Can demographics deliver a United Ireland?

[stringjack]

The key is to assist unionists in separating their own sense of identity from that of the island of Britain so that they can clearly perceive the requirement upon them to take control of their own destinies.

[Indyjoe]

But its not is it....

thats hardly the point. If you think loyalists will change their allegiance and sense of identity merely for a better economy, then you (as a member of the brown envelope party) would surely jump at the chance of switching your allegiance and sense of identity for money?

I believe you could find age demographics for religion, but not for political affiliation.

Do you have any statistics to prove me wrong

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_o ... rn_Ireland

[JCSkinner]

Once again, emoticons are not an argument, nor a coherent response to an argument.
Would you like to attempt to formulate an objection to what I wrote? As an Irish nationalist, I believe that my fellow Irishmen in the six counties deserve and desperately need to take control of how where they live is run, given the appalling results of British rule.
I believe that were it not for the fact that an emotional attachment to Britain clouds their political analysis, my fellow Irishmen in the six counties would soon be able to establish that any continuation of British rule is not in their interest.
The process of negotiating some form of identity which acknowledges their own espoused differences while at the same time liberating them from the straitjacket of colony status is a difficult one for them. Possibly things like the concoction of an Ulster Scots identity could assist this process. Equally, perhaps mere reliance on religion as an expression of that difference could end up being sufficient.
But when they feel self-confident enough to step out from the baleful shadow of British rule, then we will be able to begin negotiating the format of their entry to an all-island nation, as of course, an independent NI would not be viable.

[ireland2004]

I remember being bored in school in upper sixth and looking at demographics and coming to the coclusion that between 2010 and 2020 approximatly 200,000 unionists will die wheras approximatly 75,000 nationalists will... I don't remember how I came to that conclusion but if it's accurate then it's a step in the right direction.

Uninists or Protestants :

I believe you could find age demographics for religion, but not for political affiliation.

Do you have any statistics to prove me wrong :

IIRC I took a rough precentage of the Protestant population and a rough precentage of the Catholic population and worked out how many of each would be unionist/nationalist based on that... it wasn't really a serious study into the future demographics of the six counties... just something I was doing whilst bored in the computer suite. 8)

[Nils]

I remember being bored in school in upper sixth and looking at demographics and coming to the coclusion that between 2010 and 2020 approximatly 200,000 unionists will die wheras approximatly 75,000 nationalists will... I don't remember how I came to that conclusion but if it's accurate then it's a step in the right direction.

This is Tim Pat Coogan count-the-Catholics style analysis. But anyhow let's say for a moment that the numbers of Nationalists and Unionists in Northern Ireland did even out. What would the climate be like? I get the feeling at the moment that the relative peace is partly because both sides know that the constitutional status of the province is not in doubt in the short to medium term. But if this became more uncertain...can you imagine what it might be like if the two communities were running neck-and-neck and a referendum was tomorrow with the nationalists looking for 50% plus 1 for unification?

That's twenty years away maybe. And there are many alternative outcomes. But I think it's a worrying possibility that we could have two polarised communities looking to win this sort of zero-sum game by the narrowest of margins.

Just like the shinners weren't won over to unionism despite living off the fat of the (British) land!

Yes - they're loyal to the half-crown but not to the Crown.

[FutureTaoiseach]

A UI can only happen with a revival in the Protestant Republican tradition in the North; many of the actions of the PIRA campaign didn't exactly help that cause....

Tom Pauline for president!

Paulin.

And as I understand it he is a Unionist, albeit one who wants the UK to become a Republic.

[stringjack]

Once again, emoticons are not an argument, nor a coherent response to an argument.
Would you like to attempt to formulate an objection to what I wrote? As an Irish nationalist, I believe that my fellow Irishmen in the six counties deserve and desperately need to take control of how where they live is run, given the appalling results of British rule.
I believe that were it not for the fact that an emotional attachment to Britain clouds their political analysis, my fellow Irishmen in the six counties would soon be able to establish that any continuation of British rule is not in their interest.
The process of negotiating some form of identity which acknowledges their own espoused differences while at the same time liberating them from the straitjacket of colony status is a difficult one for them. Possibly things like the concoction of an Ulster Scots identity could assist this process. Equally, perhaps mere reliance on religion as an expression of that difference could end up being sufficient.
But when they feel self-confident enough to step out from the baleful shadow of British rule, then we will be able to begin negotiating the format of their entry to an all-island nation, as of course, an independent NI would not be viable.

Indeed, the whole position is based on an asymmetric rationality. It treats the actions of nationalists who react violently to the denial of their national aspirations (and of unionists who react oppressively to the nationalists) as some kind of force of nature, unamenable to rational constraint (very Marxist and all). However, it then thinks that unionists, faced with this natural reality, should rationally concede that a united Ireland would be in their best interests, which leaves open the question, why don't nationalists realise that acquiescing to the the Union would be in their best interests?

[JCSkinner]

I already addressed that point. Unionism as a political ideology is flawed at conception by its 'at all costs' attitude to a deeply dysfunctional and colonial relationship with Britain. We have already discussed the forms that sysfunction have taken.
There is no asymetrical reality here, except insofar that the people of the six counties remain pretty much the only people in Europe without elected representation to govern them.

[holdini]

A UI can only happen with a revival in the Protestant Republican tradition in the North; many of the actions of the PIRA campaign didn't exactly help that cause....

Tom Pauline for president!

Paulin.

And as I understand it he is a Unionist, albeit one who wants the UK to become a Republic.

Well, he is an Englishman from Leeds, hardly suprising there.

[holdini]

So if the freestate economy bust you'd join the United Kingdom if you could?

But its not is it....

STUNG!

Economics will never unite this country, the division is too deep for the lining of pockets to change that. All that is needed is the promotion of Republicanism within the Protestant community. Id would say upwards of 70% of the Northern Protestant population don't know that the UNited Irishmen was formed by Belfast Presbyterians.