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  1. #21
    CJH CJH is offline

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    [quote=Stíofán]
    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth
    Quote Originally Posted by "certain_people":1ro2r5bu
    The Polls are Open!

    Last Zogby poll for Reuters/C-Span has McCain ahead by 1%...if Romney loses, he's in serious, serious trouble.
    3 polls today. 2 give it to McCain by 1%. The other gives it to Romney by 6%!!
    I have €70 on McCain to win the nomination (Evens, Paddy Power today - he was on 25/1 at the height of his troubles during the summer). I need Jonny to win tonight.[/quote:1ro2r5bu]

    Evens? They are terrible odds. I have a bad feeling re the Republicans. Too many of them are too right wing and too evangelical to support McCain. I hope Im wrong, but I think Huckabee might win it overall
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  2. #22
    Stíofán Stíofán is offline
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    [quote=CJH]
    Quote Originally Posted by Stíofán
    Quote Originally Posted by kerrynorth
    Quote Originally Posted by "certain_people":e7mc5p25
    The Polls are Open!

    Last Zogby poll for Reuters/C-Span has McCain ahead by 1%...if Romney loses, he's in serious, serious trouble.
    3 polls today. 2 give it to McCain by 1%. The other gives it to Romney by 6%!!
    I have €70 on McCain to win the nomination (Evens, Paddy Power today - he was on 25/1 at the height of his troubles during the summer). I need Jonny to win tonight.
    Evens? They are terrible odds. I have a bad feeling re the Republicans. Too many of them are too right wing and too evangelical to support McCain. I hope Im wrong, but I think Huckabee might win it overall[/quote:e7mc5p25]

    Huckabee is 3-1 or something like that if you want to have a flutter. Evens is fine odds, given he is the strongest candtitate out of a very, very bad field. It'll be close. Hopefully independent voters will come into the Republican field, given the Dem race is largely meaningless.

    I need him to win tonight, Romney to bow out, McCain to win SC with post Michigan bounce, and then win Florida with 3 straight wins behind him.

    Huckabee won't get it. Say it plays out the way Huckabee wants... Romney wins tonight, he wins in SC, Rudy wins in Florida, the race is wide open. Now you have 4 guys on a fairly equal footing who have to contest delegate rich states: California, New York etc... No way are they going to vote for Huckabee. Republican establishment won't allow it. I think he'd be a good VP pick though. He's charming, can pull off the banter on Letterman/Leno with some style, and will rally the base.
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  3. #23
    Mozalini Mozalini is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
    Quote Originally Posted by Mozalini
    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach
    CNN will be covering the results from 2 AM GMT.
    An hour later than usual? I imagine a good chunk of results will be in by that stage?
    Michigan is further West than NH so it will probably be earlier over there than it was in NH at that time.
    Duh, sorry!
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  4. #24
    KingKane KingKane is offline
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    I think Romney might sneak this one (kiss of death)
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  5. #25
    CJH CJH is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKane
    I think Romney might sneak this one (kiss of death)
    I hope you're right.

    About the kiss of death, I mean

    But I have a feeling you might have called this correctly
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  6. #26
    certain_people certain_people is offline
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    Well, the opinion polls are too close to call. Within the margin of error. So I'm not going to call it. But if the Dems and Inds vote in the GOP primary because the Dem one is a waste of time, that can only help McCain. So I'm cautiously optimistic.
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  7. #27
    Jabberhawkie Jabberhawkie is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by certain_people
    Well, the opinion polls are too close to call. Within the margin of error. So I'm not going to call it. But if the Dems and Inds vote in the GOP primary because the Dem one is a waste of time, that can only help McCain. So I'm cautiously optimistic.
    There's a "Democrats for Mitt" movement. Several liberal blogs are encouraging Democrats to vote for Mitt since keeping Mitt and his millions in the race just means more mud slung at the other Republicans.

    Hopefully McCain will lose since he'd be the toughest to beat. It's better if the GOP are fractured for a bit longer.
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  8. #28
    certain_people certain_people is offline
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    Yeah but a lot of moderate Dems like McCain. The ones that were floating between McCain and Obama in NH. With no Obama, they may vote for McCain in MI.
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  9. #29
    kerrynorth kerrynorth is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by certain_people
    Yeah but a lot of moderate Dems like McCain. The ones that were floating between McCain and Obama in NH. With no Obama, they may vote for McCain in MI.
    What Jabberhawkie is saying is what I said earlier that with no real Democratic Primary there are going to be a lot of floating Democratic spoilers out there to nobble McCain who is the only GOP candidate who can defeat either Clinton or Obama.
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  10. #30
    kerrynorth kerrynorth is offline

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    The punters on Betfair are betting strongly on a Romney victory. The betting is 1/5 Romey and 10/3 McCain.
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