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  1. #61
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    Has anyone asked him how old he thinks the earth is?
    Aside from his "Kumbaya" streak, I would have a lot of time for Farron. He has taken a principled stand on BREXIT, which neither of the other two parties did, and has argued his case forcefully and fairly.

    You may get, I dont know, a mini-renaissance for the LDs and I am basing that on the fact that the last Tory majority in 2015 was secured on the back of their seats, not Labours, because folk were going to punish the LDs for going into coalition with the Tories and sacrificing some of their key pledges, such as the abolition of tuition fees. Its possible that those "soft Tory" constituencies will be pissed and mad now and ready to revert.

    But that was hung round Cleggs neck. Interestingly enough, hes the only one from the Gang standing in 2017 - Cameron and Osborne have folded their tents and slipped away.
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  2. #62
    dalyp dalyp is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post
    And the LibDem leader is an evangelical Christian who thinks homosexuality is a sin.
    That would secure him 30% of the vote stateside, any traction to be had in the UK with playing the God card, can't see Corbyn pulling that off either
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  3. #63
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline
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    FWIW

    Yougov 18-19 April
    How are Leave/Remain voters going to vote?

    All voters
    CON 48% LAB 24% LIB DEM 12% UKIP 7%
    Remain voters
    CON 31% LAB 34% LIB DEM 22% UKIP 1%
    Leave voters
    CON 66% LAB 14% LIB DEM 3% UKIP 13%

    So thats 31% of Remain voters sticking with the Cons.
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  4. #64
    blokesbloke blokesbloke is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Eagle of the Ninth View Post
    FWIW

    Yougov 18-19 April
    How are Leave/Remain voters going to vote?

    All voters
    CON 48% LAB 24% LIB DEM 12% UKIP 7%
    Remain voters
    CON 31% LAB 34% LIB DEM 22% UKIP 1%
    Leave voters
    CON 66% LAB 14% LIB DEM 3% UKIP 13%

    So thats 31% of Remain voters sticking with the Cons.
    Fascinated to meet the 1% of Remain voters who plan to vote UKIP!

    That's the glorious thing about elections, you'll never be able to truly predict them because human beings are so weird.

    I think people really do vote on whether they liked someone's tie, or because of an obscure minor policy a party promised in 1973 which they never followed up on so they vowed never to vote for them again, or because the a candidate didn't shut their gate when canvassing in 1984.
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  5. #65
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by blokesbloke View Post
    Fascinated to meet the 1% of Remain voters who plan to vote UKIP!

    That's the glorious thing about elections, you'll never be able to truly predict them because human beings are so weird.

    I think people really do vote on whether they liked someone's tie, or because of an obscure minor policy a party promised in 1973 which they never followed up on so they vowed never to vote for them again, or because the a candidate didn't shut their gate when canvassing in 1984.
    I agree. Thats why I dont really believe this GE is about re-running BREXIT unless the parties insist on making it that, and they wont, I think.

    The reality is people are going totally blind into this election because they dont know and wont be able to digest any of the manifesto promises. One thing you can take for real is May will tear up every single pledge Cameron made to triple lock pensions, not raise NICs etc and people wont realise. She knows that too. They will vote for her and she will have her mandate, but its NOT about squaring up to the EU.
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  6. #66
    devoutcapitalist devoutcapitalist is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Eagle of the Ninth View Post
    FWIW

    Yougov 18-19 April
    How are Leave/Remain voters going to vote?

    All voters
    CON 48% LAB 24% LIB DEM 12% UKIP 7%
    Remain voters
    CON 31% LAB 34% LIB DEM 22% UKIP 1%
    Leave voters
    CON 66% LAB 14% LIB DEM 3% UKIP 13%

    So thats 31% of Remain voters sticking with the Cons.
    The Lib Dems can potentially eat into the Labour Remain vote over the next 7 weeks, the Tories on 66% amongst leave voters, they have certainly taken back a good chunk of the vote that they lost to UKIP under Cameron.
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  7. #67
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by devoutcapitalist View Post
    The Lib Dems can potentially eat into the Labour Remain vote over the next 7 weeks, the Tories on 66% amongst leave voters, they have certainly taken back a good chunk of the vote that they lost to UKIP under Cameron.
    Unless they have a serious pact involving tactical voting, which will not happen, any attempt to leech off Labour remain voters into the LD camp will only split the anti-Tory vote and let the Blue come through the middle.

    Thats how FPTP works.
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  8. #68
    toconn toconn is offline

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    Quote Originally Posted by devoutcapitalist View Post
    The Lib Dems can potentially eat into the Labour Remain vote over the next 7 weeks, the Tories on 66% amongst leave voters, they have certainly taken back a good chunk of the vote that they lost to UKIP under Cameron.
    Mainly by becoming UKIP plus . Simple plan by the likes of May and more importantly the hard right Tories who seem to have the whip hand .
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  9. #69
    Prof Honeydew Prof Honeydew is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by blokesbloke View Post
    Fascinated to meet the 1% of Remain voters who plan to vote UKIP!
    Here's one of them.
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  10. #70
    hiding behind a poster hiding behind a poster is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by toconn View Post
    Mainly by becoming UKIP plus . Simple plan by the likes of May and more importantly the hard right Tories who seem to have the whip hand .
    I think May's plan is to take the whip away from the hard right Tories, in particular from the most Brexity of the Brexiteers. With a majority of 17 she's had to talk their language in order to build up her cred with them, whereas with a majority of 100-plus she can be a lot more centrist as she won't need them.
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