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  1. #1
    Mick Mac Mick Mac is offline

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    For America the pivot to Russia will be about security.

    One of the key moves of President-elect Trump appears to be a new relationship with Russia We are all supposed to now consider the pivot towards Russia in terms of 4Chan's Pissgate but there are other reasons why this reordering of American Foreign Policy could be on the cards and represents a strategic choice and one likely to anger some actors.

    America is obsessed with energy security. So is every single country in the world including Ireland. Ever since the oil crises of the 70s its become an imperative to keep on the right side of the middle east countries and keep the oil flowing. Fake dossiers were created to go to war to secure oil reserves, support given to jihadist armies in Syria to eventually secure a pipe line into Russia and so on. Its a long list and its not a very glorious one.

    The problem is the suppliers of the oil have not only gone off the ranch, but they have gone off their trolley. They are funding islamist armies in several countries including Al Qaida in Syria and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Both entities which America was supposed to be enemies of. The 28 pages report detailed links between Prince Bandar, former head of Saudi Intelligence, and 9-11. Bandar Bush as he was known was good enough to be head of intelligence but not good enough to know who his wife was doling out money to.

    Further Saudi Arabia is now being stated as a threat to democracies like Germany. The German Foreign Minister making so bold as to point out their involvement in terrorism.

    Sigmar Gabriel said that the Saudi regime is funding extremist mosques and communities that pose a danger to public security. “We have to make clear to the Saudis that the time of looking away is over,” Mr Gabriel told Bild am Sonntag newspaper in an interview. He added: “Wahhabi mosques all over the world are financed by Saudi Arabia. Many Islamists who are a threat to public safety come from these communities in Germany.” The charge that Saudi Arabia has funded mosques with links to Islamist terrorism in the West is not new.
    For Americans the recent efforts to destroy the shale industry by refusing to cut production may have been the final straw. Saudi Arabia is an unreliable ally and is involved in anti-western activities all across the west. In other words its everything Russia is supposed to be.

    Russia was previously the enemy and Saudi the friend.
    "That’s why America purchased a lot of oil from Saudi Arabia and very little from Russia. For the period 1973-2005, America’s oil imports from the Saudi kingdom remained steady, in the range of one to 1.5 million barrels per day. Over the same period, America’s oil imports from Russia fluctuated widely, rising from next to nothing in the 1970s and 1980s to a couple of hundred thousand barrels a day in the early 2000s, before falling back to less 38 thousand in 2015."
    America only gets a small portion of oil from the Saudis. But there is a different angle and its the supply of oil to allies.

    Critics also point to the rise in US oil production as evidence that the US-Saudi alliance has outlived its purpose,” says Gregory Gause III in «The Future of US-Saudi Relations,» published in the July/August 2016 issue of Foreign Affairs. “But the ties between the two countries have never been about American access to Saudi hydrocarbons. In fact, when the relationship began in the early decades of the Cold War, the United States did not import a drop of oil from the Arabian Peninsula. What has always undergirded the relationship is the importance of Saudi (and the rest of the region’s) oil to the global market. The Persian Gulf still produces 30 percent of the world’s oil, with Saudi Arabia accounting for over a third of that output. Disruptions in the Gulf thus continue to reverberate worldwide.
    Back in the day it was about supplying Europe and Japan with oil but now the troops in the gulf are keeping open an alternative oil supply line for China which is not an American ally. President Obama knew that and President Trump does as well.

    Russia is now the largest supplier of oil in the world and has the largest gas reserves in the world. The lifting of sanctions and allowing the big oil exploration deal to go ahead could make them the largest oil reserves since some estimates of the siberian fields size them at 100 billion barrels.

    So the question for Trump seems to be do you stick with an anti-western, volatile, prone to military adventures oil supplier that probably helped get the George Bushs elected (Bandar Bush) and likely tried to get Hillary elected since certainly its donation of between USD10-25 million to the Clinton foundation wasnt because it values child education and the environment or do you replace that with a country called anti-western, adventurist, and unpredictable who happens to be a major oil supplier and probably helped get you elected.

    This then is a question of strategic choices. Its a major pivot and it goes against the presumed interests of those people like the Bush family who are as compromised as Trump is alleged to be with Russia. That explains the opposition since politicians compromised by foreign oil money hasnt been an issue before.


    Forbes discusses this topic


    Mick
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  2. #2
    Ardillaun Ardillaun is offline

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    Of the three great military powers, Russia is the most unstable with a collapsed economy and no proper rules of succession. Russian communism post-Stalin made sure no one person got too big for his boots. The threat Putin's Russia poses to the world dwarfs anything in the Middle East.
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  3. #3
    stopdoingstuff stopdoingstuff is offline
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    It might be the reverse-Kissinger. He played the Chinese off against the Russians. Perhaps now the reverse will be the case.
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  4. #4
    sadcitizen sadcitizen is offline

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    Well we already know what Trump thinks about Saudi royals and their wealth from oil




    And we already know what he thinks about intervention in Syria which is obviously related to energy supply.

    I guess the question I really would like answered is, is it possible for a US president to have any substantial effect on their foreign policy one way or another, following on from their predecessor.
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  5. #5
    Erudite Caveman Erudite Caveman is online now

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    Pivot is the sort of thing that geopolitical strategists come up with. Trump is not from that world. He is a novice that will be handed diplomatic setbacks repeatedly, until he learns the rules, over the likes of his amateurish courting of Putin.
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  6. #6
    Mick Mac Mick Mac is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardillaun View Post
    Of the three great military powers, Russia is the most unstable with a collapsed economy and no proper rules of succession. Russian communism post-Stalin made sure no one person got too big for his boots. The threat Putin's Russia poses to the world dwarfs anything in the Middle East.
    Certainly true but Saudi Arabia is involved in multiple wars, may have provided logistical support for the 9-11 air crews, has bought influence with all the major countries, and is an absolute monarchy that despises 10% of its population while living in Versailles like wealth and all this in a part of the world thats marked by war and revolution.

    Russia compares well and its no saint.

    Mick
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  7. #7
    Mick Mac Mick Mac is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Erudite Caveman View Post
    Pivot is the sort of thing that geopolitical strategists come up with. Trump is not from that world. He is a novice that will be handed diplomatic setbacks repeatedly, until he learns the rules, over the likes of his amateurish courting of Putin.
    Its true but Obama didnt come up with the idea of the pivot to Asia and everyone in the state dept. go hey thats a really clever idea. Kissinger could and likely enough others.

    Mark
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  8. #8
    gleeful gleeful is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ardillaun View Post
    Of the three great military powers, Russia is the most unstable with a collapsed economy and no proper rules of succession. Russian communism post-Stalin made sure no one person got too big for his boots. The threat Putin's Russia poses to the world dwarfs anything in the Middle East.
    This is untrue. The Russian economy is growing at 1.3% annually, which in the UK the Brexiteers tells us is a 'boom'.
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  9. #9
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Erudite Caveman View Post
    Pivot is the sort of thing that geopolitical strategists come up with. Trump is not from that world. He is a novice that will be handed diplomatic setbacks repeatedly, until he learns the rules, over the likes of his amateurish courting of Putin.

    If I were Putin, the last man or woman I would want as US President favourably disposed to my country would be the
    Pussy-Grabber and Twitter-Flame-Warrior-in-Chief.

    "Signed Anasty Onatopova"
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  10. #10
    Ardillaun Ardillaun is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by gleeful View Post
    This is untrue. The Russian economy is growing at 1.3% annually, which in the UK the Brexiteers tells us is a 'boom'.
    Growth from what base? The Russian economy is tiny.
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