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  1. #11
    livingstone livingstone is offline
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    In 2010, the GOP enjoyed a c9% swing away from the Dems and towards them. That was widely viewed as a massive rebuff to Obama - his famous shellacking.

    In the two years before the 2010 midterms, Obama's lowest approval rating with Gallup was 43%. It was 45% in the last Gallup poll before the midterms. In the RCP average net approval ratings, his worst net rating was -6 (in September 2010). His lowest net ratings in his entire first term was -9.3%.

    In 1994, the GOP achieved a c6% swing in the House elections. Clinton's last Gallup rating before that election was 48%. His lowest rating in the first two years of his term was 37%. His worst net favorability with Gallup was -15 in his first two years.

    To put that in context - Trump's average net rating now is -10.8 and his net favorability with Gallup is -24.

    So Trump is doing much worse than both Clinton and Obama in their first two years when both suffered significant losses. Now, perhaps he'll improve. And perhaps he'll be the first President in a long time whose popularity or unpopularity won't affect House elections in mid term. But if his ratings remained as they are - or got worse - we could expect swings against the GOP in the House worse than in 1994 or 2010.

    A 6% swing would result in Dems 54%-GOP 43%. An 8% swing would be Dems 56%-GOP 41%.

    Of course the Senate is a different matter since the contests will be disproportionately focused on Democratic incumbent in states won by Trump. But if Trump's performance continues as it has, the House could really be in play.
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  2. #12
    O'Sullivan Bere O'Sullivan Bere is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by livingstone View Post
    In 2010, the GOP enjoyed a c9% swing away from the Dems and towards them. That was widely viewed as a massive rebuff to Obama - his famous shellacking.

    In the two years before the 2010 midterms, Obama's lowest approval rating with Gallup was 43%. It was 45% in the last Gallup poll before the midterms. In the RCP average net approval ratings, his worst net rating was -6 (in September 2010). His lowest net ratings in his entire first term was -9.3%.

    In 1994, the GOP achieved a c6% swing in the House elections. Clinton's last Gallup rating before that election was 48%. His lowest rating in the first two years of his term was 37%. His worst net favorability with Gallup was -15 in his first two years.

    To put that in context - Trump's average net rating now is -10.8 and his net favorability with Gallup is -24.

    So Trump is doing much worse than both Clinton and Obama in their first two years when both suffered significant losses. Now, perhaps he'll improve. And perhaps he'll be the first President in a long time whose popularity or unpopularity won't affect House elections in mid term. But if his ratings remained as they are - or got worse - we could expect swings against the GOP in the House worse than in 1994 or 2010.

    A 6% swing would result in Dems 54%-GOP 43%. An 8% swing would be Dems 56%-GOP 41%.

    Of course the Senate is a different matter since the contests will be disproportionately focused on Democratic incumbent in states won by Trump. But if Trump's performance continues as it has, the House could really be in play.
    The GOP gerrymandered the House map and have pulled other stunts to consolidate power at the polls, the more cosmopolitan minded populations have been shifting coastal (hence what happened in 2016 with the election voters/results mismatches), and the Senate map is GOP favourable. Partisanship keeps rising too.

    Quite frankly, it's still an uphill battle for the Dems with that in mind where IMO most Republicans would vote for anyone with an R regardless of character and fitness or their own self interests...they already do hence Trump in office.
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  3. #13
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    These 23 Republicans were elected in districts that voted for HRC.

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  4. #14
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Dan Scavino, Trumps social media advisor, calling for primary challenges against Freedom Caucus, specifically Justin Amash (R-Michigan).

    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/32...s-member-amash

    Also Matt Drudge thinks Congress deliberately sabotaging Trump.



    How early voting is going in #GA06 so far compared to 2014 midterms. GOP have no chance of winning the first round because of 5 or six candidates whereas the Dems are rallying to Jon Ossoff who is leading Karen Handel 40-20. Traditionally Dems win the first round but are overwhelmed in Round 2.

    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 1st April 2017 at 06:36 PM.
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  5. #15
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Latest Georgia District 6 early voting stats.

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  6. #16
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Map of turnout in #GA06. So far in highest turnout areas, 20% of Dems who voted in 2016 have already voted early. I think this seat is in jeopardy in second round. Dems managed to unite around one candidate whereas GOP are victims of their ideological individualism by running loads of candidates splitting the vote. Of course events and all that.



    On other hand Republican ahead 56-32 in Kansas 4th district (Mike Pompeos seat).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas...,_2017#Polling
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 5th April 2017 at 09:25 PM.
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  7. #17
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  8. #18
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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  9. #19
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Kansas 4th District Special Election is on 11th. Registered GOP only ahead 7% among early voters compared to 2-1 in 2016. Cruz expected to campaign there.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas...,_2017#Polling

    Latest D/R/I trends from Georgia 6th district early voting. Jon Ossoff (D) certain to win 1st round because there are 11 GOP candidates splitting the vote. Polls show Round 2 will be a cliffhanger.

    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 8th April 2017 at 08:01 PM.
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  10. #20
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Montana At-Large Special Election very close. Quist is a country-and-western singer. Trump won Montana 55-35 but the state has had a Democratic governor since 2004.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montan...,_2017#Polling

    Gianforte (R) Quist (D)
    Google Consumer Surveys April 6-8, 2017 333 5.4% 44% 45% 11% — —
    Gravis Marketing April 6, 2017 1,222 2.9% 50% 38% 3% 2% 7%
    Google Consumer Surveys March 20, 2017 333 4.2% 41% 48% 11% — —
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