Sinn Fein spies its chance of by-election seat

[pete2]

FFail TD Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher's entry into the European elections will cause mixed emotions in Sinn Fein.The former MEP and junior minister will be favourite to retain the Fianna Fail seat in the North-West constituency, sparking a by-election in Tanaiste Mary Coughlan's constituency.
Mr Gallagher's entry into the race will deal a blow to the European election chances of Sinn Fein's Padraig MacLochlainn. But his party colleague, Senator Pearse Doherty, will fancy his chances in a subsequent by-election...

Sinn Fein spies its chance of by-election seat - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

[adamirer]

I wonder can the cope co-opt someone immediately upon winning a seat...? Anyhow, expect the cope to come 2nd of the FFs with all core party voters asked to vote for Mooney

[AndrewM]

DL were quite handy at picking up byelection seats, so SF should do well

[mccafferty cat]

The Shinners would have a strong chance here, but I wouldn't get over-confident. Time after time we've seen them do well on No.1 votes, only to be starved of transfers.

Pearse Doherty (2004) and Padraic McLochlainn (2007) fell victim to this

[SFInbhear]

Doherty would be in a strong position if a bye-election was called. I could see the other parties struggle to get a strong candidate which would have full party support. Over the past year their has been divisions in Fianna Fail in the Cope's area and this would have a bad effect. Also Fine Gael may struggle to have a strong candidate as their was disputes at the last GE, hence why McGinley made a U-Turn. Also Fine Gael's candidate would come from the Donegal EA which would give a large number of McGinley's votes in Gweedore to Doherty, putting him in a strong position. Don't think the Cope has much chance in Europe though and its probably nothing more than an attempt to harm MacLochlainn.

[edwin]

Doherty would be in a strong position if a bye-election was called. I could see the other parties struggle to get a strong candidate which would have full party support. Over the past year their has been divisions in Fianna Fail in the Cope's area and this would have a bad effect. Also Fine Gael may struggle to have a strong candidate as their was disputes at the last GE, hence why McGinley made a U-Turn. Also Fine Gael's candidate would come from the Donegal EA which would give a large number of McGinley's votes in Gweedore to Doherty, putting him in a strong position. Don't think the Cope has much chance in Europe though and its probably nothing more than an attempt to harm MacLochlainn.

Writing off Pat The Cope is a sign of naivete I'm afraid. I'd frankly be amazed if he doesn't take a seat and all the publicity with Paschal Mooney will do them both good.

I disagree with your by-election analysis for a number of reasons. For Doherty to have a chance in a by-election then FF would have to come third which is pretty unlikely in DSW regardless of divisions. FGers would rather cut their own throat than have a SF TD and their transfers would (very reluctantly and while holding a crucifix) go to FF. Dinny's amazing vote in 2007 didn't come out of nowhere.

Pearse Doherty and Brian O Domhnaill are both extremely over-rated to be honest, and with BOD likely to struggle somewhat because he's p**sed all the councillors off, I wouldn't rule out an FG surprise. Keep an eye on Mairead Nic Suibhne. If she has a good locals result she's Dinny's natural successor and would probably be the candidate.

[seanciaran]

It's patently obvious that Sinn Féin's position within the 26 county body politic will be enhanced substantially over the coming two years. Sinn Féin are the party of change. Unlike the three conservative parties (Lab., blueshirts and FF) Sinn Féin is a vibrant, all Ireland party with a lot of talented and young candidates. The choice for the electorate has never been clearer. A vote for any of the three conservative parties is a vote for the same old story, for corruption and ineptitude. A vote for Sinn Féin is a vote for change, a vote for good government and of course a vote to end partition.

[The Irish Agent]

correct me if i'm wrong


if a Sitting TD is elected as a MEP, can he/she then give the seat to someone on the B List?

[SFInbhear]

Writing off Pat The Cope is a sign of naivete I'm afraid. I'd frankly be amazed if he doesn't take a seat and all the publicity with Paschal Mooney will do them both good.

I disagree with your by-election analysis for a number of reasons. For Doherty to have a chance in a by-election then FF would have to come third which is pretty unlikely in DSW regardless of divisions. FGers would rather cut their own throat than have a SF TD and their transfers would (very reluctantly and while holding a crucifix) go to FF. Dinny's amazing vote in 2007 didn't come out of nowhere.

Pearse Doherty and Brian O Domhnaill are both extremely over-rated to be honest, and with BOD likely to struggle somewhat because he's p**sed all the councillors off, I wouldn't rule out an FG surprise. Keep an eye on Mairead Nic Suibhne. If she has a good locals result she's Dinny's natural successor and would probably be the candidate.

Fair point but as everybody knows in Donegal SW, the Gweedore side of the Gweebarra always keeps the vote down that side of the county. Worse kept secret in Donegal politics! So with the Fine Gael candidate going to come from either the Donegal EA or Finn Valley, Doherty should pick up alot of McGinley's votes as I cant see O'Domhnaill getting a Fianna Fail nomination as it would be unpopular amongst grassroots and most Cllrs. If either FG or FF chose their candidate in Finn Valley, they would have a good chance. But as I mentioned before, their isnt any strong candidates in either side that stand out as potential candidates. If their is a bye-election expect to see a few Independants running.

[factual]

It's patently obvious that Sinn Féin's position within the 26 county body politic will be enhanced substantially over the coming two years. Sinn Féin are the party of change. Unlike the three conservative parties (Lab., blueshirts and FF) Sinn Féin is a vibrant, all Ireland party with a lot of talented and young candidates.

Excellent points - agree 110%.