View Poll Results: 2 weeks out, who would you vote for?

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  • Obama (Democrat)

    395 77.91%
  • Romney (Republican)

    112 22.09%
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  1. #531
    Skyrocket Skyrocket is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    Well Independents are about 30-40% of the electorate so that could be enough to scupper the election for him with the polls running so close. These 47% remarks come across as cold and heartless. He is tarring all those who don't pay income tax with the "scrounger" brush, despite the fact that many are either retired, or earn too little to fall into the income tax net. To quote the late former Texas Democratic Governor Ann Richards at the 1988 Democrat Convention (when talking of George H.W. Bush), "he was born with a silver foot in his mouth".
    Quote Originally Posted by Al Gebra View Post
    With independents you need all the support you can get, skyrocket.
    I can't understand as to how you are spinning this as something that is not a bad thing for Romney.
    A third of all independents say that they would be less likely to vote for Mitt as a result of the video.
    That's not to be dismissed lightly.
    While I would not count Romney out just yet pretending that the latest gaffe hasn't dented his chances is pushing it a bit.
    It goes without saying that losing Independents is not good, but this has to be viewed in context.

    The context is that this '47%' controversy has been labelled as the death knell of the Romney campaign. If this were so, I would expect to be seeing mass desertions of Independent voters from Romney (i.e less likely to vote for him). What the poll shows is 29% less likely and 15% more likely to vote for him as a result of the controversy, so the net effect is -14% (counting only those more/less likely) for Romney among Independent voters. Not good but not enough by far to cost him the election. 53% of Independents couldn't care less about the controversy.
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  2. #532
    Skyrocket Skyrocket is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyrocket View Post
    It goes without saying that losing Independents is not good, but this has to be viewed in context.

    The context is that this '47%' controversy has been labelled as the death knell of the Romney campaign. If this were so, I would expect to be seeing mass desertions of Independent voters from Romney (i.e less likely to vote for him). What the poll shows is 29% less likely and 15% more likely to vote for him as a result of the controversy, so the net effect is -14% (counting only those more/less likely) for Romney among Independent voters. Not good but not enough by far to cost him the election. 53% of Independents couldn't care less about the controversy.
    Actually, I don't even think it will ultimately be a net loss of 14% for Romney among Independent voters. Here's why:

    15% of Independent voters said they were more likely to vote for Romney as a result of the '47%' controversy. I think most would agree that the vast majority of these would likely have ultimately voted for Romney in any event.

    Applying similar logic to the 29% of Independents who say they are less likely to vote for Romney as a result of this, I would estimate that at least half of this group of Independents would swing in favour of Obama regardless of the controversy.

    So I would put the real loss among Independent voters to Romney as being actually half of the net 14% 'less likely to vote for Romney' - 7%.
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  3. #533
    SideysGhost SideysGhost is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyrocket View Post
    So I would put the real loss among Independent voters to Romney as being actually half of the net 14% 'less likely to vote for Romney' - 7%.
    LOL, such deluded straw-clutching, yer not an FF/Ger are you?

    Even 7% of independents is another 2% overall gone when he's already 2-3% behind!

    Come on, give us a half-way plausible route to 270 for Romney from here.
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  4. #534
    libertarian-right libertarian-right is offline
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    Romney has no way of getting to 270, the swing states need to move in his favor and that's not happening. Unless something magical happens in the first debate, but it's a foregone conclusion. Otherwise it would be one of the biggest turn-arounds in election history with such a hap hazard campaign.
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  5. #535
    Dame_Enda Dame_Enda is online now
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    The RCP electoral map moves states to one camp when their average lead is 5%. Virginia is now at 4.7% and Ohio at 4.8%.

    I hear the GOP on Fox raising the role of the former Guantanamo inmate in the Libyan terror attack. He was released in 2007 - under the Bush admin - so they can't pin thst on Obama.
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  6. #536
    NYCKY NYCKY is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    Well Independents are about 30-40% of the electorate so that could be enough to scupper the election for him with the polls running so close. These 47% remarks come across as cold and heartless. He is tarring all those who don't pay income tax with the "scrounger" brush, despite the fact that many are either retired, or earn too little to fall into the income tax net. To quote the late former Texas Democratic Governor Ann Richards at the 1988 Democrat Convention (when talking of George H.W. Bush), "he was born with a silver foot in his mouth".
    The true number of independents is less than the 30-40%. I am not sure of party registration but each party has a core vote of about 40%, with the remaining 20% being a floating (or swing) vote. That 20% can be stratified further with certain strata at "likely Democrat" or "lean Republican" etc but it is this 20% of the electorate (and in reality less than that at this stage) that is being contested.
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  7. #537
    owedtojoy owedtojoy is online now
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYCKY View Post
    The true number of independents is less than the 30-40%. I am not sure of party registration but each party has a core vote of about 40%, with the remaining 20% being a floating (or swing) vote. That 20% can be stratified further with certain strata at "likely Democrat" or "lean Republican" etc but it is this 20% of the electorate (and in reality less than that at this stage) that is being contested.
    The role of "Independents" in American elections is greatly exaggerated. Many "Independents" are disillusioned Democrats and Republicans who may eventually change parties, or return to their original one.

    No matter what, a Presidential candidate has to persuade large elements, who once voted for the other party, to vote for him or her.
    As a once-moderate Republican now sporting a radical right persona, Romney was always going to find it hard to get Democrats to vote for him. The recent Convention has seen a revival in Democrat enthusiasm for Obama that seemed to be waning a year ago.

    At the moment, the "enthusiasm gap" actually seems to favour the Democrats, something that seems incredible after a year in which it looked as if the economy would sink the President's campaign.

    However, it is not over yet. Romney has a few weeks to turn things around. However, these are weeks into mid to late October in which voters make up their minds.
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  8. #538
    livingstone livingstone is online now
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    If you want some evidence of the impact of Romney's remarks, have a look at his ratings on today's Rasmussen (Rasmussen is where he should be able to find comfort right now, given that they are consistently the most GOP leaning national pollsters). In a poll taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - Obama is up 2. Compare that to a poll taken Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and Obama was down 1.

    That suggests that the video didn't have any impact on Monday (the video didn't come out until Sunday night) and didn't have much impact on Tuesday (it came out late on Monday evening, many Americans won’t have engaged with it until they sat down to watch evening news and satire on Tuesday evening). But the impact on Wednesday was pretty big.

    To understand the size of the shift, you’ve to remember that while the shift is three points out of 1500 voters, i.e. Obama gained 30 voters out of 1500 (2%) and Romney lost 25 voters of out of 1500 (1%). That might not seem that big, but that shift happened on Wednesday alone, when the sample was 500.

    That means that of those polled on Wednesday, Romney lost 25 out of 500 voters (5%) and Obama gained 30 out of 500 (6%). That’s a big shift on a single day which reflected the first full day on which everyone polled will have been fully engaged with the remarks. Now of course that may stabilise back, but if Romney’s down two even with Rasmussen (who don’t poll cellphones and therefore exclude a big chunk of the population who are Dem leaning) it shows that the video is having an impact.

    And if you don’t believe that it is, then see Romney’s new ‘tone’ where he’s come out talking about the 100% and how he’s proud of his healthcare achievements in Massechussetts. His internals must be telling him that he needs to radically and immediately soften his image.
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  9. #539
    Skyrocket Skyrocket is offline
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    The effects of the controversy are being felt in todays Rasmussen poll where Romney is down 2 from a 1 point lead yesterday - nothing major (Romney had been down 5% about 10 days ago), but only 2/3rds have been polled since the controversy broke Monday night so it will take another 1 - 2 days to see the full immediate effect of the controversy on Romney. My prediction is a peak negative of 3 or 4% followed by a swing back next week to have the race roughly level again (+/- 1 or 2%).

    Gallup have just released their results showing a tie, with both on 47% (Gallup Presidential Election Trial Heat Results: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney). 2/7ths of the polling was done after the '47%' controversy so again it will take some days to see how it fully plays out in the Gallup tracking poll.
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  10. #540
    Skyrocket Skyrocket is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by livingstone View Post
    If you want some evidence of the impact of Romney's remarks, have a look at his ratings on today's Rasmussen (Rasmussen is where he should be able to find comfort right now, given that they are consistently the most GOP leaning national pollsters). In a poll taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday - Obama is up 2. Compare that to a poll taken Sunday, Monday and Tuesday and Obama was down 1.
    ...
    Romney was down by 5% over 3 or so days in Rasmussen polls less than two weeks ago. 2% is no big deal - unless it increases over the next few days and is sustained.
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