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About LinkBacksYes the media sold the American people a fraud/hoax/dud/lemon whatever you want to call him, but it is hard to see them falling for it again. 9 months to go.
Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner
Yes the media sold the American people a fraud/hoax/dud/lemon whatever you want to call him, but it is hard to see them falling for it again. 9 months to go.
Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss | Campaign 2012 | Washington Examiner
From the article.
That's a huge "if", just because Obama's approval ratings are below 50% in those states doesn't mean they are going to jump into the arms of Mitt Romney, especially when he continues to dine on his own feet.If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.
"Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." - Mark Twain.
They are still doingit. Romney is even worse than Obama.Originally Posted by rash mulligan
''A basic principle of modern state capitalism is that cost and risk are socialized to the extent possible, while profit is privatized.'' Noam Chomsky
I think a poll like this on a stste by state basis gives a better picture of what might in 9 months time.
The national polling doesn't give as clear a picture.
The link is nonsense.
It's only based on Obama's approval rating.
In the real world, Obama beats Republicans even where he has net negative approval, because people dislike the Repubs even more.
For instance, that article gives Oregon to the Republicans. In the most recent polls in Oregon (Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia), Obama beats Republicans by at least 13 points.
The weakness of the Republicans matters.
While we're at it, consider all the state polls available. Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In the most recent polling, Obama actually beats Mitt Romney in the following states where Obama has negative ratings, by the following margins, winning the following number of electoral votes:
Colorado (47-45) (9 EV)
Florida (49-41) (29 EV)
Iowa (46-39) (7 EV)
Nevada (45.7-39.8) (6 EV)
New Mexico (53-38) (5 EV)
Ohio (49-42) (18 EV)
Pennsylvania (45-41) (20 EV)
Virginia (45-44) (13 EV)
If Obama wins all those, he gets an extra 107 EV. 215 + 107 = 322, he needs 270, he wins.
If Obama loses undecided voters by a margin of 46 points or less, he wins Florida, Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio, giving him an extra 59 EV. 215 + 59 = 274, he wins.
Can Obama win at least 27% of undecided voters? Yes he can. In fact, he'll probably break Romney's numbers down, once he runs ads about how Romney is a job-cutting capitalist. (Fair or unfair criticism, regardless, that'll anger lots of voters. Just like the GOP's attacks in 2004, it doesn't matter whether the Democrats' attacks are fair or not! They will win.)
Think Obama will win it with some positive spin near the end of the campaign tbh
Derp, I forgot Oregon in that list, probably because it's so deeply Democrat that it hardly is worth thinking about a Romney win. A bit like imagining a Labour majority in Clare.
Including Oregon, Mitt Romney needs to win the undecided vote by a margin of 76 points over Obama to win, e.g. 88-12.
Surely more than 1 in 8 undecided voters will choose Obama over Romney.
Voter intention polls are the only ones that matter; all this approval rating stuff is window-dressing.
Anger is an acid that can do more harm to the vessel in which it is stored than to anything on which it is poured. - Mark Twain
+1. You don't even need to get 50% in most states to win. 3rd party candidates will always take 5% or so and if there is a national candidate with a high profile it will be even more.
Obama has been beateng all the GOP candidates in polls over the last month in head to head national polls.
Romney is definitely the closest to him and he has the best chance to beat him with the crucial independent voters in the toss up states that will decide the election.
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