Obama rising in the polls

[EvotingMachine0197]

A brokered Comvention is a possibility now isn't it?

What about Mitch Daniels?

GOP's ray of hope for a brokered convention - HUMAN EVENTS

[imokyrok]

The kind of nonsense that's being attempted in Oklahoma by Republicans (and previously in Mississipi) is incredibly off-putting to most women.



The “Personhood” movement is coming to Oklahoma… | The Lost Ogle

Here's a witty response, a proposed amendment from Constance Johnson, a Democratic member of the Oklahoma state legislature, which would effectively outlaw masturbation:



About my 'spilled semen' amendment to Oklahoma's Personhood bill | Constance Johnson | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

There was a recent bill that was thankfully sidelined with a similar Democrat amendment. The Republican sponsored bill was to make it mandatory to discuss 'Creation Theory' along with The Theory of Evolution in science class. It would have been voted through except for the Democrat who submitted an amendment stating that teachers would have to present origin theories from all the major religions. The GOP couldn't possibly have legislation presenting other religious myths as equal to their own and so it died.

[livingstone]

Presidential Approval Ratings History - Interactive Comparison Graph - WSJ.com

The site above is interesting in comparing approval ratings of various Presidents. What's clear is that approval is not the same as voting intention, but it is useful to see how Obama's approval now stacks up with Bushs in Feb 2004, Clinton's in Feb 1996, Bush Snr's in Feb 1992, Reagan's in Feb 1984, Carter's in Feb 1980, Ford's in Feb 1976, Nixon's in Feb 1972.

Obama's approval right now is around 49% (according to RCP).

What's remarkable is that Reagan, Clinton and Bush Jnr all had similar approval ratings at the beginning of their reelection year (very high forties/very low fifties). Equally noticable is that the one term presidents - Ford, Carter, Bush Snr - all had approval ratings considerably lower than Obama's (low forties, high thirties).

The reason it's relevant is that, although polls show Obama doing well in a match-up with Romney (and others); received wisdom seems to be that his approval ratings are dire and will sink him. So it's quite surprising, given what even pro-Obama perceptions are (that his approval is sunk) to note that he's pretty much on par with Clinton, Reagan and Bush Jnr at this stage in their presidencies - and two of them went on to win re-election very comfortably, and the other went on to win (albeit with less comfort).

[smitchy2]

What about the latest Gallup Poll showing Ron Paul within the margin of error of defeating Obama? Also, a January 16th CNN/ORC Poll showed Paul and Obama in a virtual tie in a general election showdown.

Only pick the good polls. Other polls show him 12 behind.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Paul vs. Obama

Regardless of this he is not doing great in the delegate count and result this week were fairly dissappointing.
So his nomination chances are fairly minimal.

Unless Gingrich or Santorum drop out, it will be Romney.

[livingstone]

Only pick the good polls. Other polls show him 12 behind.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Paul vs. Obama

Regardless of this he is not doing great in the delegate count and result this week were fairly dissappointing.
So his nomination chances are fairly minimal.

Unless Gingrich or Santorum drop out, it will be Romney.

I was actually thinking before (as most were) that Romney is helped by both Santorum and Gingrich staying in the race. I've started to doubt that wisdom. Santorum has a specific appeal in the American mid-west; places like Minnesota and Colorado, and eventually perhaps in the Dakotas, Montana, Nebraska, Idaho, potentially Washington and Oregon if he's lucky. Along with the appalachian states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Now, received wisdom is that if he dropped out, Gingrich would soak up all the Conservative vote and get ahead of Romney.

Likewise, Gingrich has an appeal in the South. He will do well in Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and possibly Texas. Again, the assumption is that if he dropped out, Santorum would win these delegates and get ahead of Romney.

Actually, I think now that Romney is being hindered by both being in the race because they have relatively unique appeals. Without Santorum, I reckon Romney would beat Gingrich in the Mountain west and Ohio and Pennsylvania, and without Gingrich, I reckon he'd stand a good chance against Santorum in the South.

Instead, Romney has to fight a war on two fronts - after SC he had to focus his fire on Gingrich, leaving the way clear for Santorum to win last Tuesday. Now he'll focus his fire on Santorum, leaving the way clear for a Gingrich Southern comeback. Dividing delegates between two candidates mean one is almost certain to get a majority (discounting Paul, wo will not be the nominee). But dividing them between three with any degree of equality means Romney has less chance of getting a majority before the convention, and has no chance of getting a majority while both Romney and Santorum are in the race.

So while its been assumed that Romney is assisted by both being in the race, actually I think its the opposite - the longer it's a three horse race, the worse for Romney.

[Sangreel]

My cash is on O'bummer winning. I don't care for the guy, but i really don't think the GOP has put up a person who can win......

[owedtojoy]

Presidential Approval Ratings History - Interactive Comparison Graph - WSJ.com

The site above is interesting in comparing approval ratings of various Presidents. What's clear is that approval is not the same as voting intention, but it is useful to see how Obama's approval now stacks up with Bushs in Feb 2004, Clinton's in Feb 1996, Bush Snr's in Feb 1992, Reagan's in Feb 1984, Carter's in Feb 1980, Ford's in Feb 1976, Nixon's in Feb 1972.

Obama's approval right now is around 49% (according to RCP).

What's remarkable is that Reagan, Clinton and Bush Jnr all had similar approval ratings at the beginning of their reelection year (very high forties/very low fifties). Equally noticable is that the one term presidents - Ford, Carter, Bush Snr - all had approval ratings considerably lower than Obama's (low forties, high thirties).

The reason it's relevant is that, although polls show Obama doing well in a match-up with Romney (and others); received wisdom seems to be that his approval ratings are dire and will sink him. So it's quite surprising, given what even pro-Obama perceptions are (that his approval is sunk) to note that he's pretty much on par with Clinton, Reagan and Bush Jnr at this stage in their presidencies - and two of them went on to win re-election very comfortably, and the other went on to win (albeit with less comfort).

"Another Jimmy Carter" was the taunt thrown at Obama six months ago - I have been watching the polls fairly consistently, and Obama never really looked like dipping into the low '30s like Carter. For a while, it did seem as if he was not going to see the high '40s again, but Gallup now have him at 49%. He is at a level to give him a good shot at re-election like Reagan and Clinton, barring negative "events".

[midlander12]

I was actually thinking before (as most were) that Romney is helped by both Santorum and Gingrich staying in the race. I've started to doubt that wisdom. Santorum has a specific appeal in the American mid-west; places like Minnesota and Colorado, and eventually perhaps in the Dakotas, Montana, Nebraska, Idaho, potentially Washington and Oregon if he's lucky. Along with the appalachian states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Now, received wisdom is that if he dropped out, Gingrich would soak up all the Conservative vote and get ahead of Romney.

Likewise, Gingrich has an appeal in the South. He will do well in Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and possibly Texas. Again, the assumption is that if he dropped out, Santorum would win these delegates and get ahead of Romney.

Actually, I think now that Romney is being hindered by both being in the race because they have relatively unique appeals. Without Santorum, I reckon Romney would beat Gingrich in the Mountain west and Ohio and Pennsylvania, and without Gingrich, I reckon he'd stand a good chance against Santorum in the South.

Instead, Romney has to fight a war on two fronts - after SC he had to focus his fire on Gingrich, leaving the way clear for Santorum to win last Tuesday. Now he'll focus his fire on Santorum, leaving the way clear for a Gingrich Southern comeback. Dividing delegates between two candidates mean one is almost certain to get a majority (discounting Paul, wo will not be the nominee). But dividing them between three with any degree of equality means Romney has less chance of getting a majority before the convention, and has no chance of getting a majority while both Romney and Santorum are in the race.

So while its been assumed that Romney is assisted by both being in the race, actually I think its the opposite - the longer it's a three horse race, the worse for Romney.

I agree. What is happening (and I would include the Paul factor in this) is that the conservative vote is being maximised while Romney is left looking like an isolated minority 'moderate' - he's also increasingly dependent on a good Mormon turnout (see Nevada) making him look more and more 'the Mormon candidate' which is an issue for many evangelicals however much they deny it.

The only ones who thought the GOP were going to run away with 2012 were the "Obama is toast' neantherdals on this site and elswhere who assumed that the Democrats and their coalition of minorities would curl up and die after their 2010 drubbing. In reality if the Republicans continue the current freakshow they will p*** off everyone outside their White Conservative Christian tent. It's not really the best idea because demographically this is possibly the last election they can win as 'the white party'. In case there were any doubts about 'white liberal' drift to the GOP, the whole contraception thing has come along to be a bit of backbone into them and show the GOP in 'altar-crawling' mode.

[locke]

New opinion polls comparing with all possible Republicans

Poll: Obama holds edge over GOP hopefuls - Political Hotsheet - CBS News

It runs from Obama leading, but result in play against Romney and possibly Santorum to an 84 style landslide against Gingrich.

[Yongwang]

Mitt Romney is a perfectly electable candidate.

The entire Republican base hates Mitt Romney though, the establishment want Romney to win though since he is just like Obama. Obama and Romney are pretty much the same person, they're both big government socialists.