Sinn Fein Local Elections 2009 - Breakthrough?

[An Ordinary Man]

I have been examining some of the count details of elections gone by and it appears quite commonly that Sinn Fein rarely top the poll but more interesting is the fact that they often just fall short of been elected. Why is this? Can they make a breakthrough in these elections to boost their representation throughout the country?

[setanta]

No.

[more leters to make up the minimum post length]

[nonpartyboy]

Their immigration policy means SF are only going one way,backwards.

[mccafferty cat]

SF are polling BELOW the level they were at from January-June 2004.

Any notion that they are going to make a breakthrough is sheer fantasy

[Eorna]

Their immigration policy means SF are only going one way,backwards.

Basically thats it. There is too much champagne socialism.

[JollyRedGiant]

Sinn Fein will make gains in this election - not substantial gains but gains none the less. It's not going to be too difficult as FF are going to take a thumping and every other party (with the exception of the Greens) will benefit.

[An Ordinary Man]

I'm not saying that they will or that they might, I am just interested in the fact that they seem to fall just short in alot of elections often falling victim to a FF or FG running mate. With FF expected to fare badly, is it your opinion that the other parties are better placed to gain the final seats that FF should lose?

[JollyRedGiant]

I'm not saying that they will or that they might, I am just interested in the fact that they seem to fall just short in alot of elections often falling victim to a FF or FG running mate. With FF expected to fare badly, is it your opinion that the other parties are better placed to gain the final seats that FF should lose?

Depends on where it is - SF consistantly struggle with transfers - but SF will pick up some disaffected FF voters that wouldn't dream of going to FG (the old republican thing).

[Eorna]

I'm not saying that they will or that they might, I am just interested in the fact that they seem to fall just short in alot of elections often falling victim to a FF or FG running mate. With FF expected to fare badly, is it your opinion that the other parties are better placed to gain the final seats that FF should lose?

The scenario where the poll high but get no seats, is because the party has always been let down by its ability to get transfers.The other parties would have sweeper candidates to ensure that each area, will transfer votes. It should be interesting to see how this develops in the upcoming election.

[An Ordinary Man]

From examining the previous elections I also noted that when a SF candidate was eliminated, most often their transfers went to FF. What is the relationship between these two parties?