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  1. #1831
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    Yes the generic congressional polls have undoubtedly tightened a bit last two weeks.
    IBD/TIPP even has a tie today (although polling seems to have occurred 7-10 days ago)

    But there is just no way you can be in a tie nationwide and in a tie in Ohio 12th.

    Very interesting article here https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinio...umn/926926002/, and even below the headline stats, some numbers that should terrify GOP

    But people who look at only race will miss the larger story of whatís going on with Trumpís crumbling numbers in the Midwest. Income tells a much clearer story. In Wisconsin, Trump is at 41 percent approval among voters earning at least $50,000 a year and only 28 percent with those earning less than that. In Michigan, 32 percent of those earning under $50,000 approve of Trump, compared with 37 percent earning at least $50,000 a year.


    The very people who sent Trump to the White House are getting reamed by him and his policies, aren't a cent better off despite good economic conditions, and they are turning on him.
    The gawdy bragging show off rallies disguise this as Trump machine endlessly drones how popular he is with lower income Americans

    But look at most of the idiots in their ridiculous gear and chanting, they aren't piss poor sub 40k households.

    There is no route back to the WH in 2020 if Dems sweep this region, none.
    As of now, they are in postilion A to do just that
    Some clarification. Fivethirtyeight looked into this and after the election and found Trump voters were not low income but was higher among people who hadn't a third level education. I would argue though that theres a huge difference in voting patterns between White working class and minority-working class.

    I would also point out that the 12th district of Ohio voted for Obama and then voted for Trump so it is a swing district. Also presidents usually lose seats in the midterms.
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  2. #1832
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Ohio 12th district gap narrowed by 190 votes following hundreds more votes found in one country that is in a suburb of Columbus. Still not 100% certain who won. There is a deadline of August 24 for all the absentee and provisional ballots to be counted.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...unted-votes-in

    Now considering this was a 190 vote lead out of 588 votes, if the remaining votes break down like that O'Connor might win. But I doubt they will because most absentee/provisional ballots are from the GOP counties, though Delware county only voted 54-46 for Balderson.
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 9th August 2018 at 06:22 AM.
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  3. #1833
    Greg T Greg T is offline

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    'Yesterday there were four primaries and one special election in the United States. .. And many folks thought that the progressive movement in this country could follow up on the victory of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York City. But that didnít quite happen. But things did move forward. ..'
    therealnewsDotcom/stories/progressive-groups-tackled-tough-races-winning-some-losing-others

    Not much though, (Only one actual personell victory I think, Real News was doing a postive spin, there was an important victory for union rights on the positive side)
    2 factors; Establishment/corporate funded Dems tilting left to appease and Trump looking so bad that they again look good in comparison and a certain closing of ranks against the worse than ever neo-conservatism he represents

    The only 'progressive' win reported in the latest batch AFAIK (Rashiba is a DSA member with the usual progressive coalition behind her). Detroit, Michigan. Google 'Rashida Tlaib'

    Incomplete results with gossip www_voxDotcom/policy-and-politics
    Also messy but more comprehensive ballotpediaDotorg/Main_Page
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  4. #1834
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    4 polls today/yesterday show a narrowing national race. RCP average lead down to 5% now.

    Reuters/Ipsos 8/3 - 8/7 1479 RV 41 39 Democrats +2
    Economist/YouGov 8/5 - 8/7 1289 RV 44 41 Democrats +3
    IBD/TIPP 7/26 - 8/2 878 RV 45 45 Tie
    Rasmussen Reports 7/29 - 8/2 2500 LV 45 41 Democrats +4

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html
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  5. #1835
    valamhic valamhic is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    4 polls today/yesterday show a narrowing national race. RCP average lead down to 5% now.

    Reuters/Ipsos 8/3 - 8/7 1479 RV 41 39 Democrats +2
    Economist/YouGov 8/5 - 8/7 1289 RV 44 41 Democrats +3
    IBD/TIPP 7/26 - 8/2 878 RV 45 45 Tie
    Rasmussen Reports 7/29 - 8/2 2500 LV 45 41 Democrats +4

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html
    Good post. Does anyone know what effect the others like the greens has on elections?
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  6. #1836
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by valamhic View Post
    Good post. Does anyone know what effect the others like the greens has on elections?
    Well in Ohio-12 the Greens won around 0.7% which if the margin stays at it is may or may not have changed the outcome in the GOPs favour by splitting the leftwing vote slightly.
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  7. #1837
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    The Hill

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    Man incorrectly turned away from polling location because of his MAGA hat http://hill.cm/Acfx1gf
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  8. #1838
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    Some clarification. Fivethirtyeight looked into this and after the election and found Trump voters were not low income but was higher among people who hadn't a third level education. I would argue though that theres a huge difference in voting patterns between White working class and minority-working class.

    I would also point out that the 12th district of Ohio voted for Obama and then voted for Trump so it is a swing district. Also presidents usually lose seats in the midterms.

    It has been GOP since 1982 and was redistricted after 2010 as follows:-
    '
    From 2003 to 2013 the district included eastern Columbus, including most of its heavily African-American neighborhoods. The district also took in most of its northern suburbs, including Westerville. It was one of two districts that split the capital, the other being the 15th District. For most of the time from the 1980s to the 2000s, it was considered to be less Republican than the 15th, in part due to its large black population. However, redistricting after the 2010 census drew nearly all of the 15th's black constituents into the 3rd District, while the 15th was pushed into more exurban and Republican areas north and east of the capital.'

    So, not a swing district, and certainly not since 2012. The lowest GOP House vote there since then was 64%.
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  9. #1839
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    Some clarification. Fivethirtyeight looked into this and after the election and found Trump voters were not low income but was higher among people who hadn't a third level education. I would argue though that theres a huge difference in voting patterns between White working class and minority-working class.

    I would also point out that the 12th district of Ohio voted for Obama and then voted for Trump so it is a swing district. Also presidents usually lose seats in the midterms.
    As we say continually, "it is not who wins Ohio-12, it is the margin".

    What the Obama-Trump swing shows is that the media spin about "Trumpland" is a myth. Trump is looking more and more like a millstone dragging down the Republican Party:



    Republicans lost support in every special congressional election since President Trump took office, and Ohio’s 12th District on Tuesday was no exception. The 12th district may have voted for Obama, but it put a Republican into Congress in every election from 2002 to this one.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...publicans.html

    If those margins are duplicated across the board, Republicans may win Ohio-12 again in November, but they will lose a lot of seats that are Toss-Ups or Leaning Republican right now.
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  10. #1840
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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