Oh wisest mods, please ensure this thread ascendeth mightly upon high in to thy UK GE 2017 forum...
One of the more interesting aspects of May's calling of the vote yesterday was the slew of opinion polls that coincided with the announcement. There are seven weeks to go which means that for those of us who are interested in such things, we will see a huge number of data points over the run up to the day itself. UK poll companies will no doubt be working overtime to get it right after Brexit, and being a UK election we get to witness the antics of Lynton Crosby and other elite election strategists putting their dark arts in to practice.
To get a taste of what happened last time, this article is a good start:
So...where do we stand?
As of yesterday:
Wiki's poll of polls:Prof John Curtice from Strathclyde University conducted the analysis and said Labour’s collapse under Jeremy Corbyn helped explain the results.
A recent poll of polls put the Conservatives on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 27 per cent – a Tory lead of 16 points. Ukip and the Lib Dems were both on 10 per cent.
Guardian/ICM poll gives Conservatives 18-point lead over Labour
ICM carried out a state of the parties poll over the weekend. These are the first polling figures to be published since Theresa May’s announcement, although the fieldwork was carried out beforehand. Here are the figures.
Conservatives: 44% (up 1 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)
Labour: 26% (up 1)
Ukip: 11% (no change)
Lib Dems: 10% (down 1)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Conservative lead: 18 points (no change)
ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative sample of 2,052 adults aged 18+ online from 14 to 17 April 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.Seven weeks will be an eternity in opinion polling...fun times ahead! 11% to 21% of a Tory lead is a massive variance and we're only getting started. Also hat tip to Statsman and his other Opinion polling thread and how we should interpret polls:The Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory according to a string of recent polls. A poll of polls conducted in March by Electoral Calculus gives the Tories a 112-seat majority in Commons. It was based on more than 10,000 voters.
A round of weekend polls made it look even better for May.
A ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday gave the Tories a stonking 21% lead over Labour.
Opinion Polls: Caveat Emptor