Gallup state by state poll.

[livingstone]

The number 7 also tells its own story. That's the number of points the latest Ohio poll puts Obama ahead of Romney.

[Analyzer]

Guess who owns the Washington Examiner, in which this story was published? Phil Anschutz.

Philip Anschutz - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Good man - full marks for investigation. Just shows that you cannot trust the print media to be objective.

In this country, or in any other.

[KingCash]

What Obama should hope for is a split in the Republican movement or Ron Paul having a crack as an independent. Paul would pick up enbough votes to sink Romney while not getting enough from centre-ground voters to get himself elected, leaving Obama to get through comfortably.

Ron Paul as an independent would sink Romney and would spell another 4 year for Obama but what would be the point? Romney and Obama are exactly the same - it doesn't matter. The only thing keeping Paul away from third party run would be the aspirations of his son, Rand in the future of the GOP. I happen to think that the apple has fallen far from the tree with Rand Paul - besides some minor issues, I think he's not as dedicated to his fathers principles as many would like. So as far as that is concerned, I'd like to see Ron Paul going on the Libertarian ticket.

I think it would be quite offensive to the people that have thrown so much money at this campaign and have an emotional investment in him for him not to go as far as he possibly could.

[H.R. Haldeman]

My favourite polling tool is the RCP aggregator here: RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval.

It has Obama JA/JD at 46%/48, with an average spread of -1.8. Gallup is the outlier on the downside at a -5 spread. The rest range from -4 to +2 (one of the latter is from NBC/WSJ). And as others have mentioned, "Generic Republican" =/ Romney. In a sense, "Generic Republican" is just another way of stating the JA question.

This one's interesting from Politifact, Obama's promise tracker:

PolitiFact | The Obameter: Tracking Obama's Campaign Promises

I make 385 promises kept, compromised on or "in the works". 56 promises broken. 65 are rated as "stalled". Depending whether you include the latter, that is either 76% or 87.3% promises kept. An average of well over 80%. Only rating those marked kept or broken, he is still at 75% kept. His achievements are being mind-bogglingly underrated in my view and I predict his first term will become very highly rated by scholars in years to come. And if he can get unemployment below 8% that would seal it.

Whatever about all that, not as many people will abandon Obama as commentary and polling suggest. He has more than done enough to warrant the 8 years. Ousting an incumbent is actually a very big deal. It is a heavy, heavy boulder to push over the hill. I think Americans factor that into their general sense of how they will vot and I think they'll look at Obama and feel it dishonourable to only give him 4 years. It's a very heavy coat and he wears it just fine.

All of the above notwithstanding Obama having a live boy/dead girl moment or making a gargantuan domestic slip. But let's face it, that doesn't really sound like Obama's style. If there's anyone built to ride "events", it's Obama, who also happens to be a "lucky general". He'll win.