Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 5%. The D/R/I turnout in the wave year for Democrats in 2008 was 39/31/30 (D+8). The 2010 turnout which was a wave election for Republicans had a D/R/I of 36/37/28 (R+1).
The latest CBS-NYT -Quinnipac giving Obama a 10 point lead that includes 26% Republicans - turnout worse than 2008. Specifically, the D/R/I breakdown is 36/26/33 (and 4 other) giving Democrats a turnout advantage of 10% - not a hope that will happen.
Their numbers for Florida and Pennsylvania are also skewed for the same reason and I may come back to that later with more exact figures for D/R/I breakdowns in those states in 2008 and 2010.