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  1. #1311
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Tomorrow, primaries will occur in the following states.

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  2. #1312
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    JUST IN: Prosecutors drop case against Missouri GOP governor related to naked photo blackmail scandal https://t.co/bOsDpPFLTw https://t.co/joHSSJmk4P
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  3. #1313
    NYCKY NYCKY is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    JUST IN: Prosecutors drop case against Missouri GOP governor related to naked photo blackmail scandal https://t.co/bOsDpPFLTw https://t.co/joHSSJmk4P
    The charges are being refiled.
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  4. #1314
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    ‘Unlawful’ ballot destruction found in Wasserman Schultz race https://t.co/KskpWFBlOO https://t.co/UumvutNIXV

    As a result Rick Scott says the FL Secretary of States office will sent someone to monitor Broward county's election supervisor in the midterms.
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  5. #1315
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    Ohio 12th district a 2% race. Trump approval there is 49-47 despite Trump winning it by large margin. http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...tiberi-in-ohio
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  6. #1316
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Democrats' lead down to 4.7% in RCP average, the lowest for some time, which would probably insufficient for House majority (polls listed in May to date below):-

    RCP Average 4/25 - 5/15 -- 45.2 40.5 Democrats +4.7
    Economist/YouGov 5/13 - 5/15 1231 RV 42 37 Democrats +5
    Rasmussen Reports 5/6 - 5/10 2500 LV 46 40 Democrats +6
    CNN 5/2 - 5/5 901 RV 47 44 Democrats +3
    Economist/YouGov 5/6 - 5/8 1232 RV 44 35 Democrats +9
    Reuters/Ipsos 5/4 - 5/8 1171 RV 39 38 Democrats +1
    Economist/YouGov 4/29 - 5/1 1273 RV 42 39 Democrats +3
    Reuters/Ipsos 4/27 - 5/1 1337 RV 43 37 Democrats +6
    Pew Research 4/25 - 5/1 1221 RV 48 43 Democrats +5
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  7. #1317
    Jack Walsh Jack Walsh is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    Democrats' lead down to 4.7% in RCP average, the lowest for some time, which would probably insufficient for House majority (polls listed in May to date below):-

    RCP Average 4/25 - 5/15 -- 45.2 40.5 Democrats +4.7
    Economist/YouGov 5/13 - 5/15 1231 RV 42 37 Democrats +5
    Rasmussen Reports 5/6 - 5/10 2500 LV 46 40 Democrats +6
    CNN 5/2 - 5/5 901 RV 47 44 Democrats +3
    Economist/YouGov 5/6 - 5/8 1232 RV 44 35 Democrats +9
    Reuters/Ipsos 5/4 - 5/8 1171 RV 39 38 Democrats +1
    Economist/YouGov 4/29 - 5/1 1273 RV 42 39 Democrats +3
    Reuters/Ipsos 4/27 - 5/1 1337 RV 43 37 Democrats +6
    Pew Research 4/25 - 5/1 1221 RV 48 43 Democrats +5
    A 5% winning margin would still be enough to take the House, barring something freakish.
    Also with nearly 15% undecided and most of them presumably independent leaning, it is likely it is over 5%

    Unsure why American pollsters don't distribute undecided.
    With essentially just three groupings, Dems, Reps and Inds, it should be easy enough to do it fairly well.
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  8. #1318
    midlander12 midlander12 is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    A 5% winning margin would still be enough to take the House, barring something freakish.
    Also with nearly 15% undecided and most of them presumably independent leaning, it is likely it is over 5%
    Perhaps, but the GOP have a lead of 15% or more in most of the 'closest' seats. A swing of 5% or so would not be enough unless it was greatly amplified in the swing seats.
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  9. #1319
    Jack Walsh Jack Walsh is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    Perhaps, but the GOP have a lead of 15% or more in most of the 'closest' seats. A swing of 5% or so would not be enough unless it was greatly amplified in the swing seats.
    I don't understand what you mean.

    If the Dems poll better than 50% (even very low 50s) they will take the House
    They have frequently won the House comfortably with 51-53%
    Even with some slippage in last 2-3 months, they are comfortably in that range at present
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  10. #1320
    O'Sullivan Bere O'Sullivan Bere is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Walsh View Post
    A 5% winning margin would still be enough to take the House, barring something freakish.
    Also with nearly 15% undecided and most of them presumably independent leaning, it is likely it is over 5%

    Unsure why American pollsters don't distribute undecided.
    With essentially just three groupings, Dems, Reps and Inds, it should be easy enough to do it fairly well.
    It's probably somewhere in between the highest polls a couple months ago and lower polls seen now at this point. Viewing the most recent special elections, it's not a good sign for the GOP, but there's plenty of time until November for better or for worse, all depending on what happens.

    Polls fluctuate as people do. An uptick in good news or bad news fits into to depending on the day. Party loyalists and fake independents that clearly vote for one side or the other like to say they're unhappy, but in the end, they come around to toe the party line. It's 1.3 years for the Trump Admin going into these non-Presidential year primaries and the general race for then is in November, so there is fatigue for many with the daily politics and talking points absent something explosive. 'Spring Fever' is in the air, etc.
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