Back on topic
One of the few psephologists to emerge from the last election with their reputation enhanced was Prof John Curtice, whose accurate BBC exit poll confirming a Tory outright victory led to more than one politician’s jaw dropping,
Following Tuesday’s snap election announcement he said “there is no doubt that the Conservatives are in a strong position in the polls”, citing the recent run of surveys giving the Tories an average of 42% of the vote to Labour’s 27% as “enough to give Theresa May a substantial majority”.
However, he told the BBC he had two words of caution. The first was to note it was now much harder for either of the two main parties to win a landslide, ie a 100-plus seat majority, as Scotland as well as Northern Ireland were no longer part of the two-party battle. “I would be surprised if the SNP did not hold on to the seats they won two years ago,” he said.
His other word of caution was to note that although Labour was in a dire position in the opinion polls a lot of its MPs occupied “safe seats” that would survive even substantial adverse swings. He also warned that if the the polls narrowed during the campaign, particularly if May argued for an endorsement of a hard Brexit, then her majority might be smaller than she currently hopes.
So, to be clear, you think that the key to Labour
not performing catastrophicallywinning the election is intensifying the civil war in the Labour party in the heat of an election campaign?
I have sympathy with your point of view that the bulk of the PLP has not 'played fair' and accepted Corbyn's victory within the party's electoral system, and there is no doubt that (up to now) Corbyn is wildly popular with the party membership, but you don't seem to have any analysis as to why they have done that, and just waving your hand and saying that it's because they are Blairites doesn't explain motivation.
It's obvious to me, and I suppose to them, that Corbyn's popularity in the party is a mirror-image of his toxicity among swing voters. They are rebelling because they know that they canít hold their own seats under him, much less win more to get a majority and put them into government.
Corbyn is the preferred prime minister of just 14 per cent of Brits, 40 percentage points behind the exceedingly modest talents of Theresa May. Disastrous and all as their rating is, Labour is actually outperforming their leader by 10 clear percentage points.
What is your evidence that the only thing making such a large swathe of British voters support the Tories, and restraining them from a full-throated demand for red revolution is internal squabbling within the PLP?
Looks like the Tories are getting the start they want.Voting Intention: Conservatives 48%, Labour 24% (18-19 Apr)
The first YouGov/Times voting intention figures following Theresa May's shock calls for a snap election sees a significant increase in voting intention for the Conservatives who are up four points to 48%. Labour meanwhile are on 24% (from 23% last week), giving the Tories a 24 point lead.
These results represent the highest vote share for the Conservatives since May 2008, and is also the strongest lead for the Tories since that period.
Elsewhere the Liberal Democrats remain on 12%, whilst UKIP's 7% is lowest since January 2013 (from 10% last week), and votes for other parties stand at 9% (from 10%).
Theresa May continues to be the favoured choice for best Prime Minister, with 54% of people preferring her to Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader is backed by 15% of voters, whilst 31% don't know.
The labour party of Blair, Brown, Miliband, and Corbyn have lost touch with the interests of the people they need to vote for them......
Who are the former labour base to vote for.......probably no one.......
If Corbyn gets a hearing he may do better than expected . He is unlikely to get a hearing and his continued support for the immigration of the last 20 years is suicidal in any case.
A party that genuinely looks after the interests of British working people and explains clearly that because the country has had 20 years of open immigration (pretty much ) needs to stop immigration for a period of 10 years to see how that works might have a chance.
Labour are not going to do that....so probably no chance.........