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  1. #1141
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    538 tweeted yesterday (in GMT terms) that with so many GOP retirements, the % lead the Dems need to win control of the House drops and is now under 7%.
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  2. #1142
    Sync Sync is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    538 tweeted yesterday (in GMT terms) that with so many GOP retirements, the % lead the Dems need to win control of the House drops and is now under 7%.
    CNN have a good breakdown of the numbers of resignations: https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/11/polit...ave/index.html

    I do think this is 30% kids, 30% not wanting to be minority whip in 6 months time and 40% wanting to run for President and not wanting to be tainted.
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  3. #1143
    NYCKY NYCKY is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    CNN have a good breakdown of the numbers of resignations: https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/11/polit...ave/index.html

    I do think this is 30% kids, 30% not wanting to be minority whip in 6 months time and 40% wanting to run for President and not wanting to be tainted.
    I thought the title of the CNN article slightly misleading. His term isn't that short, certainly not in the modern era, keeping in mind that he has another 8 months left to go.

    Ryan never wanted to be Speaker, it's been widely speculated that he would have stepped down by 2020 and also widely speculated that he would again run for national office. Why taint himself with a long Speakership, accumulating enemies/skeletons all over the place?

    There is a reason that despite the national profiles, you rarely see House or Senate leaders, of either party running for national office.

    Right now there are slightly more than twice as many Republicans as Democrats retiring, ok there are more Republicans in Congress so you would expect more of them to be retiring in the normal cycle but there aren't twice as many Republicans members as Democrats.

    Close to 1 in 7 House members are retiring/not running again, some due to old age, health etc but many are running for higher office; 10 are running for the Senate, 7 of them from the GOP where they have credible chances of toppling Democratic incumbents (should they win a primary) in places like West Virginia, and Indiana, others where they have credible chances of holding GOP seats in places like Arizona and Tennessee. Another 9 are running for Governor, including 5 from the GOP.

    Others like Trey Gowdy, young and in safe Republican seats are just fed up with the broken system and want to do something else.


    That said, it's easy to see why so many are not running again, leaving aside, genuine retirements, higher office runs etc, they don't want spend oodles to get narrowly re-elected, to be in the minority bogged down in impeachment proceedings against Trump, in a toxic unproductive political environment.
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  4. #1144
    Sync Sync is offline
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    And that’s the key thing. If you’re Ryan, This has been a ball ache of herding GOP cats on the different philosophies in order to get through your tax reforms.

    If you’re the minority whip, you just get the ballache. Pelosi would have it too if there was a less devisive President.
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  5. #1145
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Will Governor Greitens (R-MO)'s woes help Sen Claire McCaskill (D-MO)? The Missouri AG called on him to resign today, amid allegations from a woman he had an affair with of forcible sexual contact. The AG ironically is the frontrunner in the GOP primary for the Senate seat. New Mason-Dixon poll in April gives her a 1% lead over Josh Hawley (R).

    http://thehill.com/homenews/state-wa...s-to-step-down

    Also Republican pollster finds Sherrod Brown (D-OH)'s lead over likely GOP candidate Jim Renacci down to 1%. Taken in April.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...2018#Polling_2
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 12th April 2018 at 05:12 AM.
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  6. #1146
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    The Arizona district seat looks safe for GOP. Leads 10% in today's poll.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ecial-election
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  7. #1147
    USER1234 USER1234 is offline
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    Paul Ryan has endorsed his top lieutenant, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, to be his successor

    Paul Ryan Backs Kevin McCarthy For House Speaker
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  8. #1148
    gracethepirate gracethepirate is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by USER1234 View Post
    Paul Ryan has endorsed his top lieutenant, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, to be his successor

    Paul Ryan Backs Kevin McCarthy For House Speaker
    Another Republican with an Irish name. Likely part of the diaspora.
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  9. #1149
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    GOP primary civil war in West Virginia. The Senate Leadership Fund (close to Majority leader McConnell) running ads against front-runner coal mining magnate Don Blankenship who has a past criminal conviction for "conspiracy to violate mine safety and health standards".
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  10. #1150
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is offline
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    Dem lead down to 4% in today's ABC/WP poll.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...vote-6185.html
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