Can demographics deliver a United Ireland?

[Indyjoe]

Many people now look to the continuing increase of the nationalist population to bring about a united Ireland.

At the moment it seems that its about 24% regard themselves as nationalist, 38% regard themselves as unionists, and 35% as neither
(Times Survey 2003 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey)

It seems 30% of the catholic population are not in favour of unification.

And asked what they would like the future of the north to be, 23% would be in favour of the republic, while 59% are in favour of the union (The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2004)

So if in 20 yrs or so the nationalist population begins to equal the unionist, it wouldnt be a case of simply convincing a few unionists to jump ship, we would also have to convince people who regard themselves as nationalists that their future is in a free Ireland.
And as normalisation continues in the north, will people not be more and more content with the status quo?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_o ... rn_Ireland

[Whig]

I hope it doesn't happen simply because of a demographic shift, I'd like to see a proper attempt at reaching a consensus with all traditions in the island.

[Ciaran]

i have alway thought the demographic argument to be a poor one. It is my personal opinion that the current process aims to expand the catholic middle class and provide long lasting stablity. As we all know no section is more conservative than middle class catholics/nationalists and if they can have an Irish dimension to British rule then i believe they are less likely to upset the status quo. Thats just my opinion.

[holdini]

A UI can only happen with a revival in the Protestant Republican tradition in the North; many of the actions of the PIRA campaign didn't exactly help that cause....

[Trojanhorse]

But isn't the protestant popoulation in decline in the Northern half of this country??
Economics is what will create a UI not an ideological belief.

[Ciaran]

I would doubt that there is any significant difference in the birth/death rates between protestants and catholics but i could be wrong anyone any stats?

[32]

It would be unfortunate for Irish unity to come about via a sectarian head count, after all, that is how partition occured in the first place.

There is also the crass assumption that every 6 county Catholic is automatically Nationalist, and every 6 county Protestant is automatically Unionist.

And that's before we consider the new Irish...

[DSCH]

A UI can only happen with a revival in the Protestant Republican tradition in the North; many of the actions of the PIRA campaign didn't exactly help that cause....

Tom Pauline for president!

[Ciaran]

I consider it. voting for him that is.

[ireland2004]

I remember being bored in school in upper sixth and looking at demographics and coming to the coclusion that between 2010 and 2020 approximatly 200,000 unionists will die wheras approximatly 75,000 nationalists will... I don't remember how I came to that conclusion but if it's accurate then it's a step in the right direction.