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  1. #21
    Wascurito Wascurito is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by Breanainn View Post
    YouGov poll:

    Con 48% (+4)
    Lab 24% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-3)

    Electoral Calculus Forecast:

    Con 420 (+89)
    Lab 143 (-89)
    SNP 56 (-)
    Lib Dem 9 (+1 on GE)
    Plaid Cymru 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
    UKIP switching to Tory because UKIP has no reason to exist.
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  2. #22
    The Eagle of the Ninth The Eagle of the Ninth is offline
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    Back on topic

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...one-conclusion

    But note:

    One of the few psephologists to emerge from the last election with their reputation enhanced was Prof John Curtice, whose accurate BBC exit poll confirming a Tory outright victory led to more than one politician’s jaw dropping,

    Following Tuesday’s snap election announcement he said “there is no doubt that the Conservatives are in a strong position in the polls”, citing the recent run of surveys giving the Tories an average of 42% of the vote to Labour’s 27% as “enough to give Theresa May a substantial majority”.


    However, he told the BBC he had two words of caution. The first was to note it was now much harder for either of the two main parties to win a landslide, ie a 100-plus seat majority, as Scotland as well as Northern Ireland were no longer part of the two-party battle. “I would be surprised if the SNP did not hold on to the seats they won two years ago,” he said.


    His other word of caution was to note that although Labour was in a dire position in the opinion polls a lot of its MPs occupied “safe seats” that would survive even substantial adverse swings. He also warned that if the the polls narrowed during the campaign, particularly if May argued for an endorsement of a hard Brexit, then her majority might be smaller than she currently hopes.
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  3. #23
    GJG GJG is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by making waves View Post
    The issues of the election will be dictated by whether Corbyn deals with the Blairites, puts forward a radical left programme - and stops the Blairites sabotaging the election campaign.


    The Blairites are actually in a catch 22 - after two years of sabotaging Corbyn's leadership - and wanting to see the LP take a hammering so that they can shaft Corbyn - their antics could result in a whole pile of them losing their political careers as they are dumped it of parliament.

    So, to be clear, you think that the key to Labour not performing catastrophically winning the election is intensifying the civil war in the Labour party in the heat of an election campaign?


    I have sympathy with your point of view that the bulk of the PLP has not 'played fair' and accepted Corbyn's victory within the party's electoral system, and there is no doubt that (up to now) Corbyn is wildly popular with the party membership, but you don't seem to have any analysis as to why they have done that, and just waving your hand and saying that it's because they are Blairites doesn't explain motivation.


    It's obvious to me, and I suppose to them, that Corbyn's popularity in the party is a mirror-image of his toxicity among swing voters. They are rebelling because they know that they canít hold their own seats under him, much less win more to get a majority and put them into government.


    Corbyn is the preferred prime minister of just 14 per cent of Brits, 40 percentage points behind the exceedingly modest talents of Theresa May. Disastrous and all as their rating is, Labour is actually outperforming their leader by 10 clear percentage points.

    What is your evidence that the only thing making such a large swathe of British voters support the Tories, and restraining them from a full-throated demand for red revolution is internal squabbling within the PLP?
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  4. #24
    gijoe gijoe is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Breanainn View Post
    YouGov poll:

    Con 48% (+4)
    Lab 24% (+1)
    Lib Dems 12% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-3)

    Electoral Calculus Forecast:

    Con 420 (+89)
    Lab 143 (-89)
    SNP 56 (-)
    Lib Dem 9 (+1 on GE)
    Plaid Cymru 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
    A 190 seat majority!!
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  5. #25
    gijoe gijoe is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wascurito View Post
    UKIP switching to Tory because UKIP has no reason to exist.
    That's what this election just might come down to. UKIPers migrating enmasse to the Cons.
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  6. #26
    ShinnerBot No.32564844524 ShinnerBot No.32564844524 is offline
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    Voting Intention: Conservatives 48%, Labour 24% (18-19 Apr)





    The first YouGov/Times voting intention figures following Theresa May's shock calls for a snap election sees a significant increase in voting intention for the Conservatives who are up four points to 48%. Labour meanwhile are on 24% (from 23% last week), giving the Tories a 24 point lead.

    These results represent the highest vote share for the Conservatives since May 2008, and is also the strongest lead for the Tories since that period.


    Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats remain on 12%, whilst UKIP's 7% is lowest since January 2013 (from 10% last week), and votes for other parties stand at 9% (from 10%).

    Theresa May continues to be the favoured choice for best Prime Minister, with 54% of people preferring her to Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader is backed by 15% of voters, whilst 31% don't know.

    Looks like the Tories are getting the start they want.
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  7. #27
    blinding blinding is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wascurito View Post
    UKIP switching to Tory because UKIP has no reason to exist.
    You couldn't see them going to the labour party and that is the labour party led by anyone..........

    The labour party of Blair, Brown, Miliband, and Corbyn have lost touch with the interests of the people they need to vote for them......

    Political suicide....

    Who are the former labour base to vote for.......probably no one.......

    If Corbyn gets a hearing he may do better than expected . He is unlikely to get a hearing and his continued support for the immigration of the last 20 years is suicidal in any case.

    A party that genuinely looks after the interests of British working people and explains clearly that because the country has had 20 years of open immigration (pretty much ) needs to stop immigration for a period of 10 years to see how that works might have a chance.

    Labour are not going to do that....so probably no chance.........
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  8. #28
    blinding blinding is online now

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShinnerBot No.32564844524 View Post
    Looks like the Tories are getting the start they want.
    " Don't Know " has a serious chance there..............
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  9. #29
    statsman statsman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    I loves me some number crunching... Chapeau.

    Interesting discussion on rte news at one as to how a ten point lead won't necessarily mean a massive increase in the Tory majority, largely because Scotland is gone to both labour and the tories, and the fact that a seven point lead only garnered a 12 seat majority last time. Very few hard labour seats will change hands. And a rise in the fortune of the libdems is likely to come from remain soft tories (should such a rise actually occur). Throw in pending electoral fraud charges which may, or may not be pending, and some labour pols remembering that the tories and not corbyn are the enemy, and anything could happen in the next seven weeks.
    Another major factor will be the number (if any) of UKIP candidates. That could be ~10% of polled voters with nobody to vote for.
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  10. #30
    statsman statsman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShinnerBot No.32564844524 View Post
    Oh wisest mods, please ensure this thread ascendeth mightly upon high in to thy UK GE 2017 forum...

    One of the more interesting aspects of May's calling of the vote yesterday was the slew of opinion polls that coincided with the announcement. There are seven weeks to go which means that for those of us who are interested in such things, we will see a huge number of data points over the run up to the day itself. UK poll companies will no doubt be working overtime to get it right after Brexit, and being a UK election we get to witness the antics of Lynton Crosby and other elite election strategists putting their dark arts in to practice.

    To get a taste of what happened last time, this article is a good start:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lectually-lazy

    So...where do we stand?

    As of yesterday:



    Wiki's poll of polls:







    Seven weeks will be an eternity in opinion polling...fun times ahead! 11% to 21% of a Tory lead is a massive variance and we're only getting started. Also hat tip to Statsman and his other Opinion polling thread and how we should interpret polls:
    Opinion Polls: Caveat Emptor
    Hat tip reciprocated, with interest.
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