015
    Posts
    3,340

    Quote Originally Posted by NYCKY View Post
    Jack, from your own quote a few weeks ago. Look at the margins, the GOP was winning by 15 years ago and the trend since then. It's been shrinking every time. Trump won here by 1%, yet Congressman Price won by 24%. Price was a Congressman there for several terms and clearly some of this was a personal vote, that won't be a factor this time.
    Yes, but FFS not by 24% in 6 months
    Look, a seat that was won by 33% 4 years ago and 24% just 6 months ago is up for grabs.
    We can to and fro all night, but that's the reality.

    The seat has moved from deepest red to simply deep red in last 15 years
    But sorry, that doesn't explain losing 24% in 6 months.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  6. #286
    NYCKY NYCKY is offline
    NYCKY's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    12,351

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    Yes, but FFS not by 24% in 6 months
    Look, a seat that was won by 33% 4 years ago and 24% just 6 months ago is up for grabs.
    We can to and fro all night, but that's the reality.

    The seat has moved from deepest red to simply deep red in last 15 years
    But sorry, that doesn't explain losing 24% in 6 months.
    Agree, the optics aren't good for the GOP. It certainly is a huge drop but the trend is to be fair is noticeable.

    Polls consistently show a close race but let's see what the final numbers are.

    I mentioned earlier in this thread, that regardless of who wins tomorrow, this will likely be contested by both parties in 2018, (although with a lot less funds). It will be the kind of seat that whoever wins, will want to keep and whoever loses will want to pick up as part of a House majority.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  7. #287
    O'Sullivan Bere O'Sullivan Bere is offline
    O'Sullivan Bere's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    10,298

    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    But Trump only won it by 1% so that might be the better comparison. . . .
    Romney won it by 23 points in 2012. It's clearly supposed to be a safe GOP seat, a reason why Price was deemed safe to move to the Trump Admin. Any watering down of its red base over time is a p1ss in the bucket under normal circumstances.

    It's all about Trump's indigestibility with some leafy GOP voters this time and any voter statements made by this proxy vote. Trump hurts Handel big time by proxy and it will be close but it's Ossoff that still needs to climb Stone Mountain. That it's this close is a Trump problem for the GOP with leafy GOP voters. Whether Ossoff wins or loses by a fraction is the cosmetic part.

    But then again, that problem existed in the last election too hence the close Trump vote there as to him in GA-6. The Dems need to do better work motivating and shoring up the millions of defected voters they lost last election that usually vote Democrat and/or would do so if registered and/or motivated to vote. Millions took a shot with Trump disliking HRC and millions voted third party or write-in or skipped it, including many Bernie bros, for the same reason. That's down to better Democratic messaging and candidate choices along with Trump's controversies.

    Given how narrow Trump won with less than 80,000 votes combined in 3 key swing states whilst losing the popular vote with Dukakis numbers, the Dems only need to edge that up a bit for 2020 whereas Trump has no buffer he can suffer without.
    Last edited by O'Sullivan Bere; 19th June 2017 at 11:27 PM.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  8. #288
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
    Dame_Enda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    32,344

    Downpours now in GA-6. Torrential rain and flash flood warnings.

    Nate Cohn‏Verified account
    @Nate_Cohn
    Following
    More
    It is currently raining in the Democratic parts of GA-6, but not in the Republican parts lol

    -----

    Chad Pergram‏Verified account
    @ChadPergram
    Follow
    More
    GA judge orders Dekalb County to leave 2 polling locations open till 730 pm et due to “technical issues” in GA6 special election

    -----------

    (Dekalb county is largely Black).
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 20th June 2017 at 07:47 PM.
    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  9. #289
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
    Dame_Enda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    32,344

    Sign in or Register Now to reply

  10. #290
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
    Dame_Enda's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    32,344

    FiveThirtyEight‏Verified account
    @FiveThirtyEight
    Following
    More
    How much Ossoff needs in each county to win overall: http://53eig.ht/2rO21G9

    Sign in or Register Now to reply

Page 29 of 39 FirstFirst ... 192728293031 ... LastLast
Sign in to CommentRegister to Comment